A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; QV sees flat market, Kiwibank sees lower card spend, RBNZ sees lower house values, swaps lower, NZD higher, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ICBC have raised fixed rate for some terms today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here.

A FLAT TO 'GENTLY RISING' MARKET
QV says the national housing market likely to stay flat or 'gently rising' 'for the foreseeable future'. RINZ said they will be releasing their September results on Thursday.

A FLAT TO 'GENTLY FALLING' MARKET
New Kiwibank spending data shows the volume of card spend declined -0.7% over the September quarter, while compared with a year earlier, the number of transactions grew by just +0.5%.

BETTER THAN A BANK TD
Kiwibank has launched a new unsecured 5 year bond offer for $100 mln "plus unlimited over-subscriptions". They are expected to be rated A1 (stable) by Moody’s, and AA (stable) by Fitch. The Indicative Margin is 1.10 - 1.15% per annum over the wholesale bank bill rate. The 5 year swap rate was 5.34% the last time we looked, suggesting a rate of about 6.45% pa or so is what these will pay. Much better than bank TDs. Update: these bonds will not be listed. and with full liquidity because they will be listed/traded. (H/T: TJ)

TAKE 2
The Port Waikato by-election will be held on Saturday 25 November. The by-election follows the death of ACT candidate Neil Christensen before the general election. Under the Electoral Act, a by-election is required to be held in these circumstances. This unfortunate event will mean that the new Parliament will have 121 members, according to the same election law.

OUR HOUSES ARE WORTH LESS
The RBNZ updated its value of all dwellings, saying they are now worth $1.56 tln in aggregate (M10) as at June 2023. That is -$10 bln less than in March and -$117.6 bln less than a year ago, and a massive -$200 bln less than the peak in December 2021 (-11.3%). From December 2021, Stats NZ says we have added +69,600 more dwellings, so after adjusting for that, our housing stock is -15% lower in value over that time.

STEADY STATE
In Australia, the NAB business confidence index was marginally positive in September, the same steady level for a third straight month. Meanwhile, business conditions remained resilient (although dipping slightly from August), suggesting their economy remained in reasonable shape through the middle of the year. Forward orders rose after contracting in August. The signs for inflation were positive.

STEADY GLOOMY STATE
Staying in Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index rose in October from September, hitting the highest level in six months, but it is still in deeply pessimistic territory. And that is consistent with the contraction in per capita spending seen since late 2022 and a worry heading into the pre-Christmas sales season. Rate rise fears have also resurfaced.

SWAPS FALL
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed fell today. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 5.68% and now +19 bps above the OCR but this rate was set before the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -12 bps from this time yesterday to 4.44%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 2.72%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps to 5.51%, and still above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.44% which was down -5 bps today. After starting the day at 4.80%, the UST 10 year yield is down -10 bps at 4.64% in a risk-aversion move. The UST 2yr is down -13 bps to 4.95%.

WHAT? US WORRY?
The NZX50 is up +0.3% near the end of Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is a stronger +1.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +2.2%. Hong Kong has opened up +2.0% Shanghai is up +0.2% at its open. Earlier on Wall Street, the S&P500 closed up +0.6% in its Monday trade.

OIL UP AGAIN, BUT AGAIN NOT BY MUCH
The crude oil price has risen a further +US$2/bbl today on those Middle-East conflict risks. The US price is now US$85/bbl and the international Brent price US$87.50/bbl. But you might have thought the reaction would have been more severe - these new levels are actually still less than the peaks in the past ten days.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1864/oz and up +US$14 on the global uncertainties. It closed earlier in New York at US$1861/oz and earlier still in London at US$1846/oz.

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar has risen +½c today to be now at 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding high at 93.9 AUc and against the euro we are up almost +½c at just over 57 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up to 70.4.

BITCOIN SOFTISH
The bitcoin price is softer today, now at US$27,583 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at also just under +/- 1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».