A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; end of the 6.7% SBS rate, smaller dwellings costing more, PwC dumped, positive moves on inflation expectations, swaps lower, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None again today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has ended its 6.7% one year TD special. But they have raised their nine month offer to 6.15%, among other minor changes. That leaves Rabobank's 6.30% the highest bank one year offer, closely followed by BNZ's 6.25% 'special'.

LESS FOR MORE
The size of new homes is declining while the cost of building them keeps going up. The average size of new homes has shrunk by a third in the last 10 years.

A RARE TENDER
Both Westpac Banking Group and subsidiary Westpac NZ have put their external audit out to tender. Westpac has used PwC (or its earlier versions) since 1968. PwC isn't invited this time. PwC was group at the center of the awful integrity issues at the ATO. PwC Australia is responding with sharp job cuts as work dries up. Large corporates are moving into an era of audit rotation.

'TRADIES WILL BUY EVs'
BMI/Fitch sees new vehicle demand falling -7.1% this year as household buying power and the clean car discount distortions bite. But they see a recovery next year although not back to 2022 levels. Interestingly, they see demand for utes rising as tradies start adopting EVs, especially feature laden versions from China.

MORE POPULAR BONDS
The Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) issued $150 mln in bonds today in three tranches. They got 40 bids worth $580 mln. The $50 mln April 2027 went for a yield of 5.26% pa (6 winners). The $50 mln April 2029 went for a yield of 5.42% (2 winners). And the $50 mln April 2033 went for a yield of 5.76% (3 winners). Interestingly, the April 2027 LGFA yield was lower than the recent equivalent NZGB (5.32%). But the other two went for premiums of +20 to +25 bps over the equivalent NZGBs.

PROGRESS
The influential RBNZ survey of expectations shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation. House prices expected to rise.

HUGE OUTAGE
In Australia, major telco Optus has been hit with a major outage, one that is affecting more than 10 mln people. Their Government is not happy.

SWAPS SHIFT LOWER
Wholesale swap rates have probably eased back today. The real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63% and now +13 bps above the OCR. Financial markets no longer price in any chance of an RBNZ rate rise over the next three years. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down a sharp -18 bps from yesterday to 4.59%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.68%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down another -11 bps at 5.18% from yesterday, and the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 5.15% which was down -10 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is down at 4.58% and down -6 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.94% and up +8 bps, so the curve inversion has deepened to -36 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is down -0.6% in late trade today. The ASX200 is down -0.4%. Tokyo has opened down -0.8%. Hong Kong is down -0.7% at its open. Shanghai has opened -0.3% lower. Singapore is also -0.3% lower at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday session up a minor +0.2% is confused trade today.

GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1968 and down -US$7 from where were this time yesterday. Earlier it closed in New York at US$1969/oz. Earlier still it closed in London at US$1971/oz.

NZD STABLE
The Kiwi dollar has moved -20 bps lower to 59.3 USc. But against the Aussie we are +20 bps firmer at 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also a little softer at 55.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 69.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is firmer today, now at US$35,401 and up +1.3% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 2.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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