What happened Monday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Heartland tweaks Notice Savers higher, immigration angst in NZ & AU, POT selldown starts, swaps firm, NZD on hold, & more

11th Dec 23, 4:00pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank has added +25 bps to their Notice Saver accounts, taking their 32 day version to 5.50% and their 90 day version to 5.75%.

SELLDOWN COMING
The Bay of Plenty Regional Council is about to begin public consultation to sell down its 54% holding the the Port of Tauranga POT), to 28% over time.

"WE ARE INHERITING ... A COMPLETE HASH"
Prime Minister Luxon says the 118,800 net immigrants into New Zealand in the year to September 'doesn't feel sustainable at all' and our current migration settings are 'way too loose'. Interestingly, today the Australian Government (a Labor one at that) also claimed it has a "broken" migration system there too.

BIPARTISAN COMMITMENT - 72 MONTHS LEFT
The incoming National Party minister of climate change, Simon Watts, told the COP28 Conference: "New Zealand has an ambitious NDC to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 50 per cent below gross 2005 levels by 2030. We are committed to achieving this, and our 2050 domestic net zero target, by tackling the key drivers of emissions, and working with the private sector so they make transformative investments."

HISTORICALLY AVERAGE
If you run our soil moisture animation you will notice that 2023 is remarkably similar to the historical average - although slightly wetter in Tairawhiti and the Bay of Plenty. No sign of El Nino yet.

LOOKING UP
The latest official sentiment survey for large Japanese businesses has revealed fast rising optimism, their best in two years.

SWAPS FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63% and still +13 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.68%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps at 5.03%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.95% which was up +6 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.25% and up +2 bps from this morning, up +8 bps from this time Friday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.74% so that key curve inversion is again deeper, now at -49 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED WITH CHINA MARKETS SINKING
The NZX50 is down -0.4% in late trade to start the week. The ASX200 is up a minor +0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up a strong +1.8% in early trade. But Hong Kong is down a sharp -1.6% at its open, and Shanghai is down a very sharp (for them) -0.7%. Singapore is down -0.6% at its open for the week. The S&P500 futures suggest that Wall Street might open up +1.1% tomorrow.

OIL HOLDS
The crude oil price is essentially unchanged from this morning, still at US$71.50/bbl in the US, and the Brent benchmark is still at US$76/bbl.

GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2003/oz and down -US$2 from where we opened this morning.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.7 USc, where it was this time Friday and down -40 bps from where we opened this morning. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 56.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at70.2.

BITCOIN BREATHER EXTENDS
The bitcoin price has moved down to US$43,637 and a small retreat of -0.4% from where we opened today. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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29 Comments

by blobbles | 11th Dec 23, 4:15pm 1702264532

Luxon and Brooke claiming that making worker tenure dramatically less secure, more productive. I can't help but laugh, that didn't work under Key, but it will definitely work now, because we apparently need "an adaptable workforce" (i.e. one that can be repeatedly fired and others rehired at cheaper and cheaper rates). That is increasing productivity by, and this is their claim, it reduces costs to businesses. Clueless on what productivity is, once again.

by DaveB1978 | 11th Dec 23, 5:20pm 1702268430

The 90 day trial period gives the employer the opportunity to take a chance on somebody. If anyone will just fire and hire a new person just because it might be a bit cheaper isn’t good at business because the costs of hiring someone isn’t just the salary. If workers are remotely competent it is often cheaper to retain them than fire them and get a replacement.

by nktokyo | 11th Dec 23, 5:58pm 1702270723

I own a business and talk to other owners, nobody spends time training someone with a plan to fire them and redo the whole process in a few month. That sounds like a green party leaflet statement.

by Grattaway | 11th Dec 23, 5:25pm 1702268702

Blobbles is that what really happens in NZ - or did you just make it up because it suits some agenda

by blobbles | 11th Dec 23, 8:58pm 1702281501

Happened to a couple of young ones I know. One of them moved cities for the job they were employed for as an financial administrator. Her new boss got her to sort out his books for her, which she did in record time to show how good she was. Around day 80, clearly satisfied she sorted out his companies books, it was out the door. She up-ended her life and worked her ass off for a boss who then threw her out, citing being "unsatisfied with her performance", which of course was total horse manure. Apparently he then employed someone younger with less experience but that he could pay cheaper to just run the systems she setup. Similar thing happened to an IT guy I know, they bought him on, got him working on product from day 5, then after delivering a bunch of work for them to try and impress them... out the door. Both roles came with the promise of more pay once the 90 day period ended, but of course they start on very low wages.

Its often an excuse to not have to employ people on short term contracts. You just bring in someone with a verbal future promise of a role, but then kick them out when it gets close to the end. Sure, thats not all employers, but it is some unscrupulous ones that don't give a sh%t.

Funny thing its less likely to go down like this for people that work in McDs etc, because the above poster is right, training etc means those people develop well over time. But it does mean that the semi/highly skilled can be taken advantage of in roles which have specific skills/expert knowledge, with empty promises of future work.

by J.C. | 11th Dec 23, 4:24pm 1702265098

Well this aint good. At least Americans should know by now that buying houses is not some kind of antifragile method of paying for shelter and 'investing' / saving all rolled into one.

New homeowners across the U.S. are confronting a rapid depreciation in their home values.

With recent data showing an average loss of $122,000 in home value in some areas, the American Dream is showing signs of wear.

The past year has seen the American housing market shift, and property values are now in "freefall," according to a November study issued by Point2Homes. Owners who battled historic mortgage rates to purchase their homes are now facing a market in retreat as single-family homes shed up to $223 daily in value.

https://www.newsweek.com/housing-market-drop-new-homeowners-loss-equity…

by IT GUY | 11th Dec 23, 4:41pm 1702266082

What happened today

People did not open their wallets for Xmas..... simple xmas this year folks its friends, family and non-craft beer. Its about the experience not the gifts. boxing day sales going to start xmas eve or before.

by nktokyo | 11th Dec 23, 5:59pm 1702270788

I'm enjoying my Hazy IPA on the balcony while I read the comments.

by IT GUY | 11th Dec 23, 6:30pm 1702272613

I have a blueberry sour and an English Fuggles / EKG pale ale at hand, both made myself....

by dumbthoughts | 11th Dec 23, 6:48pm 1702273681

Boxing day sales have been starting before Christmas Day for a couple of years already, right?

I remember being one of the lone dissenting voices about 10 years ago when I worked in the marketing department for a very large chain retailer. It was put to a raise of hands who in the office was in favour of sending out Boxing Day Sale email promotions (along with Facebook advertising and so on) at around 1pm on Christmas Day, because there was some research done that indicated by 1pm the average person is sick to death of their family, has opened all their presents already and hopefully has some money and/or gift cards to spend while lounging around waiting for the turkey to finish.

The arms race for the Boxing Day dollar began some time ago ... it won't be long until Black Friday and Boxing Day all blend into one.

by IT GUY | 11th Dec 23, 7:38pm 1702276710

If you are not christian its just a public holiday with gifts....

by HughJorgan | 11th Dec 23, 4:50pm 1702266610

This is what is wrong with Auckland. Under 500m from a train station and we put a massive car showroom and parking.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/133431160/toyota-opens-doors-to-its-largest-dealership-in-the-country

by solardb | 11th Dec 23, 4:53pm 1702266816

gotta copy Merica , thats progress.

by K.W. | 11th Dec 23, 5:04pm 1702267441

I like the Asian ones, they put them in the middle of a multi-level mall (with entry from the carpark so you can drive them out). Something for Westfield and KPG to think about.

by RossoCorsa | 11th Dec 23, 5:16pm 1702268205

No offence intended.. but doesn't this make sense?

E.G. People can drop their car off for a service and catch the train. Or, people without a car can catch the train there, have a short walk, and browse the car yard.

Wellington has gone the other way and removed all the carparks along Cambridge/Kent which makes car shopping along there somewhat more difficult.

Where would you have put the car yard?

by DaveB1978 | 11th Dec 23, 5:26pm 1702268765

It makes good sense, especially when you take into account servicing cars. Means people might not pay for a courtesy car and use public transport instead. They might even see benefits in public transport.

by GetFeeling | 11th Dec 23, 5:48pm 1702270113

Satire?

by RossoCorsa | 11th Dec 23, 6:05pm 1702271119

It's a little hard to tell these days!

by HughJorgan | 11th Dec 23, 8:35pm 1702280135

Rosso, I hope that is satire. Best way so there is no confusion is to go “/s” afterwards.

by rolande | 11th Dec 23, 8:37pm 1702280239

Or the owners of the car yards can provide customer parking and the roads can be used for people wanting to move around the place.

by solardb | 11th Dec 23, 4:52pm 1702266724

Simon watts may be quite a reasonable man , but his speech calling for the end of fossil fuels at COP , after receiving the fossil award for reopening exploration for fossil fuels smacks of hypocrisy.

by blobbles | 11th Dec 23, 5:03pm 1702267384

We are well into the era of double-speak. Orwell would be proud as his fiction becomes reality.

by IT GUY | 11th Dec 23, 5:13pm 1702268031

Peace is War!

by fortunr | 11th Dec 23, 6:44pm 1702273474

The era was inaugurated by Jacinda & Co., the master gaslighters and obfuscators par excellence.

by Grattaway | 11th Dec 23, 5:31pm 1702269068

mate you're dreaming - but if he is comparing net with gross he might just be right

by agnostium | 11th Dec 23, 6:32pm 1702272727

Scum, no other words for this. Chris Bishop clip when he was a tobacco lobbyist. Shows the values of the man.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoTUo5iRI1Y&t=187s

by Baywatch | 11th Dec 23, 6:39pm 1702273195

Agree...lowlife bottom feeder....

by Jonny.Foe | 11th Dec 23, 8:01pm 1702278096

Luxon September 2023: Calls for Govt to dramatically increase immigration to bring in much needed workers.

Luxon December 2023: Migration settings are way too loose - previous Govt blah blah blah.

by KH | 11th Dec 23, 8:16pm 1702279004

Glad PM Luxon said this "......Prime Minister Luxon says the 118,800 net immigrants into New Zealand in the year to September 'doesn't feel sustainable at all' and our current migration settings are 'way too loose'. Interestingly, today the Australian Government (a Labor one at that) also claimed it has a "broken" migration system there too......."

But I still think they are not going to dial it down much.