US sentiment sags; US earnings rise but fragile; Indian exports tame; China exports weak; IMF warns on China; Aussies voting too; UST 10yr 4.63%; gold and oil jump; NZ$1 = 58.9 USc; TWI-5 = 60.3

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the impact wars and geopolitical tensions are cascading over financial markets, setting in play tectonic shifts in trade and influence. The NZD is taking a hit from all this risk aversion today.

But first a reminder: if you haven't already done so, please vote. Polls close at 7pm today, nationwide.

In the US, consumer sentiment as monitored by the widely-watched University of Michigan survey fell rather sharply in October. It fell to an index level of 63 this month from 68.1 in September, the lowest in five months, and missing market estimates of 67.2. But to be fair it is still well ahead of year-ago levels and it has been in this general range since late 2021. However, it's lower-than-expected reading has moved financial markets in the US.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street earnings results are coming in pretty much as expected, maybe a general uplift. Big banks are reporting stronger earnings.

Indian exports were marginally lower in September and slipped -2.5% from a year ago. India however is not a powerhouse exporting force yet, exporting only an eighth of the goods that China does. And there is little indication Indian exports are firing up.

In China, consumer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in September from a year ago, missing market forecasts of a +0.2% gain. Meanwhile their PPI fell -2.5% in September from a year ago.

Exports from China declined by -6.2% from a year ago to US$300 bln in September, which was an improvement from the -8.8% drop in August and compares with the market's expected -7.6% decrease. This marked the fifth consecutive month of declining exports but was the least severe in the series. However, the result was underpinned by a very sharp +21% rise to Russia. Exports to normal countries were all very weak; to the US down -9.3%, the EU down -11.6%, to Japan down -6.4% and to Australia down more than -17%. This is a sign of the international trading blocs sharply cleaveing.

And staying in China, the IMF is warning there are heightened spillover risks from the country's property woes.

In Singapore, their central bank announced it would shift from half-yearly policy reviews to quarterly.

In Australia, they go to the polls today on their innovative referendum on a non-binding Voice to Parliament for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island peoples. This effort to address the mammoth power imbalance that has built up since the arrival of Europeans seems bound to fail in a sea of misinformation and fears that seem unfounded. The imbalance benefiting the status quo will likely be maintained.

The UST 10yr yield starts today down -8 bps from yesterday at 4.63% which is -15 bps lower than a week ago. Their key 2-10 yield curve is more inverted, now by -43 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now still at -76 bps. Their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is much more today at -81 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.44% and unchanged from yesterday. But the China 10 year bond rate is back down -2 bps at 2.72%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +8 bps at 5.51%. A week ago it was at 5.61%.

The S&P500 is down -0.6% in Friday trade and limiting its weekly gain to +0.8%. Overnight, European markets all fell by about -1.5% except London which was down -0.6% on the day. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Friday session down -0.6% to be up +4.2% for the week. Hong Kong ended down a sharp -2.3% to only book a +1.3% weekly gain. And Shanghai closed down -0.6% for a -0.4% weekly retreat. The ASX200 was also down -0.6% on the day but it managed a +1.4% gain for the week. The NZX50 ended its Friday session down -0.2% and a similar weekly dip.

The Fear & Greed index we follow is still hard over on the 'fear' side even if not as extreme as this time last week.

The price of gold will start today at US$1928/oz abd up a sharp +US$59/oz from this time yesterday. That has cumulated to a heady +5.4% rise for the week.

Oil prices have turned around and risen a very sharp +US$4.50/bbl to be now at just on US$86/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just on US$89.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$82 and US$84 respectively.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.9 USc and down another -½c from yesterday as commodity currencies stay out of favour. Recall a week ago this rate was 60 USc so more than a -1c fall for the week. Against the Aussie we are slightly softer at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down to 56.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at under 69.3 which is down -40 bps from yesterday and down -60 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$26,713 which is a mere +0.1% firmer that this time yesterday. A week ago this price was US$27,897 so it has fallen -4.2% since then Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at +/-0.8%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».