A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; building consent levels soft, Govt bonds in hot demand, commodity prices sag, BNZ shines, swaps and NZD on hold, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None today so far.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank has raised term deposit rates. Their new 6 month rate is now 5.30% and their new 1 year rate is now 5.65%. Update: ANZ has raised some rates too. Their new 6 month rate is now 5.35%. Their one year rate is unchanged at 5.70%.

DOWN BY A QUARTER FROM MARCH LAST YEAR
There has been a big drop in the number of building consents issued in March, suggesting the construction industry is headed for a sharp downturn.

PHASE ONE FAST TRACK
In Auckland, 'fast-track' approval has been given to consent for housing on the old Unitec site. This is phase one to build build 50 residential units, applied for by the Ngāti Whātua Rōpū. Readers may recall this project got a lot of airtime when Phil Twyford was Minister of Housing and pushing KiwiBuild.

NON-RES CONSENTS STILL HIGH
Meanwhile, non-residential consents are still coming through at elevated levels. However some of this is just cost inflation. Infometrics says: "Total non-residential consent values increased strongly again in March 2023, though high building cost inflation means nominal value growth continues to obscure the underlying volume of consented non-residential construction work."

DEMAND EXCEEDED SUPPLY BY MORE THAN 3x
Today's Government bond tender offered $400 mln in three maturities and $1.343 bln was offered in 111 bids. The $200 mln May 2026 tranche was won by just 5 bidders who won at an average yield of 4.32%. The May 2032 $150 mln was won at an average yield of 4.13% by 24 bidders. The May 2041 $50 mln tranche was won by 13 bidders at a yield of 4.50%.

COMMODITY PRICES SAG AGAIN
Commodity prices in world prices fell in April from March at a -20% annualised rate and are now -17% lower than year ago levels, so the recent fall is running a bit higher than the year-on-year rate. In NZD terms the fall is less. Dairy and forestry prices led these retreats in the ANZ commodity price index.

BNZ SHINES
BNZ has reported its interim profit is up +14% as net interest income and margin surge. Their half-year profit topped $800 mln, with their CEO saying the bank is well placed to support customers who are finding things tough.

MORE WIND POWER
51% State-owned and partially listed Mercury Energy today opened its Turitea Wind Farm in Manawatū, one that alone adds +2% additional renewable energy to the country’s National Grid. It is the country's largest wind farm and will produce on average 840GWh each year, enough to power 120,000 households (two Dunedins?) or 375,000 EVs.

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SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.60% and 35 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.34% and down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.78%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.18%, and that is up +2 bps from this time yesterday, and still well above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.06% which down -5 bps from yesterday. See this local yield curve review. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.33% and down another -11 bps from this time yesterday. US Fed Powell's uncertainty in his press conference about whether there would be a US recession drove nervousness, even though the Fed's Statement brought little reaction..

EQUITIES MIXED
The S&P500 ended down a sharpish -0.7% on Wall Street in its Wednesday session after those Powell comments. Tokyo is on holiday again today. Hong Kong has opened up +1.4% after yesterday's sharpish fall. Shanghai is up +0.7% at its open after its three day holiday. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in its afternoon trade, although those Powell comments had it down further earlier. The NZX50 is down -0.1% in late trade.

GOLD RISES FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold is higher again than this time yesterday, up another +US$25/oz at US$2042/oz. Most of these gains happened in the New York session after the London market closed.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed today from this time yesterday at 62.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 93.4 AUc and holding yesterday's rise. And against the euro we are lower at 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 70.4.

BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price has risen again today, now at US$29,038 and up another +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».