A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; some more TD changes, truckometer hangs in there, Police nab big meth haul, FMA starts with the big end, swaps up, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised its 6, 9 and 12 month TD rates today but +5 and +10 bps. That takes their six month rate to 5.65% and their one year rate to 5.80%. These levels match their main rivals. NZCY Auckland switched their 12 and 18 month rates.

HANGING IN THERE
ANZ's truckometer economic activity monitor to May suggests that Q2-2023 could be delivering flat-to-positive economic growth. That isn't the decline many are expecting. This index shows that light traffic (private car activity) slipped from the prior month but the rolling average is still +2.3% higher than year-ago levels. The heavy traffic index, trucks and commercial activity, was up +1.8% from the prior month and that same annual rolling average is now ahead by +1.4%. Not spectacular but an expansion all the same.

PRESSURE RELIEF
We are now about one quarter away from when fuel costs stop pushing up our CPI data and start to weigh on it sharply. In June 2023, petrol prices are +8.3% higher than a year ago. But if petrol prices stay at these general levels until October, then they will be -7.5% lower. A big IF, I know, but it does give a sense of how this cost could impact CPI before the end of the year. (All assuming the excise tax relief doesn't end, of course.) The actual outcome will depend on the Singapore refined price, the NZD , and the taxes we levy on ourselves. Of course we should also note that we consume less transport fuel the more EVs are sold.

NABBED
The Police say they have raided many Auckland properties seizing all sorts of proceeds of crime as they intercept a major meth supply chain. The amount of this stuff addicts consume never ceases to amaze (me, at least).

IT'S JUST THE START
New and extensive reporting requirements are being imposed on 'large' enterprises soon. They are now legally required to report the role their governance body and senior management play in assessing, managing and overseeing climate risks and opportunities, how they identify, assess and manage climate-related risks as part of the risk management pillar, the strategy pillar requires businesses to consider and disclose how climate change is currently impacting them and how it might do so in the future, and finally, the metrics and targets pillar describes how a business measures and manages its climate-related risks and opportunities, including greenhouse gas emissions. These reports and obligations are initially required of large, listed issuers of quoted equity securities or quoted debt securities (over $60 million in market cap), or registered banks, credit unions and building societies with total assets over $1 bln, or licensed insurers with total assets over $1 bln or annual gross premium revenue over $250 mln, or managers of registered schemes, such as Kiwisaver schemes and investment funds, with greater than $1 bln in total assets under management. Almost certainly these limits will be lowered as the big end of town presses to ensure the costs of doing all this work is imposed on their smaller rivals. The costs will be certain. The impact on the global environment? not so much.

HIGH, BUT TOPPING OUT?
Japanese inflation ran at 3.2% in May, now the 14th straight month it has been over the Bank of Japan's 2% target. But there was no change in May from April, leading to suggestions it might be topping out.

UNINSPIRING
The Australian factory sector is still contracting. But the retreat was less so in June than in the prior two months amid improvements in supply conditions. However, new orders are still retreating which isn't a good sign. And their services sector is no longer expanding, even if it is yet to contract.

SWAPS RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are again ending today firmer especially at the longer end. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.69% and +19 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps from yesterday at 4.02%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.72% (because they are on holiday). And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.61% and up another +4 bps, and that is still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which was up +7 bps to 4.55%. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.78% and up +5 bps from yesterday.

EQUITY FALLS BUILDING
Wall Street was was up +0.4% on the S&P500 in Thursday trade. That means so far this week the S&P500 is -0.7% lower so far. Tokyo is down a sharpish -1.3% in early trade today and heading for a weekly loss of -2.7%. Hong Kong is back trading today and down -1.6% and heading for a weekly fall of at least -5.5%, a significant retreat. Shanghai is luck that it is still on holiday but its -2.4% weekly fall is now locked in. The ASX200 is down -1.0% so far today in afternoon trade heading for a -1.8% weekly loss. The NZX50 is little-changed in late trade, heading for a more modest -0.6% fall.

GOLD LOWER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1912/oz and down another -US$20 from this time yesterday. It ended in New York at US$1914/oz, and earlier in London at US$1920/oz.

NZD ADJUSTS BUT NO NET CHANGE
The Kiwi dollar has retreated today from this time yesterday, down -50 bps and now at 61.6 USc. But against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are soft at 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 69.8.

BITCOIN IN A SOFT HOLD
The bitcoin price has fallen back slightly today and is now at US$29,870 which is down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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