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Nick Smyth

Nick Smyth's picture
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3 years 6 months

Articles by Nick Smyth

30th Jul 21, 7:56am
US Q2 GDP weaker than expected, but with strong consumption and investment. Equities and bond yields increase, USD continues to fall. NZD back above 0.70 with gains on all the key crosses
US Q2 GDP weaker than expected, but with strong consumption and investment. Equities and bond yields increase, USD continues to fall. NZD back above 0.70 with gains on all the key crosses
30th Jul 21, 7:56am
26th Jul 21, 7:36am
Equity markets reach new record highs, supported by corporate earnings expectations. Global rates and currencies little changed on Friday. FOMC meeting, Australian CPI the key highlights this week
Equity markets reach new record highs, supported by corporate earnings expectations. Global rates and currencies little changed on Friday. FOMC meeting, Australian CPI the key highlights this week
26th Jul 21, 7:36am
16th Jul 21, 7:49am
Market sentiment turns more cautious. Equity markets lower, US 10-year falls below 1.30%. USD strengthens to near a three-month high. NZ 2-year swap jumps another 6bps ahead of the CPI release this morning
Market sentiment turns more cautious. Equity markets lower, US 10-year falls below 1.30%. USD strengthens to near a three-month high. NZ 2-year swap jumps another 6bps ahead of the CPI release this morning
16th Jul 21, 7:49am
15th Jul 21, 7:48am
RBNZ announces an end to bond buying - market prices ~70% chance of an August OCR hike. US 10-year and USD pull back after yesterday's post-US CPI increases. Bank of Canada tapers QE, but market expected more hawkish guidance
RBNZ announces an end to bond buying - market prices ~70% chance of an August OCR hike. US 10-year and USD pull back after yesterday's post-US CPI increases. Bank of Canada tapers QE, but market expected more hawkish guidance
15th Jul 21, 7:48am
14th Jul 21, 7:49am
US CPI much higher than expected again. Yield curve initially flattens on Fed rate hike risk before weak 30-year auction drags long-end rates higher. Equity markets give back earlier gains as US 10-year rate jumps
US CPI much higher than expected again. Yield curve initially flattens on Fed rate hike risk before weak 30-year auction drags long-end rates higher. Equity markets give back earlier gains as US 10-year rate jumps
14th Jul 21, 7:49am
13th Jul 21, 7:52am
Limited moves overnight as markets await key event risks later in the week. US equities and USD slightly higher, US 10-year consolidates. US CPI release the highlight tonight, with core inflation expected to hit 4% y/y
Limited moves overnight as markets await key event risks later in the week. US equities and USD slightly higher, US 10-year consolidates. US CPI release the highlight tonight, with core inflation expected to hit 4% y/y
13th Jul 21, 7:52am
12th Jul 21, 7:37am
Markets move from risk-off to risk-on. Sentiment turns around as PBOC cuts RRR, China credit growth surprises. US 10-year rebounds to 1.36%, S&P500 closes at a new record high
Markets move from risk-off to risk-on. Sentiment turns around as PBOC cuts RRR, China credit growth surprises. US 10-year rebounds to 1.36%, S&P500 closes at a new record high
12th Jul 21, 7:37am
9th Jul 21, 7:51am
1
Risk-off moves overnight. US 10-year hits 1.25%, S&P500 falls 1%. AUD prints fresh YTD low, NZD drops to 0.6940. Big fall in long-term NZ government bond yields
Risk-off moves overnight. US 10-year hits 1.25%, S&P500 falls 1%. AUD prints fresh YTD low, NZD drops to 0.6940. Big fall in long-term NZ government bond yields
9th Jul 21, 7:51am
5th Jul 21, 7:36am
US nonfarm payrolls report a mixed bag - job growth stronger but unemployment rate ticks higher. Market reaction suggests investors think the Fed has time on its side to decide on tapering
US nonfarm payrolls report a mixed bag - job growth stronger but unemployment rate ticks higher. Market reaction suggests investors think the Fed has time on its side to decide on tapering
5th Jul 21, 7:36am
2nd Jul 21, 7:47am
Market moves reasonably subdued as investors wait on US payrolls tonight. Equities slightly higher, US 10-year back to almost 1.50%. USD strengthens, taking the NZD down towards its recent lows
Market moves reasonably subdued as investors wait on US payrolls tonight. Equities slightly higher, US 10-year back to almost 1.50%. USD strengthens, taking the NZD down towards its recent lows
2nd Jul 21, 7:47am
28th Jun 21, 8:04am
Markets continue to recover from the hawkish June Fed meeting. S&P500 ends last week at a record high, US 10-year rate up above 1.50%. Market continues to bring forward RBNZ rate hike pricing - November now seen as a greater than 50% chance
Markets continue to recover from the hawkish June Fed meeting. S&P500 ends last week at a record high, US 10-year rate up above 1.50%. Market continues to bring forward RBNZ rate hike pricing - November now seen as a greater than 50% chance
28th Jun 21, 8:04am
24th Jun 21, 7:59am
PMI data point to rapid global economic recovery. NZD and AUD continue to recover from their post-FOMC sell-offs. Wellington moves to Covid Alert Level 2, but limited reaction so far in markets
PMI data point to rapid global economic recovery. NZD and AUD continue to recover from their post-FOMC sell-offs. Wellington moves to Covid Alert Level 2, but limited reaction so far in markets
24th Jun 21, 7:59am
21st Jun 21, 7:40am
Risk assets remain under pressure post-FOMC. Yield curves continue to flatten hard as markets pull forward rate hike pricing. Market now pricing almost 70% chance of Feb-22 RBNZ hike
Risk assets remain under pressure post-FOMC. Yield curves continue to flatten hard as markets pull forward rate hike pricing. Market now pricing almost 70% chance of Feb-22 RBNZ hike
21st Jun 21, 7:40am
17th Jun 21, 7:49am
FOMC 'dot plot' indicates two rate hikes in 2023. Immediate reaction sees bond yields and USD spike higher, equities lower. NZ GDP this morning, RBA Governor Lowe speech and Aussie employment this afternoon
FOMC 'dot plot' indicates two rate hikes in 2023. Immediate reaction sees bond yields and USD spike higher, equities lower. NZ GDP this morning, RBA Governor Lowe speech and Aussie employment this afternoon
17th Jun 21, 7:49am
16th Jun 21, 7:56am
Markets trade cautiously ahead of key FOMC meeting tomorrow morning. Equities slightly lower, USD higher, most commodities (ex oil) softer. US 10-year rate continues to trade around 1.50% ahead of the Fed
Markets trade cautiously ahead of key FOMC meeting tomorrow morning. Equities slightly lower, USD higher, most commodities (ex oil) softer. US 10-year rate continues to trade around 1.50% ahead of the Fed
16th Jun 21, 7:56am
10th Jun 21, 7:48am
2
US 10-year rate breaks the bottom of the range - now 1.49%. Little movement in equities or currencies ahead of US CPI, ECB tonight. NZD underperforms again - back below 0.72
US 10-year rate breaks the bottom of the range - now 1.49%. Little movement in equities or currencies ahead of US CPI, ECB tonight. NZD underperforms again - back below 0.72
10th Jun 21, 7:48am
8th Jun 21, 7:50am
US nonfarm payrolls seen as a 'goldilocks' outcome - strong enough to suggest recovery on track but not too strong to trigger an imminent Fed tapering decision. Equity markets move higher, bond yields and USD lower. RBNZ reduces bond buying pace this week
US nonfarm payrolls seen as a 'goldilocks' outcome - strong enough to suggest recovery on track but not too strong to trigger an imminent Fed tapering decision. Equity markets move higher, bond yields and USD lower. RBNZ reduces bond buying pace this week
8th Jun 21, 7:50am
4th Jun 21, 7:56am
Firm US economic data sees higher rates and stronger USD. Equities down but pare losses. Nonfarm payrolls the focus tonight, with the market seeing this as key to Fed tapering discussions
Firm US economic data sees higher rates and stronger USD. Equities down but pare losses. Nonfarm payrolls the focus tonight, with the market seeing this as key to Fed tapering discussions
4th Jun 21, 7:56am
3rd Jun 21, 7:51am
Equities, bond and currency moves muted as market waits on payrolls. NZD underperforms over the past 24 hours. More RBNZ-speak yesterday, with the message that rates will eventually need to rise
Equities, bond and currency moves muted as market waits on payrolls. NZD underperforms over the past 24 hours. More RBNZ-speak yesterday, with the message that rates will eventually need to rise
3rd Jun 21, 7:51am
28th May 21, 7:51am
Bond yields rebound (US 10-year back above 1.60%), equities little moved. NZD still trading around 0.73, NZD/AUD nudges up to a four-month high. NZ 5-year swap rate jumps another 8bps as market digests the RBNZ MPS
Bond yields rebound (US 10-year back above 1.60%), equities little moved. NZD still trading around 0.73, NZD/AUD nudges up to a four-month high. NZ 5-year swap rate jumps another 8bps as market digests the RBNZ MPS
28th May 21, 7:51am
24th May 21, 7:36am
Little movement in markets on Friday night; markets look through upbeat PMIs in Europe and the US. EUR falls after Lagarde seems to push back against ECB tapering. RBNZ MPS the highlight this week
Little movement in markets on Friday night; markets look through upbeat PMIs in Europe and the US. EUR falls after Lagarde seems to push back against ECB tapering. RBNZ MPS the highlight this week
24th May 21, 7:36am
21st May 21, 7:50am
Market sentiment recovers from the tapering talk in the Fed minutes. Equities bounce back, USD and bond yields lower. NZ Government announces expansionary Budget yesterday
Market sentiment recovers from the tapering talk in the Fed minutes. Equities bounce back, USD and bond yields lower. NZ Government announces expansionary Budget yesterday
21st May 21, 7:50am
20th May 21, 7:52am
2
Fed minutes show "a number" of members think tapering discussion might be appropriate pushing US rates and the USD higher. Commodity prices fall, seeing NZD decline over 1%. Bitcoin has a meltdown, before recovering. Eyes on NZ Budget
Fed minutes show "a number" of members think tapering discussion might be appropriate pushing US rates and the USD higher. Commodity prices fall, seeing NZD decline over 1%. Bitcoin has a meltdown, before recovering. Eyes on NZ Budget
20th May 21, 7:52am
14th May 21, 8:02am
US equity markets recover. US 10-year rate moves back to 1.66%. Fed officials continue to claim current inflation pressures will be temporary. NZ 10-year swap rate breaks above 2% for the first time since March
US equity markets recover. US 10-year rate moves back to 1.66%. Fed officials continue to claim current inflation pressures will be temporary. NZ 10-year swap rate breaks above 2% for the first time since March
14th May 21, 8:02am
10th May 21, 7:45am
Payrolls much weaker than expected fuelling expectations the Fed will stick to its ultra-accommodative stance. Commodity prices continue to surge - copper hits record high. US 10-year breakeven inflation breaks above 2.5
Payrolls much weaker than expected fuelling expectations the Fed will stick to its ultra-accommodative stance. Commodity prices continue to surge - copper hits record high. US 10-year breakeven inflation breaks above 2.5
10th May 21, 7:45am

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