Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news, so far the sky is not falling despite the higher benchmark interest rates
First in the US, the actual number of new initial claims for jobless benefits fell to just under 175,000 last week, emphasising the continuing strength of the American labour market. True, the seasonally-adjusted version rose marginally, but even so, this data has been falling since July and is almost back to the very low levels they had a year ago. It might not be 'news' but it is an impressive run, one that makes it much harder for the Fed to meet its inflation-fighting mandate even if it is acing its full employment one.
They also released their third and 'final' Q2-2023 GDP result today, confirming it rose at an annual rate of +2.1%, a minor slip from the Q1 rate of +2.3%. (That took their GDP on a nominal basis to US$27.1 tln, up +5.9% from a year ago or a gain of +US$1.5 tln. Inflation accounted for US$0.9 tln of that however.) It is likely that the real, inflation adjusted expansion for Q3 will be very much faster than Q2, perhaps twice as fast with a +4.9% growth.
But one American sector remains firmly in the doldrums, their residential real estate sector. Pending home sales for August fell a whopping -18.7% from a year ago with a very sharp fall in August from July. No asset class has immunity from asset price revaluation in a rising interest rate market, and certainly housing doesn't.
The Kansas City Fed's September factory survey reported slippage across the board, including for new orders. But interestingly, not for employment.
In Canada, weekly earnings are rising faster, up +4.3% from a year ago. Their CPI was +4.0% over the same period. The earnings rise was their fastest since March 2022.
EU business sentiment was stable in September, in contrast to the reversing consumer sentiment levels.
Meanwhile, Germany released is September CPI data overnight and while still high at 4.5%, this was lower than expected (4.6%) and sharply lower than in August (6.1%), and their lowest since February 2022.
Container shipping freight rates fell sharply again last week, down -5.1% from the prior week to be 65% lower than year-ago levels. Trans-Atlantic rates seem to have bottomed out, but again it is the outbound rates from China that still show the main weakness. Bulk cargo rates are still rising however, and are back near year-ago levels, and pretty much near their long term averages.
The UST 10yr yield starts today down -2 bps from yesterday at 4.62% but essentially holding its recent high. The inverted curves are flattening more. Their key 2-10 yield curve is less inverted from yesterday at -47 bps. And their 1-5 curve is now at -81 bps and also less inverted. Their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is less inverted too, also at -76 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.53% and up +7 bps from yesterday. And the China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.71%. But the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is +6 bps higher at 5.31%.
Wall Street's Thursday session is shifted higher, with the S&P500 up +0.7% today. Overnight, European markets were all up a similar amount except London which was little-changed. Yesterday, Tokyo ended down -1.5%, and Hong Kong fell -1.4% but Shanghai was up a minor +0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session down -0.1% but the NZX50 slumped to be down -1.2% with a late dive. End of quarter portfolio squaring will influence today's trade.
The price of gold will start today at just on US$1863/oz and down another -US$12 from yesterday. This is a new low since February 2023, all driven by the sharply rising yields. China's gold price has risen faster than in most other global markets, but overnight it plunged lower, wiping out most of the premium that had built up.
After getting as high as US$95/bbl overnight, oil prices are moving back down today, -US$1.50 lower than this time yesterday at just under US$91.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just under US$93.50/bbl. The surge to US$100 being talked about isn't happening today although the long-term trend is still firm.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.7 USc, up +½c from this time yesterday. But against the Aussie we are down almost -¼c to 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we little-changed at 56.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.6 and up +20 bps.
The bitcoin price has moved sharply higher today from yesterday, and it is now at US$27,191 up a strong +3.7% from then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/-2.3%.
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130 Comments
Thankfully higher local Govt rates and water bills are included in CPI so as they push that up our mighty central bank will be able to hike interest rates and increase costs for local Govt and water companies. Then rates and water bills will come down again.
Yes that will definitely work 😂😂🤣🤣
A new Government could also make things worse, the mayor said, citing National’s plans to abolish the Regional Fuel Tax and scrap Labour’s Three Waters reforms.
Jfoe....How would u manage inflation ??.. (it's a serious question.)
Interest rates ? Taxation ? Credit creation constraints ? .... other ?
Inflation is a difficult beast, once it gets into costs/wages....etc
I wrote a long response and then had a power cut! Gist of it was:
- Identify systemically important import prices that are prone to spiking and having a contagion effect through the rest of the economy. Then put in place mitigation strategies in advance (as recommended by no other than Bill Phillips). In NZ, oil is hands down the biggest driver of rapid price contagion - so flex the rate of excise and tax levied at the ports on fuel to smooth price rises (and falls). European countries that did this with energy price shocks have suppressed inflation successfully by slowing / preventing price contagion.
- Stick a premium on interest rates for credit speculation, and fix interest rates for 25 years for home owner mortgages with state backing (as per the socialist republic of America). Oh, and tax land.
- Aggressive market regulation - we are too small to have real competition in many of our sectors so we need to regulate monoplistic behaviour hard and use price control / suppression to prevent critical householfd cost items spiking when we do get bursts of excess demand - see Auckland rents right now as inward migration goes nuts. Switzerland makes extensive use of controls and market regulation (including rents) because it is a wealthy, small country (8 million) with low levels of competition. Denmark do the same. Both these countries (unsurprisingly) have relatively low inflation.
- Stagger company tax rates - higher % for higher % profits and use the tax system to incentivise domestic investment in R&D, productivity etc
- Be prepared if absolutely necessary to slow consumer spending through a flexible higher tax rate and / or higher kiwisaver contributions. I think that examples of excess demand causing inflation are almost always over-stated, but if we want to create the space in the economy for massive investment in climate resilience / adaptation / mitigation then we may need to use second world war era tools like forced saving.
- Lastly, and I would recommend people really think / read about this before kicking off, I would introduce a Jobs Guarantee so that we use a bufferstock of people employed doing useful things in their communities to manage and smooth out ups and downs in the economic cycle (rather than a bufferstock of unemployed people being kept out of work to 'lower the risk of inflation'!)
Are you talking price increases or inflation?
These two get confused.
When you play the game monopoly there is no inflation, just variation in price based on who will pay what and when.
If the banker grabs cash from the second game and introduces this, we get inflation.
So in my simplified world, banks cause inflation, the markets cause price swings.
They do get confused, I'm talking about a sustained and broad increase in the overall price level (inflation), noting that this can eventuate because of increases in systemically important prices. If the price of human labour went up 50% tomorrow, prices would soon follow. I don't think a bout of inflation (as per last couple of years) is that big a deal during global adjustments though.
I also don't buy the 'banks watering down money' story. Total bank account balances in NZ increased by around 6% per year on average between 2016 and 2020 - and about 4.5% from January 2021 to now. We had basically no inflation in the first period, and plenty in the second.
If labour went up 50% and prices followed, then sales would reduce for this product or other products (as the cash was diverted) - unless the supply of cash was increased. Thus no inflation as product X sales fell in favour of Y.
My monopoly game analogy - fixed money supply and you cannot have inflation, just changes in buying behavior.
If you were crazy enough to fix money supply, yes, that's true. But in the real world, money is added into the economy by govt spending and bank lending. Would you suggest absolute credit control and govt spending being capped whatever happens?
Jfoe for finance minister. Not the first time I have suggested it. Instead we will get... an English Lit major and former journalist. Wasn't even a financial journalist.
I think its way past time that we started putting people in power based on merit, not on populism.
Much appreciated jfoe... I shall ponder...
Here is a last big question... Would u reform our Monetary system.... if so..... how ?
Jfoe...is that Bill Phillips of ... the phillips curve fame.?
Yes, his paper is here...https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1468-0335.1958.tb000…
You should talk about these ideas more, you whine about the OCR all the time but almost never offer alternative solutions - I assumed you didn't have any but that's clearly not the case!
(I actually like a high OCR for reasons that are nothing to do with inflation - I think low interest rates are very regressive in that they basically enable people with existing equity to grow that faster, and also encourage dangerous credit bubbles that - but perhaps you have better suggestions for fixing those problems too!)
Is that not the role of Economic Theory and economists to solve?
Or does it further highlight that economics is a prescribed set of beliefs handed down generation after generation, and it's those beliefs that actually need to be questioned? Does using the same methods solve the problems they caused or does it make the problem bigger?
I get it though. As a former Chartered Accountant it's understandable that we can be blinded by our training and not see a bigger picture. If we've vested our energy, our livelihood and quite possibly our identity into our profession, it's difficult to question what we've been taught.
The Upton Sinclair quote comes to mind - "it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it."
Brown-town isn't happy about the regional fuel tax removal and 3 waters being repealed. He wants Waterware debt off the council books and 3 waters will achieve that. Perhaps another Luxon u-turn incoming...
But, but, but, 3 waters is bad because (checks notes) ... Labour proposed it and everything Labour proposed was undemocratic and wrong ...
Regardless of the merit, the method(s) stunk culminating in the deceitful attempt to enshrine three waters which was contemptuous of long accepted parliamentary protocol, made in defiance of the PM and cabinet, and a middle finger to democracy itself.
I never see people focus on the fact that 3 waters is/was essentially proposing to shift even more of our infrastructure burden from asset owners to PAYE taxpayers. Kinda funny that the virtue signalling from both sides meant that 3 waters was supported by many of the younger generation who would have paid for it, and fiercely opposed by many of the wealthy 50-somethings it would have most benefitted.
Thats a big U-Turn from Brown. When he got in he demanded watercare immediately stop work on 3 waters.
The US miracle - involving high interest rates that only really punish real estate, households that are getting a decent return on their savings while facing no pain on mortgages (all fixed at 3% on avg), billions of dollars of Govt stimulus thanks to interest paid on trillions of bank reserves (floating rate debt), and Inflation Reduction Act investment in businesses etc. Inflation running at 3.7% as the USD stays strong and supply chains adjust to higher levels of demand (because when business is good you expand production!)
Now, back to NZ, what the bloody hell are we doing?
By Federal departments own projections they will need to borrow 2 Trillion every year. US can apparently get away with something no other nation can, but is that true?
For NZ, 6% term deposits for one year are now inflation beating. Anyone who can will be saving in them, but who is borrowing?
There is an unlimited appetite for US Fed bonds and US dollars across the world. The US Govt has to run a huge deficit to keep that many dollars and US bonds circulating under non-resident ownership. The US don't have to care about the deficit at all - Biden knows this (as did Trump).
Those high term deposit returns are possible in NZ because of the huge leap in interest being paid on NZ business debt, which increased from $7 billion per year in mid-2022 to $15 billion now. Apparently if you add $8 billion of cost onto businesses, you get lower prices.
Oh, and nobody is borrowing - net credit creation stalled months ago and is only being kept up by businesses increasing their overdrafts (revolving credit).
For NZ, 6% term deposits for one year are now inflation beating. Anyone who can will be saving in them
You're taxed on that 6% return though so the net return is lower than inflation.
It's delusion to thing they can endlessly borrow. And 'modern monetary theory' is whistling in the dark so the bogey man won't get you.
But he will.
I don't agree that MMT is "whistling in the dark so the bogey man won't get you" as any trading medium, in this case money, has to be under pinned by resources. The US$ case is intriguing though. While the US has a huge amount of resources the demand for the US$ seems to mean it is to a limited extent underwritten by global resources. It is equally clear that quality of Government is a factor too, but in the US this would be more in faith than fact.
Yes Murray, it works for now. But I can't see it will work forever.
Paying the minimum off your big credit card bill each month means life can be sweet. But there comes a time.
True but that i suggest is a different issue. Without trying to sound like a conspiracy theorist, I feel that the banks have a bigger design over control of societies. I'm mindful that Dwight Eisenhower tried to rein them in in the 50s without any success. So the banks effectively peddle debt to anyone who wants it, and with that they gain control over an individual's resources, which for most is mainly time. limit the banks in doing this and I suggest thee might be better outcomes.
For the ultimate in dystopian thought, read the Murderbot Diaries, where most space colonies are effectively run by corporations and commercial law. The depressing thing is it's not inconcievable.
Lol the future is already here. Are our earth colonies not already run this way?
Maybe one day there will be another country that the rest of the world trusts with their savings. Until then, the US can run a deficit.
Or how about we remove the need to trust a central entity entirely?
Bitcoin Fixes this.
The currency for everyone where no one can change it. Rules with no rulers.
The fed will be very sheepish about reducing interest rates, because in the 70s/80s when they did this they underbaked the pain. And their inflation has been partly tempered by the higher USD which relates to their interest rate.
While current mortgage holders aren't under much stress there, anyone involved in the industry of moving from one house to another, any capital improvements etc will be feeling it.
Yep.
But ‘luckily’ for them their economy is nowhere near as reliant as ours on real estate and construction.
Yes, and Biden's economic team are very clear that they want to rebalance the economy away from speculative finance / real estate to making stuff. Meanwhile in NZ, well over 90% of all borrowing is for property development! So, why would they reduce rates for the next year or so? In my view, this is why RBNZ have built up FX reserves - they are planning for a scenario where they drop rates before the Fed and need to be able to defend the NZD.
This is my theory too. As soon as we move out of lock-step with the fed rate cycle, the currency will swing wildly.
Surely we can’t afford that. I doubt any intervention by the reserve bank will make the slightest impact on propping the NZD up.
You may be right ... But when the RBNZ went into the market and built up FX reserves most say their actions definitely had more than a slight impact. They've had impact before too. But usually just for short periods and usually just to send a 'message'.
But ‘luckily’ for them their economy is nowhere near as reliant as ours on real estate and construction
It's 70% consumption based. Is that worse?
Environmentally, yes. But far les susceptible to interest rate hikes than our speculative and volatile real estate and property economy.
It's their 30 year interest rates making the difference there.
They also have a property tax system designed to encourage churning over property, so I don't think they're much less property focused than here.
We could have fixed for 5 years. In fact BNZ offered 7 years for a while but I think they canned it due to lack of demand.
After having watched a fascinating economic debate on Swiss TV last night, I just saw an equally interesting programme on German TV about inflation. Sadly, I don't think there would be enough public interest in NZ to make these kind of TV programs about the economy, worthwhile.
It’s one of the real downsides of NZ. Not only are we small and pretty insular, there’s also a strong ‘anti-intellectualism’ streak in our culture. Add to that the fact that our media is incentivised to present populist dross that ‘sells’.
Aye it’s neither helpful nor productive that popularity ranks so high in our election choices.
No different to Australia, we are pretty basic nations. There is no demand for anything intellectual, it's all reality TV garbage.
In the past 20 years we have had incredible advancement in technology yet an inverse relationship with the quality of music and drama. Millenials and Gen Z may rail against Boomers and Gen X, but at least they left a legacy in the Arts. The current generation is leaving zero, nothing but toxicity.
Pretty much agree, but I think their extra size provides them with a ‘little’ bit more of an intellectual sustenance. But yeah not much better. Plenty of ‘yobbo culcha’
But at least they have one or two newspapers hitting a much higher level than ours
If raising kids and education are important determining factors for shaping how children will grow into adolescents and adults, then I defer to Boomers and Gen X's legacy in parenting.
I tend to agree that parents are somewhat culpable, but that doesn't really explain all of the collapse in quality of Arts and Drama. I mean what are we up to now, Fast and Furious 10? How many Marvel movies and we don't even bother with a top 20 songs because there aren't any.
Populist "art" sells better in a capitalist environment (think spin offs, merchandise, etc). They profit more off of superhero movies. Why make an artsy film when you can churn out another marvel film and make 10x money.
CEO of Universal Music is 63 years old. Warner Music is 53. Sony Music 61.
The directors of Fast and Furious are in their 50's. The latest Marvel Movie was directed by James Gunn, he's 57. Most of other directors were in 50's and 60's (at a quick glance).
While the music industry CEO's aren't the content creators, they're enabling the "mainstreaming" of your collapse in arts quality.
How much of this is a cultural change, and how much is your own drifting away from modern culture as you age? I think it's pretty standard for older generations to look down on the cultural achievements of the young - I bet your parents did the same for the music you listened to as a teenager.
I disagree. My daughter and her friends all listen to 80s and 90s music, it’s clear there has been a collapse in originality. If she goes to an event it’s usually a dj, they are the new “rock stars”.
where are the counter culture music movements like the 70s and 80s? It’s almost like our kids have everything they ever need so there is no anger, no angst.
I'm well into my 30s so not really in a position to tell you what the kids are listening to. When I was in the UK, the counter culture was genres like Grime but not really my cup of tea.
I do still go to quite a few metal gigs, and I can tell you in that world the kids are certainly innovating and developing new styles. Generally much better technical skills than bands from previous generations, too. As in most of the creative arts I follow, the competitive pressure is much stronger than it used to be and you need real talent to get picked up.
Isn't a collapse in originality a natural thing? While there are probably limitless combinations of lyrical and musical instrumentation, only so much of it is palatable. But when artists do come up with something original, people complain about a "collapse in the quality of arts and music".
It's more that the market for accessible pop and rock music has been saturated since the 70s (with the exception of rap, which has been saturated since the 00s), and new entrants can't compete with the name recognition and established fanbases of older acts. Same reason that almost zero celebrate classical music has been made in living memory - it's not that the ability to make it has gone, there's just no empty niches left to fill and it's hard to compete with the name recognition of mozart, beethoven etc.
There is some incredible music being made today in the "less accessible" genres, kids with huge creativity and technical skills. I prefer the music of the last ten years to any other decade, personally.
All that advancement in technology and we're not intelligent enough to use it wisely. Or are we not wise enough to use it intelligently? Instead we have social media, whilst it enables "creativity", in many ways it's dumbing us down.
"The greatest achievement of humanity is not its works of art, science or technology, but the recognition of its own dysfunction" - Eckhart Tolle
"Humanity is acquiring all the right technology for all the wrong reasons" - Buckminster Fuller.
"It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity" - Einstein
"I fear the day that technology will surpass our human interaction, we will have a generation of idiots" - Einstein
Could be worth a read - Technology vs Humanity: the coming clash between man and machine - Gerd Leonhard.
The coming wave of automation will move way beyond the factory or public infrastructure and into our very biological processes such as aging and even giving birth. Used as we are to the gradual societal shifts brought about by previous change waves, often allowing decades to adjust and respond, I ask if we as a tribe are ready to abdicate our human sovereignty to the faceless forces of technology? Are you ready for the biggest loss of free will and individual human control in history?
we can find a balanced way forward that will allow us to embrace technology but not become technology, to use it as a tool and not as a purpose
Well said HM, I didn't dare to put it that bluntly!
I agree. It is one of the reasons Winston keeps on coming back: Small town mentality!
Maybe it's also time to drop the "NZ European" label.
Most people here are nowhere near having similar attitudes and culture to Europeans, even most "Pakeha". Even Poms (who have a love/hate relationship with mainland europe) manage to absorb and appreciate some of the languages and culture. For example... how do you pronounce Beauchamp? Many Kiwis will say "Beecham"... 🙄
In some european countries teenagers go out for coffee in the evenings instead of getting wasted and the family units there are much stronger (granny and grandad look after the kids etc and then get looked after themselves).
And you're so right about the anti-intellectualism here. It's pretty evident in the comment section!
We had a lot of robust, enlightened & eloquent media inquiry throughout most of the 1970's & 80s, with only 1 or 2 TV channels to choose from. Definitely gone to pack since the noughties.
Academics have likewise authored their own contemporary disrespect compared with 30+ years ago (about when I was last at Uni).
George Orwell: “Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them.”
The general public doesn't care about inflationary factors are outside the control of some cork bobbing in the middle of the pacific ocean. Despite having very favorable numbers (2022 CPI: NZ 7.2%, OECD Average 9.6%, Canada/Germany 6.8%, US/UK 8%) people would rather switch into Negative Nancy mode and rattle on that it's still not good enough while making it political.
Unfortunately Yvil, that is so, so true. In the recent Channel 3 leader's debate Paddy Gower said a recent nationwide survey showed that 50% of 15 year old children could not add one half to one quarter correctly. In my school in Japan I had 6 year old's counting up to a thousand and solving simple arithmetic questions. But then, like most Asians they have a stong desire for learing and education and those who impart it; here we spend our money on hakas. We deserve everything we get.
Everything you said was on point up until the last
A bit of casual racism, seems that our political class has made this OK.
It hurts when it truth.
It hurts when it’s truth.
Thank you for all the replies/comments. I'm very happy that this struck a chord with many. Honestly, I was concerned I would upset some readers with my original comment.
Good to end the week with such positive news everywhere.
It’s hard not to be gloomy when you sit and consider that in just over two weeks NZ will be observing the prospect of a government, of whatever hue, consisting of a three way coalition that hardly will inspire confidence or stability, just when exactly the opposite is needed.
I'm feeling quite optimistic. It will be good to put those enemies of freedom in the dustbin of history.
Yeah nah.
sure, good riddance but gee awful alternative prospect.
Wow, you're narrow minded.. having those 3 clowns at the dinner table will be as bad or worse than the current lot
Funny how they call the left wing coalition "The coalition of Chaos", but at least the left wing parties get along and are reasonably aligned! The real chaos occurs with NZF.
If National needs a 3 way coalition with NZF does that mean they lost the election, like when Labour needed a 3 way coalition with NZF?
Long bow bro.
To Nationals credit they will comprehensively have the largest share of the vote. Unlike Labour who found the golden ticket and snuck in the back door after Ardern conceded defeat.
It ain't FPP any more you know. A party having the largest share of votes means nothing these days.
Ardern did concede, she was the one who decided her party had lost.
Personally I could see they had a way to form a coalition at the time.
It is after all the 30th anniversary of WP resignation from the National Party & formation of NZF. Ever since then, he has scarcely bothered to conceal that he has on hand, a very large axe to grind as far as the National Party. Listen hard & you can hear the whetstone wheel already starting to turn.
Ah, if NZF gets in, the left wing parties would also need them in coalition to get into power. As either regime will need his support that make it moot who will be more chaotic, left or right.
Exactly. And to give WP credit he claims with good reason to be the catalyst that introduced MMP and subsequently, he has evidenced that he is streets ahead as to both harnessing and exploiting it.
And I suggest that if you listened to what he (WP) has said this time around, Labour has to go! And that I believe is what drove him the last time, irrespective of what was on offer he knew National had to go then, and he made that call. What we have seen is that when neither have much to offer, the person who makes those calls gets damned no matter which way they call it.
Don’t know that the Bolger led government deserves that view but once Shipley took over, probably. Don’t overlook that 1996 election was the first under MMP. NZF introduced 15 or so MPs and scandal and ructions soon flared up. The underpants saga, fiddling in immigration and on and the media jumped down the throat of it all. Bolger & Birch were pretty conservative and reasonably palatable to WP especially after Richardson quit. But Shipley was bull headed, clashed immediately and ultimately sacked WP causing the split off in NZF’s ranks and the emergence of a ramshackle government and yes WP is quite right, at that point it had to go. However NZF itself were hardly absent from the process that brought it all to that point. Personally I am dubious that WP has buried the hatchet, the tumultuous resignation in 1993 following his earlier sacking and then sacked again, deeply enough to ever dispassionately support a National led government.
Sacked and sacked again because he wouldn't do what he felt or knew to be wrong for the country? It is Government politics through and through, even in Government Departments. Kate said it in a comment stream a few days ago and i agreed then, that if you aren't singing from the company (party) songbook then you don't belong and they will get rid of you. WP simply has a history of calling BS when he smells it, whether you agree with him or not. Those in power feel very threatened by that.
That might well be so, and even if WP was 100% justified and correct, that doesn’t mean it still doesn’t rankle. That history in itself, immediately raises the important question as to the stability future relationship with a National led government. Being right doesn’t ensure you are always going to win any argument and certainly not in politics.
True, in politics being proven right when you're swimming against the tide can be the worst thing to happen.
I think that Luxon is underrated. From what I've been told, he had a good managerial record at Air NZ and it may be that he will be able to bring those skills to bear to forge a policy consensus between the three parties.
Winston may be many things but he is a patriot and a realist. Everyone except Labour knows that they (Labour) are a pretty useless govt and that we desperately need a moderate govt of competence. Things don't work very well in our nation right now and there needs to be better, less ideological leadership put in place fast. Winston at least talks about these things although if he gets there he may not do much about them.
We need to do something about our lack of energy independence and Labour mothballing the refinery was a sign that they just don't understand a basic underpinning of our economy.
We haven't solved the problem of our privatised banks being sold to overseas buyers or our electricity companies not working for the national interest. We can't do much with the energy changeover if the right structures to enable the change are not in place. Which makes me somewhat hopeful that National have committed to a charging network. That shows that they are somewhat aware of the practical steps needed to begin the changeover.
It is ironic that I will be voting for NZ First & National (National being the ones that sold the electricity SOE's) because the 'left' wing parties that should be about national energy and finance policies are all about co-governance and the bureaucratic class.
"Labour mothballing the refinery"
If you are going to make up nonsense like this, why would anyone put any trust the rest of your comment?
Imagine if Labour had met whatever costs a group of private companies demanded in order to keep the refinery open?
Northern Lights would be on here moaning about how many millions they've blown on corporate welfare.
True enough but it was worth some consideration. Helen Clark saw it in the national interest strategically to keep a national railway and airline up and running and hardly without reason. The oil refinery in terms of independence and security was not far off that mark at all. More than justifiable in my book.
Since the refinery couldn't use local feedstock, what difference does closing it really make? I mean 240 jobs were lost, that's 240 families upturned but that's a side point.
So instead of importing crude, we import finished product. Different steps in the same supply chain model, except we should (in theory) see lower costs as larger refineries have the benefit of scale of economies. If there's a shortage of refined product, then there'll likely be a corresponding shortage of crude. There are 825 refineries worldwide, so unlikely to be a refining capacity issue.
Fairly easy to imagine they would be pilloried by the media and Opposition screaming about Communism & Executive over-reach.
To be fair, while it was NZ Refining who mothballed it, this Labour Government sat around with their fingers up their dates while it happened with no understanding of what it meant. Incompetent at best. So he is not wrong.
Which enemies of freedom? I assume you don't mean the ones that want to squeeze 10s of millions of humans into NZs small resource constrained land area, with declining GDP per capita? Personally, those squealing about "freedom" don't realise it's being stolen from them with every plane load of residence visas. Talk about clueless! There's no freedom in the NACT sardine can.
The most racist Govt in 50 years says they'll call it out when they see it:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/election-2023/498982/hipkins-commits-to-call…
Could start by looking in the mirror
How's your privilege going this morning?
It's everything I worked for...
Are there racists in a sardine can.? When there's no room to move, no one is your friend.
I am dying of prostate cancer which has caused a lot of pain and incontinence problems. After a disastrous procedure on Decemberlast and six subsequent visits to Auckland Hospital's A&E to deal with the pian, amongst other things, I was scheduled for surgery last month, but got cancelled in favour of more brown skinned people - I am what Jacinder Adern and her supporting public service unions called, on TV, the "male, pale and stale." I have been recently advised that I am in line for another procedure next Monday, but as yet no firm time. Ah, what the fuck.
However, I must add that the staff who have attended me have overwhelmingly been wonderful, even though they are run off their feet and exhausted. My wife is en ex nurse who ended her career in Auckand Hospital, unwillingly because, like so many nurses, they really love their jobs. However, she frequently, has lunch and gossip sessions with her old friends most of whom are senior nurses and the inside dope is shocking. Similarly, when my health was better I used to drive for Ola and twice last year I picked up doctors and took them to the airport, about a week apart. Inevitably we sgaredtlo chat and I asked both of them, "What do you think is the biggest problem with the health system ? And both, without skipping a beat replied, "The government.'
I served this country as intelligence and staff officer and swore allegiance to The Crown representing the people of New Zealand, so it breaks my hart and makes me so angry t see what has happened. A good time to die.
Mr Mannering I feel that I can say from all of us that we sympathise with you and you have our best wishes and prayers.
You havent noticed the KO future slums built in the last 6 years?
Get out more.
KO slums? Well no actually. My visits to the big smoke are rare and brief thank goodness and never by choice. I love the freedom of wide open spaces, although sprawl is calling, with lifestyle blocks popping up like mushrooms. I'll be dead before suburbia reaches me, which is good, because it would break me to see the property I've loved, the reveg I've nurtured, covered in tarseal and plastic houses, with the prisoners inside on their playstations.
Well that is the reality here.
Sardine cans are everywhere in massive numbers. There is so much of the same housing product everywhere that it will trend towards worthless - as soon as some tremor forces up the number of listings from the current low levels.
Net migration has exploded and has been proven to be of very low quality.
This is the current state, so I do not understand how a change of government can cause this. It has already happened my friend.
"I do not understand how a change of government can cause this"
This is very true. Labour and NZ first were promising to do something about mass immigration in 2017. A sizable chunk of NZ were sick of it. They proceeded to do little, to nothing about it. The momentum was already baked in. Labour are tied to doing nothing because they are sensitive souls and can't be seen as unfair to anyone. Then COVID and panic. Labour have been hostage to the business lobby and the right wing media on immigration. They should have told them to p!ss off, instead they tried to gain brownie points by bending over.
Nats on the other hand make no secret their desired outcome is a massive increase in NZ population for their mates in banking, developers, etc. "Lets get back on track."
“I say throw all those hooligans out”
Steppenwolf: Justice don’t be slow (1974 – still got the vinyl)
https://youtu.be/hhxMwUfkX0Q?si=ukO4547lXMvqWaLN
"No man is good enough to govern another man without that other man's consent" - Abraham Lincoln
"I know now why confusion in government is not only tolerated but encouraged. I have learned. A confused people can make no clear demands" - John Steinbeck
"The only choice which Providence has graciously left to a vicious government is either to fall by the people if they become enlightened, or with them, if they are kept enslaved and ignorant" - Samuel Taylor Coleridge
In other news, this morning most of us woke up and were above ground. Here the sun is shining after a week of wind and rain, the coffee is hot and fresh.
...even in Wellington ! ;)
Nice, you reminded me life is good. Nearly struck by lightning yesterday. Hit the ground ten metres from me. My ears are still ringing. But the coffee is goooood!
Bonds Out, Bitcoin In? Bloomberg Analyst Predicts Major Portfolio Shifts
In a comprehensive evaluation of global market dynamics, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Jamie Coutts has opined on the shifting sands of financial asset volatility. With bonds potentially falling out of favor and Bitcoin cementing its place as a debasement hedge, traditional portfolio models may be on the verge of a renaissance.
More whistling in the dark Baywatch.
Do you have a match?
Brave does not save them from stupid Baywatch.
Stupid is as stupid does...have a good day but be carefool out there KH.
KH, what is your level of knowledge on Bitcoin?
Just wondering because from your other comments I can say that Bitcoin Fixes several of the issues you talk about, and yet you don't seem to like it?
lol
I like this idea "....Biden's economic team are very clear that they want to rebalance the economy away from speculative finance / real estate to making stuff...."
Huge benefits in that. We could even end up with folk who have real specific skills. Instead of our current fixation on generic law/finance/HR/communications.
Could it be that there is no longer anything we need to make, hence the increased shift to financial/asset speculation over the last 40 years?
Or could it be that monetary wealth, "making money", getting rich, are false narratives that have driven us to where we are now?
Could it be that we're at the peak of materialism and financial serfdom/servitude, and we now need to learn better ways of using these "tools" to benefit all life rather than just a few?
Law/finance is just our modern day bible telling us how to live, telling us how the world works. In many ways it's still fear authority or be punished. The advisors/experts are simply the modern day priests trained to interpret it in the guise of "leading" the people to the promised kingdom, all the while it's for their own power and "prestige". You can include economics and economists. Write the "rules" so complicated that the layperson needs someone else's "authority". HR and communications are merely the support services that enable this.
Collateral: The Crux of FX Swaps
Too often we are taught to focus on money supply, the real issue is most often circulation and redistribution – and that means dealer banks. FX swaps, which should be thought of as a collateralized loan, facilitate this circulation. Think of them as synthetic repos. These swaps are more than just currency exchange; they're the engine driving the necessary circulation of dollars across the globe.
Property e-mail from Trade-Me today, prices are up for the first time in 10 months. Looks like I could be right with that August to October window. Looks to me like people can see the National/ACT win already and do not even need to wait until after the election.
Yet our media isn't pointing out that everyone expects house prices to go up under NACT and that is a bad thing.
If house prices do go up, how can rents possibly go down (as CL says they will), unless property investors are willing to accept an even lower yield?
Luxon is flat out lying there.
Immigration+less consents=rental crisis=double digit rent rises.
Rents are set by peoples ability to pay, not the landlord's capital value.
National/Green..now that we make a good paring Zwift?
Unfortunately what is going to happen is that Labour supporters KNOW they are going to lose and will vindictively vote for NZF instead to try and throw a spanner in the works for National/ACT. Its time to finally throw NZF under the bus or else the next 3 years will result in nothing getting done.
A bit like National voters supposedly voting for Labour to keep the Greens out? It would likely only require 1-2% of Labour voters to switch to make an impact.
I heard on the radio today that the grocery commissioner worked for Sanitarium for 10 years. A great first case for him? *confused emoji*
The South African-born 52-year-old has been an Adventist all his life.
I hope whatever decision he makes is impartial.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/practising-what-the-company-preache…
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