A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; households suffer higher inflation, mortgage interest at record highs, housing market slumps, credit stress stirs, swaps stable, NZD little-changed, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has trimmed -10 bps from it two year fixed rate, taking it to 6.49%. They have cut -60 bps from their three year rate to 5.99%. These changes follow Westpac (and BNZ).

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS, First Credit Union, and Heretaunga Building Society all raised term deposit rates today.

A PERCENT MORE FOR HOUSEHOLDS
Statistics New Zealand said the cost of living for households rose +7.7% in the year to March 2023, boosted by higher rents and interest payments and increased grocery food, fruit and vegetables prices. This household measure is different to the general CPI which rose +6.7% in the same period. The household living costs measure ran at an annualised rate of +4.1% in the March quarter from the prior quarter, so the rate is slowing recently. (The equivalent Q1-23-from-Q4-22 annualised rate was +4.5% and also slowing.)

NEW HIGH SPOTS
New Reserve Bank mortgage figures show homeowners paid close to $4 bln in interest during the March quarter, while total scheduled repayments topped $6 bln for the first time since the RBNZ started publishing this data.

MARKET SLUMP EXTENDS
The national housing market is headed for a hard winter with stock levels up, sales down, and new listings at a record low, according to realestate.co.nz data. (We may well get the widely-watched Barfoot Auckland April data tomorrow.)

CREDIT STRESS TURNING UP
According to the Insolvency Service, there were -5% fewer personal bankruptcies in Q1-2023 than there were in Q1-2022. But there were +7.5% more No Asset Procedures on the same basis, and there were more than double the company liquidations handled by them.

INCENTIVISED BY NOMINAL RATE RISES
Total deposits at bank grew only +$666 mln in March from February according to data released by the RBNZ. That is the lowest monthly rise since 2018 and is part of a fast loss of momentum in 2023. For the year to March the rise was only +$8.8 bln also a low since their S40 series started in 2017. For households, total bank account balances rose +$10.0 bln in the year to March. That was made up of a fall in transaction account balances of -$9.4 bln, a fall in savings account balances of -$5.6 bln, and a rush into term deposits of +$25.0 bln in the year. For the month of March alone, term deposit balances grew +$2.3 bln. Households are3 very incentivised by rising term deposit rates even if after tax, after inflation they are still quite negative.

ANOTHER SCAM WARNING
CertNZ is warning about new phishing attacks. They are scams using text messages, phone calls, and emails to target New Zealanders. In some cases, these scams ask you to install remote access software to access further personal or financial information and send text messages using your device. The messages claim to be from various organisations, like your bank, Inland Revenue, NZTA, postal services, computer security software and others. The messages often claim an unusual payment was detected, tax refunds are available, you have unpaid tolls or fees requiring payment. They will contain a link to visit or a phone number to call.

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SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably slightly lower today. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 5.58% and 33 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.35% and up +8 bps from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.79%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.07%, and that is down -7 bps from this morning, now above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.02% which is down -10 bps from Friday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.45% and up +2 bps from this morning's open.

EQUITIES UP EXCEPT THE NZX
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late trade today. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.7%. Hong Kong is closed today but reopens tomorrow as normal but Shanghai will be closed until Thursday this week for its Golden Week holiday. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open tomorrow up +0.4%.

GOLD RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold is softer from this morning, down -US$8/oz at US$1983/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar remains at 61.8 USc with little-change from where we opened today. Against the Aussie we are still at 93.4 AUc. And against the euro we are holding at 56.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 69.9.

BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price has fallen further after yesterday's dip, now at US$28,647 and down -3.3% from this morning. The big drop happened at 1:30pm today. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».