US data mixed; Canada housing markets stop falling; Singapore GDP contracts; OECD sees tight labour markets; NZ in Top 10 best place list; UST 10yr 3.51%; gold down and oil stable; NZ$1 = 62 USc; TWI-5 = 69.8

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that so long as labour markets stay positive, soft landings are the worst that is in store for 2023. The big global economies seem to be handling the unexpected bumps that get thrown up.

But first, American retail sales fell in March from February to be just +2.9% higher than year ago levels and far less than inflation's bite. It was a result that surprised analysts who expected a -0.4% month-on-month fall when they got -1.0%.

But other American indicators weren't so negative. Industrial production rose +0.4% in March from February to be +0.5% higher than year ago levels. This data is 'real' without inflation.

And consumer sentiment, as measured in the widely-watched University of Michigan survey rose too. That shift wasn't expected, but it was in both views of current conditions and expected future conditions. However, Americans apparently think inflation will rise (contrary to most other data that shows it falling).

Meanwhile, the leakage from deposits at US bank accounts, which fell sharply from the start of March (-US$400 bln or -2.3%) are stabilising in the April updates. But that masks big shifts from smaller banks to the majors, who are now reporting bumper profits. And too, big funds like Blackrock. During this time the Federal Reserve stepped in with more market support, suspending its tightening. Although over this past week, it has resumed the drawdown.

In Canada, their real estate industry is talking 'green shoots' as they enter their Spring selling season. After declining for 12 consecutive months, their national home price index rose +0.2% to C$709,000 (NZ$855,000) from February to March. Their market suffers from an unusually low number of listings available. But their much higher interest rates will make it challenging to build any sort of meaningful recovery.

Late yesterday, Singapore surprised analysts with an unexpectedly weak Q1-2023 GDP result, down -0.7% from the prior quarter. Actually the Q4-2022 result showed virtually no growth, so they are knocking on the door of 'recession'. Their year-on-year +2.1% rise in 2022 crashed to just +0.1% in Q1-2023 from Q1-2022.

The OECD is pointing out that that global labour markets remain very tight in developed countries. In February, the unemployment rate remained at its record low in the OECD (4.8%) and this is despite the Euro area still much higher (6.6%). The unemployment rate was stable or decreased in more than 70% of OECD countries, but close to its lowest level in only seven countries, including Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. It remained stable in Canada at 5.0% in March 2023 for the fifth consecutive month, while it fell slightly to 3.5% in the United States.

The Economist is saying New Zealand is the ninth best place to do business in a list topped by Singapore. The US is fourth on this list. Australia doesn't make the top ten. China is noted because it has fallen sharply down the list.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.51%, and up another +6 bps. The UST 2-10 rate curve is marginally more inverted at -58 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is now at -121 bps and marginally more inverted too. And their 30 day-10yr curve is now inverted at -73 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up +8 bps at 3.41%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.85%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is up another +5 bps at 4.15%.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 was down -0.2% at the end of its Friday trading session and booked a net +1.3% weekly gain. European markets were all up about +0.5% in their overnight trading sessions. Tokyo ended its Friday up +1.2% to lock in a +3.0% weekly rise. Hong Kong was up +0.5% to rise +1.5% for the week. Shanghai recovered +0.6% yesterday but that only left it with a +0.2% weekly gain. The ASX200 ended its session up +0.5% yesterday, locking in a +1.7% weekly raise. And the NZX50 ended its Friday session down -0.4% to barely hold a weekly 'gain' of +0.1%.

The price of gold is at US$2005/oz and down -US$39 from this time yesterday. A week ago it was at US$2008/oz, so actually very little net change.

And oil prices are at just over US$82/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just under US$86/bbl. Neither is any material change from yesterday. But a week ago these prices were US$1.50 lower so the net move up since then has been a modest +2% or less.

The Kiwi dollar is more than -1c lower against the USD and now at 62 USc. Against the Aussie we are have softened to 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we have fallen more than -½c, now at 56.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 69.8 and now its lowest in almost six months.

The bitcoin price is again little-changed, still at US$30,324 and down a mere +0.4% from this time yesterday. But a week ago it was at US$27,924 sot it has been a major +8.6% move up from then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at +/- 1.7%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».