A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, more private dwellings, less new policy, SBS 'wins', swaps on hold, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.

TWO OWNERS FOR EVERY RENTER
Stats NZ said as at 30 September 2023 there were estimated to be 2,063,200 private dwellings, and 1,986,900 households. Of those dwellings, 1,331,700 were owner-occupied, and 731,600 were either rented, or supplied free (as part of employment arrangements, mostly). While that is a lot of renters, it is clear from this data that owner-occupiers outrank renters 2:1 - which perhaps is why renter voices get little traction. Often a lot of noise, yes. But little policy action. While the numbers are rising, the proportions are little-changed in decades.

DO YOUR BIT. DO IT PROPERLY
The last of the political party policies are being released now. With a week to go until Election Day (October 14), minds are getting made up on how to vote. This may have been an uninspiring election campaign, but there may be some pockets of voters for whom specialist policies can attract support. So today we got releases from the Labour Party and the National Party. Labour promised a new Anti-Scamming Unit to protect us from the internet underworld. The National Party said it would establish a Minister for Space to promote the local aerospace industry. Going before them have been a wide range of policy from all parties. You can compare what interest you, here. But if polls are any indication, principled voting may not carry the day; it looks like we are going to have to live with throw-back political influencers. His rise in the polls is dispiriting for any real change. It is likely to induce widespread apathy especially among young voters and reinforce the dominance of boomer votes in this election. But that can be avoided if everyone votes, and knows what they are voting for, and why.

WINNING YEAR
SBS Bank said it has been named ‘Mutual of the Year’ at the Cooperative Business New Zealand Annual Awards. They beat FMG. The same press release revealed that SBS Bank won "8,531 new members last year, including a record number of first home buyers". 

FEELING FLUSH & SPENDING AGAIN
Japanese household spending unexpected rose more than expected in August from July (+3.9%). It might still be lower than a year ago, but the month-on-month rise impressed financial markets.

NO REASON TO WORRY ABOUT HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL STRESS
In Australia, the RBA has been looking at household financial stress in their latest Financial Stability Review. They say early indicators show that financial pressures have increased and the incidence of severe financial stress has increased but remains low. The group of borrowers at higher risk of falling into arrears on their mortgage remains small. You can find this review on page 53. Household financial stress, where it occurs, does not vary much across the country.

SWAPS ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.69% and now +19 bps above the OCR but this rate was set before the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps from this time yesterday to 4.56%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.71% although there is no local market while they remain in holiday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps to 5.58%, and still above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.50% which was up +3 bps today. The UST 10 year yield has settled in at 4.72% and unchanged. The UST 2yr has also changed little at 5.03%. So the curve inversion unwinding is holding.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.5% near the end of trade today and heading for a weekly loss of -0.4%. The ASX200 is also up +0.4% in early afternoon trade, and if they hold that, they will have fallen -1.3% for the week. Tokyo is unchanged in early Friday trade, but heading for a weekly loss of -3.2%. Hong Kong is up +1.5% in early trade and those gains may have eliminated all the losses in the prior week. Shanghai is closed this week, probably thankful they missed the volatility. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down an insignificant -0.1% which is a 'good' result considering how much it was down in intra-day trade. For the four days so far this week they have recorded a -0.4% loss.

GOLD'S STAYS DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1824/oz and down -US$4 from this time yesterday. Earlier it closed in New York at US$1820/oz, and earlier still it closed unchanged in London at US$1819/oz.

NZD GAINS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar rose +¼c today to be now at 59.6 USc and making back more of the earlier dip. Against the Aussie we are firm too, now up at 93.7 AUc and against the euro we are firmish at 56.6 euro cents, both also a +¼c gain. That means the TWI-5 is now up +30 bps at 69.9.

BITCOIN SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is a bit firmer today, now at US$27,539 and down -0.8% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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