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Nick Smyth
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Global rates continue to track higher, curves flatter. Market expectations for the peak in the Fed's cash rate now approaching 4.5%. Equity markets weaker as rate expectations gravitate higher
16th Sep 22, 8:00am
Global rates continue to track higher, curves flatter. Market expectations for the peak in the Fed's cash rate now approaching 4.5%. Equity markets weaker as rate expectations gravitate higher
Markets consolidate following their big moves after the US CPI surprise. JPY the big mover in currency markets, up around 1% as Japan steps up its warnings of FX intervention
15th Sep 22, 7:49am
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Markets consolidate following their big moves after the US CPI surprise. JPY the big mover in currency markets, up around 1% as Japan steps up its warnings of FX intervention
Global rates ramp higher once again after strong ISM Services index, reports UK is planning huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus. Market back to pricing a high chance of a 75bps Fed hike later this month
7th Sep 22, 7:58am
Global rates ramp higher once again after strong ISM Services index, reports UK is planning huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus. Market back to pricing a high chance of a 75bps Fed hike later this month
Oil prices higher after OPEC+ announces a small decrease to oil supply and EU-Russia dispute grows. PBOC continues to lean against yuan depreciation as USD/CNY nears 7.0
6th Sep 22, 7:51am
Oil prices higher after OPEC+ announces a small decrease to oil supply and EU-Russia dispute grows. PBOC continues to lean against yuan depreciation as USD/CNY nears 7.0
A 'goldilocks' nonfarm payrolls report - strong job growth, higher labour force participation, some moderation in wage pressures. US rates come down, with the market now seeing just over a 50% chance of a 75bps Fed hike later this month
5th Sep 22, 7:50am
A 'goldilocks' nonfarm payrolls report - strong job growth, higher labour force participation, some moderation in wage pressures. US rates come down, with the market now seeing just over a 50% chance of a 75bps Fed hike later this month
Stronger US economic data sets the stage for another surge in US rates and the USD. Global bond sell-off ripples through to NZ - big increase in NZ rates again yesterday with terminal OCR pricing nearing 4.5%
2nd Sep 22, 7:56am
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Stronger US economic data sets the stage for another surge in US rates and the USD. Global bond sell-off ripples through to NZ - big increase in NZ rates again yesterday with terminal OCR pricing nearing 4.5%
Powell delivers clear hawkish message at Jackson Hole - Fed is committed to getting inflation back to 2% even if that means some "pain" for the economy. Limited reaction in US rates, but equities tumble
29th Aug 22, 7:55am
Powell delivers clear hawkish message at Jackson Hole - Fed is committed to getting inflation back to 2% even if that means some "pain" for the economy. Limited reaction in US rates, but equities tumble
Anticipation builds ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole address tonight. Powell expected to hammer home Fed's inflation-fighting commitment. Ahead of Powell's speech see US rates fall, US 10-year fall
26th Aug 22, 8:05am
Anticipation builds ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole address tonight. Powell expected to hammer home Fed's inflation-fighting commitment. Ahead of Powell's speech see US rates fall, US 10-year fall
Fed officials priming the market for a hawkish message from Powell. NZD underperforms again. NZ curve steepens with the market growing comfortable with a 4% peak in the OCR
22nd Aug 22, 7:37am
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Fed officials priming the market for a hawkish message from Powell. NZD underperforms again. NZ curve steepens with the market growing comfortable with a 4% peak in the OCR
UK CPI inflation cracks 10% - sparking a big sell-off in global bonds. Higher rates weigh on equities and boost the USD. FOMC minutes highlight some concern around the risk of the Fed overtightening
18th Aug 22, 7:49am
UK CPI inflation cracks 10% - sparking a big sell-off in global bonds. Higher rates weigh on equities and boost the USD. FOMC minutes highlight some concern around the risk of the Fed overtightening
Risk appetite continues to improve amid signs of less pessimism in global economy. Fed officials continue to beat the drum that the job on inflation is not done yet. Big move higher in NZ rates as the market awaits this week's RBNZ MPS
15th Aug 22, 7:37am
Risk appetite continues to improve amid signs of less pessimism in global economy. Fed officials continue to beat the drum that the job on inflation is not done yet. Big move higher in NZ rates as the market awaits this week's RBNZ MPS
Markets digest the downside surprise to US CPI. Big move higher in 10-year rates and sharp steepening of curves with the market paring back rate cut expectations for next year
12th Aug 22, 7:56am
Markets digest the downside surprise to US CPI. Big move higher in 10-year rates and sharp steepening of curves with the market paring back rate cut expectations for next year
US nonfarm payrolls report blows market expectations out of the water. Market moves to price high chance of 75bps Fed hike in September. USD stronger, equity markets surprisingly resilient
8th Aug 22, 7:43am
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US nonfarm payrolls report blows market expectations out of the water. Market moves to price high chance of 75bps Fed hike in September. USD stronger, equity markets surprisingly resilient
Investors wait on US nonfarm payrolls. BoE hikes 50bps, economic projections make for grim reading: inflation to peak above 13% and UK economy to contract for 5 quarters in a row
5th Aug 22, 7:50am
Investors wait on US nonfarm payrolls. BoE hikes 50bps, economic projections make for grim reading: inflation to peak above 13% and UK economy to contract for 5 quarters in a row
Risk-on mood continues post the FOMC meeting. Wall Street up strongly, capping off best month since 2020. Equity markets supported by lower bond rates
1st Aug 22, 8:36am
Risk-on mood continues post the FOMC meeting. Wall Street up strongly, capping off best month since 2020. Equity markets supported by lower bond rates
GDP data shows US economy contracted for second quarter in a row. Markets react by further paring back Fed rate hike expectations. US rates fall sharply, US 10-year hits lowest level since April
29th Jul 22, 7:59am
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GDP data shows US economy contracted for second quarter in a row. Markets react by further paring back Fed rate hike expectations. US rates fall sharply, US 10-year hits lowest level since April
Recession concerns come back to the fore after very weak US and European PMIs. Big falls in global rates as markets pare back rate hike expectations
25th Jul 22, 7:28am
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Recession concerns come back to the fore after very weak US and European PMIs. Big falls in global rates as markets pare back rate hike expectations
ECB hikes rates 50bps, unveils new anti-fragmentation tool. Draghi's Italian govt collapses. Big fall in US rates helped by lower oil prices, tentative signs of a shift in the US labour market
22nd Jul 22, 7:48am
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ECB hikes rates 50bps, unveils new anti-fragmentation tool. Draghi's Italian govt collapses. Big fall in US rates helped by lower oil prices, tentative signs of a shift in the US labour market
US equities push higher again while US 10-year pushes up above 3%. Putin says EU gas flows will restart at 20% capacity
21st Jul 22, 7:57am
US equities push higher again while US 10-year pushes up above 3%. Putin says EU gas flows will restart at 20% capacity
Equities rally strongly overnight - S&P500 +2.5%, Dax +2.7%. EUR continues to recover, breaking 1.02, after reports ECB will consider 50bps hike this week
20th Jul 22, 8:04am
Equities rally strongly overnight - S&P500 +2.5%, Dax +2.7%. EUR continues to recover, breaking 1.02, after reports ECB will consider 50bps hike this week
US equities down, global rates and commodities higher. EUR strengthens ahead of key risk events later this week. NZ short-end rates higher yesterday post the CPI data - market pricing slightly better-than-even chance of RBNZ 75bps hike next month
19th Jul 22, 7:49am
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US equities down, global rates and commodities higher. EUR strengthens ahead of key risk events later this week. NZ short-end rates higher yesterday post the CPI data - market pricing slightly better-than-even chance of RBNZ 75bps hike next month
Market sentiment recovers on Friday, helped by lower inflation expectations data, less hawkish Fed comments. USD pulls back from 20-year high amidst improvement in risk appetite. China GDP shrinks in Q2 as economy feels the effect of lockdowns
18th Jul 22, 7:48am
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Market sentiment recovers on Friday, helped by lower inflation expectations data, less hawkish Fed comments. USD pulls back from 20-year high amidst improvement in risk appetite. China GDP shrinks in Q2 as economy feels the effect of lockdowns
Market sentiment improves - equities, commodities, global rates all higher. US 10-year rate recovers back to 3%. GBP outperforms after Johnson announces resignation. EUR under pressure with fresh 20-year lows overnight
8th Jul 22, 7:52am
Market sentiment improves - equities, commodities, global rates all higher. US 10-year rate recovers back to 3%. GBP outperforms after Johnson announces resignation. EUR under pressure with fresh 20-year lows overnight
Market sentiment stabilises on better-than-expected US Services survey. US Treasury yields rebounds. FOMC minutes raise possibility of an "even more restrictive stance" of policy if inflation remains high
7th Jul 22, 7:53am
Market sentiment stabilises on better-than-expected US Services survey. US Treasury yields rebounds. FOMC minutes raise possibility of an "even more restrictive stance" of policy if inflation remains high
US PMI surveys weaker than expected; new orders falls into contractionary territory. Industrial commodities fall on demand fears - copper now 25% off its highs. NZ rates fall further, with the market paring back its expectation for the OCR to below 4%
4th Jul 22, 7:33am
US PMI surveys weaker than expected; new orders falls into contractionary territory. Industrial commodities fall on demand fears - copper now 25% off its highs. NZ rates fall further, with the market paring back its expectation for the OCR to below 4%