US data surprises with improvements but major risks remain; IMF sees China, India and the US supplying half of global growth; Singapore does its own pro-growth thing; UST 10yr 3.59%; gold and oil lower; NZ$1 = 61.7 USc; TWI-5 = 69.5

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news China seems to be emerging from its doldrums.

But first up today, and to the surprise of many, the local Fed's factory survey for New York State reported a sharp improvement - and it was across the board. New order inflows were at a one year high, and activity perked right up. But cost pressures remain unchanged. However, firms expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, with measures of capital expenditures and employment also rising. This survey hasn't been very positive for a few months now, so this is a 'welcome' improvement locally.

Also improving is American home builder sentiment. It rose for a fourth month in April, a fresh high since September and came in better than expected.

And the Wall Street earnings reports for Q1 are off to surprisingly good start. Of the 30 S&P 500 companies comprising 10% of the index that have reported results so far, 90% have easily beat earnings-per-share estimates while three quarters of them have topped sales forecasts.

For some regional banks reporting, it is exposing the size of deposit flight. Regulators will be nervous.

Despite all this, the US Congress's debt ceiling game of chicken is nearing a flash point with Republicans pushing to gut most social programs - except Medicare, Medicaid and Obamacare. It is a brinkmanship game that is raising US bond yields, mainly because the negotiators are taking extreme positions.

Also potentially inflationary, there is a rising threat of strike action at US West Coast ports in coming weeks.

Separately, IMF data shows that China will be the top source of economic growth in the next five years, followed by India and the US. More than 20% of that growth will come from China's expansion, with more than 10% from each of the other two. Indonesia is the next largest, followed by Germany, Turkey and Japan.

Singaporean exports rose in March from February and by much more than expected. A small rise was anticipated after a weak February. But in fact the rise was substantial, paring back a long series of declines so that year-on-year their non-oil exports are down 'only' -8.3%, half the drop in February.

Meanwhile, its ruling party said the City-State will push through increases to GST (from 7% to 9%), but it has no plans to go down the path of welfarism - it is ruling out becoming like a Nordic state.

In Australia, banks both large and small are 'slashing' their fixed rate home loan offers. CBA today cut its advertised 3 year fixed rate by -40 bps to 5.59%. (Their new 'comparison rate' which loads in the myriad costs Aussie banks also charge - which NZ banks don't - takes that rate to 7.20%. For perspective, ASB, CBA's New Zealand subsidiary offers a 3 year fixed rate at 6.59%).

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.59%, and up +7 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at -61 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is now at -115 bps and marginally less inverted. And their 30 day-10yr curve is now inverted at -43 bps and inverted substantially less. The Australian ten year bond is up +5 bps at 3.46%. The China Govt ten year bond is still at 2.86%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year remains little-changed at 4.14%.

On Wall Street, the S&P5400 has opened its Monday trade up a minor +0.1% after being lower earlier. Overnight, European markets closed mixed between London's +0.1% rise and Paris' -0.3% dip. Yesterday Tokyo ended up a very minor +0.1%. Hong Kong ended its Monday session up +1.7% with a strong afternoon trade. Shanghai rose all day to be up +1.4% at its close. The ASX200 ended its Monday session up +0.3% while the NZX50 had a closing spurt to end up +0.5%.

The price of gold is at US$1995/oz and down -US$9 from this time yesterday.

And oil prices are at down -US$1.50 and just under US$81/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just under US$84.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar has moved down further against the USD and now at 61.7 USc and a -½c fall. Against the Aussie we are have fallen -40 bps to 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 56.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 69.5, down -30 bps and still its lowest in almost six months.

The bitcoin price is lower today, now at US$29,502 and down -2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».