Nick Smyth

Bond yields and equities rebound modestly overnight, USD weaker. NZ curve flattening continues - 2y10y swap curve approaching record levels of inversion

Bond yields and equities rebound modestly overnight, USD weaker. NZ curve flattening continues - 2y10y swap curve approaching record levels of inversion

Good news is bad news - US Treasury yields much higher, US equities weaker, USD rebounds on surprisingly strong US ISM services index

Good news is bad news - US Treasury yields much higher, US equities weaker, USD rebounds on surprisingly strong US ISM services index

US rates higher ahead of Powell, equities slightly lower. Optimism around an eventual end to the China zero-Covid policy continues to grow

US rates higher ahead of Powell, equities slightly lower. Optimism around an eventual end to the China zero-Covid policy continues to grow

Chinese assets rally as the authorities take steps to increase vaccination rates among the elderly, seen as another step towards eventually ending the zero-Covid policy. CNH appreciates more than 1%, Hang Seng surges 5%

Chinese assets rally as the authorities take steps to increase vaccination rates among the elderly, seen as another step towards eventually ending the zero-Covid policy. CNH appreciates more than 1%, Hang Seng surges 5%

Markets trade with a risk-off tone after the weekend anti-government protests in China. Market reaction relatively contained so far - police deter further protests and markets sense the inevitable end to the zero-Covid policy next year

Markets trade with a risk-off tone after the weekend anti-government protests in China. Market reaction relatively contained so far - police deter further protests and markets sense the inevitable end to the zero-Covid policy next year

China growth concerns resurface. Bond market curve flattening trend continues. Market prices 70% chance of a +75bps RBNZ hike tomorrow

China growth concerns resurface. Bond market curve flattening trend continues. Market prices 70% chance of a +75bps RBNZ hike tomorrow

Currencies little changed, consolidating after their recent big moves. UST 10-year rate continues to grind lower and 2y10y yield curve reaches its most inverted level since early 1980s, warning of recession next year

Currencies little changed, consolidating after their recent big moves. UST 10-year rate continues to grind lower and 2y10y yield curve reaches its most inverted level since early 1980s, warning of recession next year

Weaker than expected US PPI supports the inflation-is-heading-down narrative. Weaker China activity data looked-through, with focus on the better outlook on policy support

Weaker than expected US PPI supports the inflation-is-heading-down narrative. Weaker China activity data looked-through, with focus on the better outlook on policy support

Markets continue to digest US CPI downside surprise. Equities rally hard, USD weakens further, commodities surge. Big falls in NZ rates as markets price the November RBNZ meeting as a 50-50 bet on a 50bps hike and a 75bps move

Markets continue to digest US CPI downside surprise. Equities rally hard, USD weakens further, commodities surge. Big falls in NZ rates as markets price the November RBNZ meeting as a 50-50 bet on a 50bps hike and a 75bps move

Investors waiting on US midterm election results and US CPI later this week. Global rates lower overnight while equities continue to recover

Investors waiting on US midterm election results and US CPI later this week. Global rates lower overnight while equities continue to recover

Optimism around Chinese reopening likely to be short lived, with government officials doubling down on zero-Covid over the weekend. Market pares back Fed rate hike expectations, USD falls sharply

Optimism around Chinese reopening likely to be short lived, with government officials doubling down on zero-Covid over the weekend. Market pares back Fed rate hike expectations, USD falls sharply

US Fed's higher-for-longer messaging continues to sink in for markets. US rates push higher, USD stronger across the board, equities weaken further. NZGBs finally find some support at yesterday's bond tender

US Fed's higher-for-longer messaging continues to sink in for markets. US rates push higher, USD stronger across the board, equities weaken further. NZGBs finally find some support at yesterday's bond tender

ECB raises rates by 75bps. Lower European rates spill over to other bond markets - US 10y back below 4%. NZD outperforms. Big falls in NZ bond rates as market gears up for WGBI bond index inclusion for NZGBs on 1 November

ECB raises rates by 75bps. Lower European rates spill over to other bond markets - US 10y back below 4%. NZD outperforms. Big falls in NZ bond rates as market gears up for WGBI bond index inclusion for NZGBs on 1 November

Global rates continue to push relentlessly higher - US 10-year breaks above 4.20%. USD/JPY breaks above 150 for the first time since 1990 - market wary of further FX intervention from Japanese authorities

Global rates continue to push relentlessly higher - US 10-year breaks above 4.20%. USD/JPY breaks above 150 for the first time since 1990 - market wary of further FX intervention from Japanese authorities

Stronger ISM Services index drives a big lift in global rates and the USD. US 10-year back above 3.75%, EUR back below 0.99. OPEC+ announced 2m barrels per day reduction to oil supply quotas

Stronger ISM Services index drives a big lift in global rates and the USD. US 10-year back above 3.75%, EUR back below 0.99. OPEC+ announced 2m barrels per day reduction to oil supply quotas