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USD

A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
17th Apr 24, 8:10am
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A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
US CPI runs hot for a 3rd month; headline rises. Implied probability of a June Fed cut falls from 50/50 to below 20%. RBNZ hold decision passes with minimal reaction; balanced view maintained
11th Apr 24, 8:36am
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US CPI runs hot for a 3rd month; headline rises. Implied probability of a June Fed cut falls from 50/50 to below 20%. RBNZ hold decision passes with minimal reaction; balanced view maintained
Commodity linked currencies continue to outperform as prices surge, although dairy and iron ore prices fail to participate in the commodity rally. NZD only gets a modest boost
9th Apr 24, 8:36am
Commodity linked currencies continue to outperform as prices surge, although dairy and iron ore prices fail to participate in the commodity rally. NZD only gets a modest boost
US equity markets rally despite the hot data, leading risk assets higher. US 10-yr yield closes above 4.40%, logs second strongest week, year-to-date. US CPI this week's headliner; ECB, RBNZ, BoC all expected to remain on-hold
8th Apr 24, 7:53am
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US equity markets rally despite the hot data, leading risk assets higher. US 10-yr yield closes above 4.40%, logs second strongest week, year-to-date. US CPI this week's headliner; ECB, RBNZ, BoC all expected to remain on-hold
Kiwi downside pressure remains as recent data signals sluggish growth. US dollar downturn expected once Fed commences easing, but may not play out
26th Mar 24, 9:13am
Kiwi downside pressure remains as recent data signals sluggish growth. US dollar downturn expected once Fed commences easing, but may not play out
Rising US treasury yields last week's major story, DXY gaining momentum. Reserve Bank of Australia meeting: presents as a low volatility event
25th Mar 24, 8:08am
Rising US treasury yields last week's major story, DXY gaining momentum. Reserve Bank of Australia meeting: presents as a low volatility event
US PPI beat: producer prices rise most in 6 months; follows hot CPI. US treasury yields rip higher, 10-year back near 4.30%; US dollar stronger Odds of a June cut lower as sticky inflation may delay the easing cycle
15th Mar 24, 7:43am
US PPI beat: producer prices rise most in 6 months; follows hot CPI. US treasury yields rip higher, 10-year back near 4.30%; US dollar stronger Odds of a June cut lower as sticky inflation may delay the easing cycle
US equities down, yields down, crude down, gold flat, US dollar up. Markets slip into wat-and-see mode ahead of US CPI
12th Mar 24, 8:29am
US equities down, yields down, crude down, gold flat, US dollar up. Markets slip into wat-and-see mode ahead of US CPI
US employment report: NFP beats, but prior month revised notably lower. US treasury yields and the dollar fall, equity markets retreat, appear toppy
11th Mar 24, 9:29am
US employment report: NFP beats, but prior month revised notably lower. US treasury yields and the dollar fall, equity markets retreat, appear toppy
US ISM services PMI misses consensus forecasts, yields/dollar pushed lower. China's Premier Li Qiang delivers Chinese govt. work report, 5% growth targeted
6th Mar 24, 7:58am
US ISM services PMI misses consensus forecasts, yields/dollar pushed lower. China's Premier Li Qiang delivers Chinese govt. work report, 5% growth targeted
US GDP circa 2-3% range, unemployment sub-4%; cuts currently not required. But consensus view is that Fed cuts in 2H, and the USD weakens
5th Mar 24, 8:15am
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US GDP circa 2-3% range, unemployment sub-4%; cuts currently not required. But consensus view is that Fed cuts in 2H, and the USD weakens
USD softens, yields fall on ISM Manufacturing/Mich. consumer sentiment misses. Eurozone inflation declines less than expected, core remains above 3%. A rare bright spot: China's non-manufacturing PMI beats expectations
4th Mar 24, 7:32am
USD softens, yields fall on ISM Manufacturing/Mich. consumer sentiment misses. Eurozone inflation declines less than expected, core remains above 3%. A rare bright spot: China's non-manufacturing PMI beats expectations
US equity markets pause relentless ascent, remain close to record highs. Yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar up
27th Feb 24, 8:27am
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US equity markets pause relentless ascent, remain close to record highs. Yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar up
US equities down, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar mixed. Low volatility, subdued trading conditions prevail amidst quiet data flow. Traders watching key topside technical breaks for the Kiwi versus the dollar & yen
22nd Feb 24, 8:24am
US equities down, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar mixed. Low volatility, subdued trading conditions prevail amidst quiet data flow. Traders watching key topside technical breaks for the Kiwi versus the dollar & yen
US equities closed, US yields closed, crude up, gold up, US dollar flat. Markets await RBA minutes, PBoC rate decision, and Canadian CPI. NZD near where resistance expected to halt its rise
20th Feb 24, 7:52am
US equities closed, US yields closed, crude up, gold up, US dollar flat. Markets await RBA minutes, PBoC rate decision, and Canadian CPI. NZD near where resistance expected to halt its rise
US disinflation conundrum: PPI joins CPI as week's inflation data prints hot. Is the Fed done hiking? Rate hike chatter emerging as inflation bottoms
19th Feb 24, 7:50am
US disinflation conundrum: PPI joins CPI as week's inflation data prints hot. Is the Fed done hiking? Rate hike chatter emerging as inflation bottoms
Soft data across the globe: Aussie jobs, UK & Japan GDP & US retail sales all miss. Strong US CPI report fading from memory, US dollar gives up gains
16th Feb 24, 8:36am
Soft data across the globe: Aussie jobs, UK & Japan GDP & US retail sales all miss. Strong US CPI report fading from memory, US dollar gives up gains
US CPI runs hot, core inflation remains at 3.9%, reducing likelihood of May cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher, 10-yr yield approaches 4.30%. UK unemployment falls from 4.2% to 3.8%; BoE likely not cutting until 2H
14th Feb 24, 8:16am
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US CPI runs hot, core inflation remains at 3.9%, reducing likelihood of May cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher, 10-yr yield approaches 4.30%. UK unemployment falls from 4.2% to 3.8%; BoE likely not cutting until 2H
S&P500 closes above 5000 for the first time, climbing in 14 of past 15 weeks. ANZ bank releases OCR revision note, calls for 25bps hikes in February & April
12th Feb 24, 8:36am
S&P500 closes above 5000 for the first time, climbing in 14 of past 15 weeks. ANZ bank releases OCR revision note, calls for 25bps hikes in February & April
NZD peeks back through 61 US cents, unwilling to extend beyond 0.6120's. 4Q NZ jobs data runs hotter than RBNZ forecasts, odds of February hike rise. Markets track sideways amidst a quiet data week, USD consolidates gains
8th Feb 24, 8:00am
NZD peeks back through 61 US cents, unwilling to extend beyond 0.6120's. 4Q NZ jobs data runs hotter than RBNZ forecasts, odds of February hike rise. Markets track sideways amidst a quiet data week, USD consolidates gains
Despite Powell kiboshing March cut, yields continue to fall, dollar reverses. Eurozone core inflation falls from 3.4% to 3.3%; headline remains sub-3%. Bank of England delivers hawkish hold; odds of May cut fall below 50%
2nd Feb 24, 8:48am
Despite Powell kiboshing March cut, yields continue to fall, dollar reverses. Eurozone core inflation falls from 3.4% to 3.3%; headline remains sub-3%. Bank of England delivers hawkish hold; odds of May cut fall below 50%
Equities down, yields down, crude down, gold up, US dollar down following soft ADP and ECI data. Australian CPI falls
1st Feb 24, 7:56am
Equities down, yields down, crude down, gold up, US dollar down following soft ADP and ECI data. Australian CPI falls
Equities up, yields down, crude down, gold down, US dollar mixed. FOMC, TFA, tech earnings, US jobs data may set the tone for remainder of 1Q
30th Jan 24, 8:03am
Equities up, yields down, crude down, gold down, US dollar mixed. FOMC, TFA, tech earnings, US jobs data may set the tone for remainder of 1Q
US PCE in-line; market pricing a 50/50 split for the 20 March FOMC meeting. Rates markets currently project 5-6 cuts vs the Fed's median dot plot of 3
29th Jan 24, 8:52am
US PCE in-line; market pricing a 50/50 split for the 20 March FOMC meeting. Rates markets currently project 5-6 cuts vs the Fed's median dot plot of 3
US GDP on fire, 4Q economic growth at 3.3%, easily beating 2% consensus. US consumer continues to spend amidst; blessed with immaculate disinflation? ECB maintains 4% deposit rate, still not considering timing of rate cut
26th Jan 24, 8:28am
US GDP on fire, 4Q economic growth at 3.3%, easily beating 2% consensus. US consumer continues to spend amidst; blessed with immaculate disinflation? ECB maintains 4% deposit rate, still not considering timing of rate cut