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Nick Smyth

Global bond sell-off pauses overnight. German 10-year had earlier hit 0% for first time since 2019. Huge move higher in NZ 2-year swap yesterday in thin conditions, with market wary of CPI next week
20th Jan 22, 7:53am
Global bond sell-off pauses overnight. German 10-year had earlier hit 0% for first time since 2019. Huge move higher in NZ 2-year swap yesterday in thin conditions, with market wary of CPI next week
Global rates continue to trend higher - US 10yr hits 2-year high with market pricing small chance of 50bps Fed hike in March. Equities under pressure again
19th Jan 22, 8:04am
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Global rates continue to trend higher - US 10yr hits 2-year high with market pricing small chance of 50bps Fed hike in March. Equities under pressure again
Global rates continue to trend higher as market brings forward central bank tightening with 4 Fed hikes now fully priced for 2022. NZ curve steepening continues with global moves dragging long-term NZ rates higher
18th Jan 22, 7:48am
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Global rates continue to trend higher as market brings forward central bank tightening with 4 Fed hikes now fully priced for 2022. NZ curve steepening continues with global moves dragging long-term NZ rates higher
US rates surge higher after Fed signals earlier rate hikes and balance sheet unwind - market prices first Fed hike in March. Higher real rates, commodity prices, cyclical stocks point to more optimism around global growth and Omicron risks
17th Jan 22, 8:26am
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US rates surge higher after Fed signals earlier rate hikes and balance sheet unwind - market prices first Fed hike in March. Higher real rates, commodity prices, cyclical stocks point to more optimism around global growth and Omicron risks
Equities lower, yield curves flatter as Fed official says March is a "live meeting" for a rate hike Omicron continues to spread rapidly. Biden's $1.75tn Build Back Better bill now looks unlikely to pass
20th Dec 21, 7:51am
Equities lower, yield curves flatter as Fed official says March is a "live meeting" for a rate hike Omicron continues to spread rapidly. Biden's $1.75tn Build Back Better bill now looks unlikely to pass
Fed signals three hikes next year. BoE raises rates/ ECB to taper its bond buying next year but signals no hikes in 2022
17th Dec 21, 8:02am
Fed signals three hikes next year. BoE raises rates/ ECB to taper its bond buying next year but signals no hikes in 2022
US CPI hits highest level in almost 40 years amidst broadening inflation pressures. Fed expected to announce a faster tapering pace later this week. S&P500 closes at new record high, oil prices increase on Omicron optimism
13th Dec 21, 7:54am
US CPI hits highest level in almost 40 years amidst broadening inflation pressures. Fed expected to announce a faster tapering pace later this week. S&P500 closes at new record high, oil prices increase on Omicron optimism
Equities and bond yields pull back slightly. China announces measures to dampen CNY strength. NZD back below 0.68 amidst a firmer USD
10th Dec 21, 8:03am
Equities and bond yields pull back slightly. China announces measures to dampen CNY strength. NZD back below 0.68 amidst a firmer USD
Risk-off moves across markets. Equities (especially tech) and rates tumble. US payrolls report a mixed bag. Relentless yield curve flattening in New Zealand
6th Dec 21, 7:46am
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Risk-off moves across markets. Equities (especially tech) and rates tumble. US payrolls report a mixed bag. Relentless yield curve flattening in New Zealand
Risk appetite rebounds. Markets remain volatile and sentiment driven as investors await more information on Omicron. Fed officials repeat support for a faster tapering
3rd Dec 21, 7:53am
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Risk appetite rebounds. Markets remain volatile and sentiment driven as investors await more information on Omicron. Fed officials repeat support for a faster tapering
New Covid-19 variant (Omicron) spooks markets. Equities and oil prices tumble, government bond yields fall sharply. Market moves exacerbated by thin conditions after Thanksgiving
29th Nov 21, 7:51am
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New Covid-19 variant (Omicron) spooks markets. Equities and oil prices tumble, government bond yields fall sharply. Market moves exacerbated by thin conditions after Thanksgiving
FOMC minutes show discussion around a faster taper, supporting US short-term rates and the USD. NZD hits three-month low overnight, EUR and GBP hovering near 12-month lows
26th Nov 21, 7:51am
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FOMC minutes show discussion around a faster taper, supporting US short-term rates and the USD. NZD hits three-month low overnight, EUR and GBP hovering near 12-month lows
Austria announces nationwide lockdown, hitting risk sentiment on Friday. Global long-term rates down sharply, oil prices plummet. Key Fed officials signal possibility of a faster tapering, opening the door to earlier rate rises
22nd Nov 21, 7:33am
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Austria announces nationwide lockdown, hitting risk sentiment on Friday. Global long-term rates down sharply, oil prices plummet. Key Fed officials signal possibility of a faster tapering, opening the door to earlier rate rises
US Fed's Williams finally acknowledges growing underlying inflation pressures in the US. RBNZ 2-year inflation expectations hit a 10-year high driving NZD outperformance and another surge in the NZ 2-year swap rate
19th Nov 21, 7:56am
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US Fed's Williams finally acknowledges growing underlying inflation pressures in the US. RBNZ 2-year inflation expectations hit a 10-year high driving NZD outperformance and another surge in the NZ 2-year swap rate
US rates consolidate after their big moves higher earlier in the week. US 10-year breakeven inflation hits highest level since 2005. High inflation blamed for slump in US consumer confidence
15th Nov 21, 7:49am
US rates consolidate after their big moves higher earlier in the week. US 10-year breakeven inflation hits highest level since 2005. High inflation blamed for slump in US consumer confidence
USD continues to rally. Equities rebound modestly following their post-CPI sell offs. Commodity currencies underperform
12th Nov 21, 7:56am
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USD continues to rally. Equities rebound modestly following their post-CPI sell offs. Commodity currencies underperform
Nonfarm payrolls beat market expectations. But US rates drop (US 10yr -7bps) and market pushes back Fed rate hike expectations
8th Nov 21, 7:58am
Nonfarm payrolls beat market expectations. But US rates drop (US 10yr -7bps) and market pushes back Fed rate hike expectations
BoE shocks market by keeping rates on hold overnight. UK rates down by as much as 20bps, GBP tumbles. Global bond yields lower in sympathy
5th Nov 21, 7:59am
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BoE shocks market by keeping rates on hold overnight. UK rates down by as much as 20bps, GBP tumbles. Global bond yields lower in sympathy
More strong inflation data in the US and Europe, with markets bringing forward rate hike bets. RBA sends similar signal
1st Nov 21, 7:48am
More strong inflation data in the US and Europe, with markets bringing forward rate hike bets. RBA sends similar signal
Huge volatility in Australian and NZ rates yesterday after RBA decides against enforcing its Yield Curve Control target. NZ 2-year swap rate now up 92.5bps this month alone, on track for its biggest monthly rise since June 1994
29th Oct 21, 8:01am
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Huge volatility in Australian and NZ rates yesterday after RBA decides against enforcing its Yield Curve Control target. NZ 2-year swap rate now up 92.5bps this month alone, on track for its biggest monthly rise since June 1994
Inflation expectations continue to increase with WTI futures hitting a 7-year high, US natural gas prices jumping. S&P500 hits fresh all-time high ahead of a deluge of corporate earnings reports
26th Oct 21, 7:53am
Inflation expectations continue to increase with WTI futures hitting a 7-year high, US natural gas prices jumping. S&P500 hits fresh all-time high ahead of a deluge of corporate earnings reports
Market continues to increase Fed rate hike expectations as inflation concerns mount. S&P500 flat overnight, commodity prices fall
22nd Oct 21, 8:02am
Market continues to increase Fed rate hike expectations as inflation concerns mount. S&P500 flat overnight, commodity prices fall
One-year and two-year New Zealand swap rates in biggest one-day rises since before the OCR was introduced
20th Oct 21, 8:04am
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One-year and two-year New Zealand swap rates in biggest one-day rises since before the OCR was introduced
Equities and commodities higher capping off a good week for risk assets. Global rates higher as market continues to pull forward Fed rate hikes. Inflation expectations continue to push higher
18th Oct 21, 7:39am
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Equities and commodities higher capping off a good week for risk assets. Global rates higher as market continues to pull forward Fed rate hikes. Inflation expectations continue to push higher
Risk on session overnight - equities, commodities, NZD and AUD all higher. US 10-year rate slips further despite yesterday's strong CPI release
15th Oct 21, 7:49am
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Risk on session overnight - equities, commodities, NZD and AUD all higher. US 10-year rate slips further despite yesterday's strong CPI release