Holiday briefing: Inflation retreats, oil prices tumble

Economy / news

US inflation expectations retreat; Fed balance sheet shrinks fast; EU sentiment rises; NZ dairy exports to China now tariff-free; UST 10yr 3.98%; gold down and oil slumps; NZ$1 = 62.5 USc; TWI-5 = 70.8

9th Jan 24, 7:19am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events over the holiday weekend that affect New Zealand, with another quick news wrap-up so you can get back to 'time-off'.

Firstly, for those who missed yesterday's update, we now expect the Barfoot December results tomorrow (Wednesday).

We start today in the US, with lower inflation expectations for both food and rent that are depowering price increases there. Consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell for a third consecutive month to 3% in December from 3.4% in November and the lowest level since January 2021.

American consumer debt levels are due later this morning and only a modest +US$9 bln rise is anticipated.

Meanwhile, the US Fed balance sheet was reduced by a net -10% to US$7.7 tln in 2023, and this was despite the emergency addition of almost US$400 bln in March to cover their SVB/regional banking crisis. That lost them three months of progress.

And we should perhaps note that in the wake of the latest Boeing 737MAX troubles and fleet grounding, Air New Zealand does not have any of these aircraft. Boeing's stock suffered a sharp -10% fall yesterday but no more today.

In the EU, overall sentiment recorded a moderate gain in December, perhaps a surprise given their lackluster recent economic performances. The rises were driven by higher confidence among consumers, and managers in retail trade, services, and construction, while confidence in industry remained broadly unchanged.

Maybe part of that improvement can be attributed to a good rise in November exports from Germany, and a modest rise in November factory orders there.

We should also note that from the start of 2024, all Chinese tariffs on New Zealand dairy products expired and these exports are duty-free into China now. China is our largest export market, taking more than 34% of dairy exports. Likewise, New Zealand is China’s largest source of dairy imports, accounting for 46% of China's total dairy imports. Chinese firms have bought up Westland Milk, Oceania Dairy, as well as being involved in exporting both fresh milk and infant milk powder products, and these direct ownership links have powered these exports.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.98% and down -7 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is unchanged however, still inverted by -34 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is morel inverted, now by -89 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is also more inverted, now by -142 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.10% and -7 bps lower. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.57% and holding. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is actually +6 bps higher at 4.71%.

Wall Street has started its Monday session with the S&P500 up +0.7%, despite the Boeing slump. Overnight, European markets were up something similar, except London which was little-changed. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Monday session up +0.3%. But the Chinese markets sank with Hong King down -1.9% and Shanghai down -1.4%. Shenzhen was also down -1.9%. Singapore ended its Monday session little-changed. The ASX200 ended down -0.5% and the NZX50 was down a relatively minor -0.1%.

The price of gold will start today down -US$12/oz at just on US$2033/oz.

Oil prices are sharply lower, down -US$4 at just over US$70/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just under US$75.50/bbl. A surprise price cut by Saudi Arabia has jolted this market - mainly because the Saudi's feel they have been gamed by Iran, Russia, and a number of other intermediate producers like Angola and Nigeria.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 62.5 USc and marginally firmer from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are holding at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are softer at 56.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 70.8 and little-changed from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today higher again, rising to US$44,972 and a further gain of +2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.4%.

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91 Comments

by Audaxes | 9th Jan 24, 7:44am 1704739465

Inflation Expectations Tumble To Lowest Since Jan 2021, As Do Wage And Spending Growth, In Latest NY Fed Survey Link

And there we go Bank of America Corp. expects the Federal Reserve to announce plans to begin tapering the runoff of its Treasuries holdings in March, coinciding with its first 25 basis points interest-rate cut. Link

by Audaxes | 9th Jan 24, 7:47am 1704739665

What history tells us about rate cuts

The idea is straightforward: the economy struggles, and the Fed cuts rates to help. But is the impact as direct and positive as we're led to believe? Let's dive into the history and outcomes of these rate cuts.

by M0ralHazard | 9th Jan 24, 8:03am 1704740639

How do you always have these links and quotes ready to go on most articles posted Audaxes?

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 8:20am 1704741635

Suspect the mighty Audaxes is a voracious reader of deeper thinking.

by redcows1 | 9th Jan 24, 8:31am 1704742318

I suspect voracious doesn't even cover it.

by interesting1234 | 9th Jan 24, 4:11pm 1704769876

Sounds like he has more of a pound of flesh than just skin in the game for that level of analysis and reading.

by John from Bunnings | 9th Jan 24, 8:37am 1704742646

Because the idea of a rate cut for some people is too much to bear , as it generally means upward pressure for house prices. So the only way to cope is to submerge yourself in Permanent bearish sentiment by Twitter economists I guess.

by Audaxes | 9th Jan 24, 9:08am 1704744522

What's the bond market signalling? Thread.

Nvidia Rallies To Record High

by JimboJones | 9th Jan 24, 9:06am 1704744389

My current thinking is that houses are actually being sold at fair market value, there is no "ponzi", its just limited supply, high demand, and high cost to build. Some of this could be improved slightly (e.g. increase supply via regulation changes or decrease demand via tax changes), but it won't make significant difference. House prices are dependent on interest rates, but that doesn't really change affordability; in fact they are much less affordable now then when interest rates were lower. Maybe we all just need to accept that houses are going to be bloody expensive no matter what happens.

by Audaxes | 9th Jan 24, 9:13am 1704744832

“Ultimately there’s no natural income streams to be able to service and repay loans. What you have is capital gains which are contingent on the game continuing. So it’s a Ponzi scheme. says Werner. - https://wire.insiderfinance.io/richard-werner-qe-infinity-707e2c627e03

by refactornz | 9th Jan 24, 9:26am 1704745562

Yet most of us are able to pay our mortgages so it seems that there are natural income streams that are sufficient to service and repay loans.

by malamah | 9th Jan 24, 9:34am 1704746051

Where does the money you have today come from to pay for a mortgage you took out years ago?

Or rather, if you took out a $500,000NZD mortgage, and over 30 years paid $500,000NZD in interest, where did that additional $500,000NZD come from?

by Pragmatist | 9th Jan 24, 9:46am 1704746761

They earned it by working most likely.

by Audaxes | 9th Jan 24, 10:30am 1704749424

Sourced from employer working capital bank debt?

by Pragmatist | 9th Jan 24, 2:30pm 1704763800

Sourced from the employers income from whatever business they are in hopefully, not good if the employer has to pay the worker from working capital.

The same dollar can go through multiple hands in a month.

Customer pays employer, employer pays worker, worker pays Bank (mortgage), bank pays term deposit holder.. you get the idea.

by Gold Kiwi | 9th Jan 24, 2:39pm 1704764393

But there has to be new debt created to pay the interest on the loan, because it never existed as base money.

by Let me be Frank | 9th Jan 24, 7:25pm 1704781550

At last...someone asks the right question.

Where indeed...theoretically from 'growth'....and what does that mean?

Growth of what?

In our current system , it means money supply, but no one can measure (or control) it...problematic.

So we have a system that no one can control, but it underpins everything we do....but nevermind we have Central Banks..they'll sort it (lmao)

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 10:14am 1704748483

Yet most of us are able to pay our mortgages so it seems that there are natural income streams that are sufficient to service and repay loans.

Mortgages come from increasing the money supply (pvte bank credit creation) out of thin air. You should ponder as to why house prices increase at a nominal value greater than people's ability to generate income. What Werner is implying is that natural income streams come from productive activity. Property ponzis come from non-productivity activity such as credit creation. So ultimately if you're simply relying on greater credit creation to maintain your ponzi, you're diluting your monetary value and exposing your economy to booms / busts, inflation.

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jan 24, 11:22am 1704752579

Ultimately there’s no natural income streams to be able to service and repay loans

That's just plain wrong. We have rent and for those that own their own homes it means they save money on rent. Rents go up with inflation as does the value of property. However the initial investment cost remains the same. Mild Inflation is the friend of property owners.

The "tankies" on this forum really want to believe that property is a Ponzi scheme for some reason. I guess because property is a bulwark of capitalism and prior to that, feudalism. It's a bit "old school".

by malamah | 9th Jan 24, 11:50am 1704754223

Every year, average rent goes up. What is the source of the money which pays rent? Do you really believe it is magicked out of thin air?? Nothing existed before, then suddenly, money! And that money circulates the economy until it is used to pay rent??? Well, yea, you'd be right. And that is debt. Reliant on more debt to pay for the previous debt, subsidised by the government which also creates money out of thin air when it spends. So questions like, why do we have an accommodation supplement? To further support the expansion of debt. To pay back the debt of yesterday.

Rent is actually a great example, glad you brought it up. There is no productivity in rent. Nothing is produced in order for the transaction of rent to be made. It is entirely unearned. So the capital attributed to real productive enterprise wanes as rent increases its share of the economy, those pesky natural income streams fall. Though cafes and boat yards fare reasonably well.

Ultimately, and this is a big consideration, without rapid population growth, the country cannot consume enough to produce enough income to further fuel ever growing levels of both debt and wealth division.

For debt to increase, the security of income must be paid. For that, rent. For the increase in rent to be paid, incomes of the worker need to increase, so productivity must increase. So investment in productivity must increase. But we are heading in the other direction and investing in non-productive assets. There is simply not enough to consume to support this growth forever, and thus a highly financialised world which relies on debt to pay debt backed by assets which increase in "value". At some point, the bags will be held by the last bag holders, and the debts will be called. And at that point, there will be financial collapse. Who knows when, but it is inevitable.

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jan 24, 12:49pm 1704757769

Yes, and the sun will supernova at some point in the future as well.

Currently, people pay rent with money earned by wages, salary, benefits, investments etc. Imagine if you said, "What is the source of the money which pays for food? Same answer. Money comes from labour and resources. This is not peculiar to property.

by malamah | 9th Jan 24, 1:20pm 1704759631

Yes, and those wages, salaries, benefits are getting lower and lower, GDP per capita dropping. Not to mention our account balance is also falling. So back to the initial point, lower income to service higher debt - which only works as interest rates are pushed lower and lower and lower. We're two years into a significant tightening cycle, which means all that debt is more expensive than ever. In fact debt is not really growing at all, soon it will be contracting as more money exits the economy than is created.

Those resources, that food - that is not growing at a pace that can keep up with the creation of money for speculation.

It can really all be summed up quite easily; how many average income full time working 25 year olds do you need to stuff in a $1m 2br townhouse to make the numbers work for positive cashflow investment, currently? 6?

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jan 24, 1:31pm 1704760262

Well, there are quite a few 2br townhouses for around 600k and renting out for $540 a week or something like that. My daughter and her boyfriend just moved into such a place and everything is quite comfortable. Currently the return for the landlord may not be as good as other investments but things will work out just fine over time.

by malamah | 9th Jan 24, 1:42pm 1704760928

P&I 600k @ 7% = $48k p.a

Rates, insurance, maintenance and PM = ~$10k pa

Rent: $540*52 = $28k pa

The anecdote is $30k short at "discounted" price. What debt was taken at the peak? Looks like $800k would need 6 adults by this math.

by JimboJones | 9th Jan 24, 1:46pm 1704761199

Rent: $540*52 = $28k pa - that is one very good tenant!

The only saving grace is that rent will continue to go up with inflation whereas the debt goes down with inflation.

by malamah | 9th Jan 24, 1:49pm 1704761370

The only saving grace is that rent can only continue to go up with more debt and immigration whereas the debt goes down with more debt.

FTFY

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 2:06pm 1704762393

The only saving grace is that rent will continue to go up with inflation whereas the debt goes down with inflation.

Yes. When I hear this at the water cooler, I usually agree. But what most people don't understand is:

- Income growth has been lower than asset price growth across the Anglosphere for 30+ years. People really struggle with this one.

- Rents are constrained by income growth. Except if you go into slumlording and try to fit as many bodies as possible into a property.

- If the cost of shelter takes a greater proportion of share of wallet, less is spent into the consumer economy so less revenue, profits and pressure on wages. This has a symbiotic relationship with the property ponzi. On the way up, on the way down.

by interesting1234 | 9th Jan 24, 4:43pm 1704771828

I consider money to be debt full stop. Fiat currency has always been a promise to pay, rather than any intrinsic value in and of itself, hence why when banks stopped using gold as the currency which can be mined from the ground, and moved to notes which were marked as along the lines of "I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of", they essentially got a government-backed licence to loan credit into being under the guise of profiting from it over the long term.

by Zwifter | 9th Jan 24, 12:51pm 1704757889

Debt is the way the monetary system works. You get a loan which is in effect payment for your labour for the next 25 years up front with you slowly paying it back. You pay for the house and then that house value is money in actual existence. You finally beat the system when the mortgage is paid off and you are totally debt free. Really its not that hard to grasp, new money is lent into existence and of course total debt is always rising, after all the population is rising and inflation is only making things more expensive over the long term. This system will not collapse, it will be something else that takes it down be it wars, climate change or a major pandemic.

by malamah | 9th Jan 24, 1:19pm 1704759579

Sounds like mum and dad gave you that advice too.

of course total debt is always rising

No, it has been rising for a while now. But the underlying securities which support much of that debt have taken a haircut, cannot be sold to repay the debts, and as the initial point was made, the income streams needed to support this debt at todays interest rates simply do not exist. The only way to make them exist would be to push interest rates lower than during covid as we are in an almost purely financialised environment.

Nothing can be produced to pay back the debt, only a greater fool is needed.

by Zwifter | 9th Jan 24, 1:53pm 1704761639

You have a warped view on things, good luck with that. Prefer my outlook on things it has already proven to be correct. Clear that debt and its nothing but blue sky.

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jan 24, 4:02pm 1704769368

It's a handy view to have if you don't want to do anything. If I were a young person I might be attracted to this view and be looking forward to the end times.

Trouble is, as Adam Smith said, "There is a great deal of ruin in a nation".

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 2:16pm 1704763017

Debt is the way the monetary system works.

Global debt to GDP is approx 3-4x. If interest rates are at zero, all good. But a 1% increase in debt servicing has an oversized impact and toll on the sheeple. The irony is that they have to take on more debt to service the debt and consume. Audaxes links to this phenomenon below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-credit-shocker-november-debt…

by WestieAJ | 9th Jan 24, 3:29pm 1704767362

Total global debt is 307 Trillion or 307 Million Million or USD $307,000,000,000,000. That is equal to approx $61,000 NZD for each of the 8.045 billion people on the planet today.

The average global personal income is NZD 15698 per year. The average global household income is NZD 19734 per year. The median per-capita household income is only NZD 4710 per year

What could possibly go wrong.

by Zwifter | 9th Jan 24, 3:56pm 1704769015

Well its worked perfectly fine so far so why would you think its all going to fall over tomorrow ? Its all just numbers in the machine, there is no upper limit.

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 4:30pm 1704771042

Well its worked perfectly fine so far so why would you think its all going to fall over tomorrow ? Its all just numbers in the machine, there is no upper limit.

Hence the focus on and need for neo-feudalism, slavery, and cheap labor. Rampant in the Anglosphere.

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jan 24, 5:07pm 1704773258

The Dark Side.

by interesting1234 | 9th Jan 24, 4:46pm 1704771964

Zimbabwe thought the same thing

by Zwifter | 9th Jan 24, 7:21pm 1704781301

Not the same thing, The whole of Africa has a massive corruption problem. Other countries like Argentina have been losers for decades and have multiple defaults. Plenty of countries in trouble financially and there are obvious reasons for that that even people that don't even live there can see.

by Yvil | 9th Jan 24, 10:03am 1704747817

"House prices are dependent on interest rates, but that doesn't really change affordability; in fact they are much less affordable now then when interest rates were lower.". Revisit this statement by the end of this year, the house prices are likely to be about what they are now but interest rates will be lower.

"Maybe we all just need to accept that houses are going to be bloody expensive no matter what happens" Yes indeed!

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 10:17am 1704748632

Depends Dr Y. You may look at a house price index that you don't understand at the end of the year and believe that prices have only fallen X% when in reality they've fallen much further.

by Flying high | 9th Jan 24, 10:18am 1704748717

I'm sorry I have given up listening to your poor forecasts

by Yvil | 9th Jan 24, 1:23pm 1704759837

Then don't reply to them. It would be nice if you also gave up writing snarky posts about everyone else.

by Flying high | 9th Jan 24, 3:38pm 1704767885

If you dont like my comments don't act smarty pants like yesterday when asking what happens to a mortgage and then batting off valid replies.

Your housing DGM forecasts have been way off mark

by nigelh | 9th Jan 24, 11:56am 1704754595

I think he's a voluntary contributor to interest.

by Let me be Frank | 9th Jan 24, 10:01pm 1704790913

If you read heterodox thinking it isnt difficult to find an alternative viewpoint....Interest.co largely advocates the mainstream view, unsurprisingly.

by Audaxes | 9th Jan 24, 7:53am 1704739985

American consumer debt levels are due later this morning and only a modest +US$9 bln rise is anticipated.

Banks don't take deposits and they never lend money. They are in the business of purchasing securities. When one gets a bank loan, the loan contract is a promissory note. The bank purchases that contract from the borrower. Now the bank owes the borrower money and it creates a record of the money it owes, which we call deposits - source.

What is this book about? It is about the taking of collateral, all of it, the end game of this globally synchronous debt accumulation super cycle. This is being executed by long-planned, intelligent design, the audacity and scope of which is difficult for the mind to encompass. Included are all financial assets, all money on deposit at banks, all stocks and bonds, and hence, all underlying property of all public corporations, including all inventories, plant and equipment, land, mineral deposits, inventions and intellectual property. Privately owned personal and real property financed with any amount of debt will be similarly taken, as will the assets of privately owned businesses, which have been financed with debt. If even partially successful, this will be the greatest conquest and subjugation in world history.

by Baywatch | 9th Jan 24, 8:05am 1704740711

Update: Bitcoin up 7% today so far ...hopefully no rug pull this week..(ETF)

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 8:17am 1704741469

Price action maybe partly related to Standard Charter's forecast for $50b-$100b of inflows into spot ratty ETFs in 2024 (released y'day). Assuming that the ETF is approved.

You have to ask yourself whether or not this is ethical to release such info so close to the ETF deadlines and announcements. What if the ETF were not approved? Just because SC can affix a disclaimer to protect themselves, it doesn't seem kosher to me. That to me is a more vicious rug pull than the SEC following their playbook.

by Baywatch | 9th Jan 24, 8:27am 1704742025

So much debate..looking forward to getting past this (once approved) so we can get back to arguing here why BTC will go to Zero by Xmas.

by LASSET | 9th Jan 24, 8:28am 1704742116

There has never been, nor should we ever expect, any correlation between the words ‘ethical and ‘financial system’.

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 8:42am 1704742927

There has never been, nor should we ever expect, any correlation between the words ‘ethical and ‘financial system’.

Yes indeed. TBH, when the brand-name grifters are promoting the ratty ETF as the best opportunity on the horizon, it makes me a little uncomfortable. It's all happened so quickly and these people simply cannot be trusted. Anyway, my colleagues playing in that sandpit are still very much stuck in normie-think. Still plenty of skepticism and opposition.

by LASSET | 9th Jan 24, 9:08am 1704744522

They absolutely cannot be trusted. As usual it will be about whatever makes them the most money. And that could be the saving grace preventing a possible rug pull. This will be one of the most successful ETFs in history and the big boys will make bank. They will absolutely also be thinking they can make money from directives, but I think they will fail. Honestly I think we have been lucky that the ETFs have been denied for a decade. With 19.6M BTC out of 21M already mined, it means the sheer concentration of BTC in the hands of holders is simply too high for them to do what they did with gold.

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 9:26am 1704745575

Typo there. Derivatives not directives. The gold ETFs are a great example of market capture. It's criminal in more ways than one. But most people simply don't care so they're allowed to go on their merry way manipulating the price and clipping the ticket along the way. The central bankers and politicians are happy as their incompetence is not exposed in front of the sheeple who still believe the monetary and financial systems are sound.

by Yvil | 9th Jan 24, 10:08am 1704748086

I watched the doco "Bitconned" on netflix last night. It's just unbelievable how crooked some people are, and how toothless the the US justice system is ! I highly recommend this watch.

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 10:22am 1704748950

Silly name for the doco as Centra Tech had nothing to do with Bitcoin but was all about an ICO .Total value of the fraud - $25 mio. Chump change.

by Yvil | 9th Jan 24, 1:24pm 1704759893

Did you like the doco?

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 1:45pm 1704761113

Haven't watched it yet Dr Y. Watched Dumb Money recently and thought it was a fun movie. I know Bitconned is a doco and will get around to watching it at some point.

by TronMVP | 9th Jan 24, 4:17pm 1704770253

I watched it last night, and would recommend readers here to see it.

by TronMVP | 9th Jan 24, 4:15pm 1704770157

Centra Tech Conned doesn't have the same ring to it, don't you think?

Although that scam was only conning people out of $30 million, the total scammed from all the fraudulent ICO is in the billions. There are a lot of con artists out there and people need to be wary.

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 4:33pm 1704771211

Although that scam was only conning people out of $30 million, the total scammed from all the fraudulent ICO is in the billions. There are a lot of con artists out there and people need to be wary.

"Billions" is chump change. Put in the work and you won't wrecked by crypto scams. It's usually those who haven't put in the work and normies dipping their toes that fall for this stuff.

by TronMVP | 9th Jan 24, 10:00pm 1704790813

I don't disagree with your statement, but I would have to add that there are billions of normies in the world who could potentially lose hundreds of billions to scams.

by profile | 9th Jan 24, 8:26am 1704741991

What happens when everyone gets a degree. Is the taxpayer getting value for money?

"Second, employers can no longer rely on applicants with university degrees to be more capable or smarter than those without degrees."

Meta-analysis: On average, undergraduate students' intelligence is merely average

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1309142/abstract

by Baywatch | 9th Jan 24, 8:28am 1704742113

Is the taxpayer getting value for money?

Well in NZ the taxpayer is not on the hook..are you talking about Boomer degrees paid for by the state?

by morepork | 9th Jan 24, 8:36am 1704742577

The government still pays about 2/3 of the cost for local students, plus the fees free year

by profile | 9th Jan 24, 8:47am 1704743251

The taxpayer is on the hook at least $2500/household/annum for Tabitha to get her BA.

by kiwikidsnz | 9th Jan 24, 8:52am 1704743537

...net taxpayers - a reducing number

by Baywatch | 9th Jan 24, 8:59am 1704743949

I am sure Luxy will repeal that by lunchtime.., in the meantime Gen Z (tax payers) paying for Boomers kids degrees...well played!

by Yvil | 9th Jan 24, 10:10am 1704748208

What's a Gen Z ?

by Baywatch | 9th Jan 24, 12:16pm 1704755814

Really?

by Zwifter | 9th Jan 24, 4:18pm 1704770289

Short for Gen Zombie

by Pragmatist | 9th Jan 24, 5:19pm 1704773942

Given the proliferation of ADHD in gen Z, are they Zombies on Meth?

by mfd | 9th Jan 24, 5:24pm 1704774284

You mean the proliferation of ADHD awareness? Plenty of boomers out there who need a good dose of Ritalin or similar but either don't know or won't admit it.

by Zwifter | 9th Jan 24, 7:23pm 1704781415

Probably not but a good dose of Viagra wouldn't go amiss.

by Richardfromauckland | 9th Jan 24, 9:46am 1704746788

Who's Tabitha?

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jan 24, 8:48am 1704743339

This was often noted in my field of Information Technology.

by JimboJones | 9th Jan 24, 9:09am 1704744577

You want a doctor with no tertiary training? Would be much cheaper I guess...

by Luron Iosefa | 9th Jan 24, 8:32am 1704742345

Good Morning to all tuned in to Interest.co.nz this morning!

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by kiwikidsnz | 9th Jan 24, 8:41am 1704742909

"2024 will mark 40 years since the great acceleration of policy reform that began with the election on the 4th Labour government..."

40 years on | croaking cassandra

by Foxglove. | 9th Jan 24, 9:03am 1704744202

Have to think probably the most dynamic & adventurous government New Zealand has ever witnessed. Whatever you might agree or disagree with their results, nobody could accuse them of being a boring lot could they.

by Audaxes | 9th Jan 24, 9:29am 1704745796

Consumer Credit Shocker: November Debt Soars After Second Biggest Surge In Credit Card Debt On Record

... what was the big shock in today's data was the blowout surge in revolving credit, which in November exploded by a whopping $19.133BN, a record surge from the $2.9BN in October, and the second biggest monthly increase in credit card debt on record!

This, despite the average interest rate on credit card accounts in Q4 flat at a record high 22.75% for the second quarter in a row.

by Audaxes | 9th Jan 24, 9:34am 1704746074

Credit card companies are making more money on penalties than they’re actually making an interest. Well, all of that is counted in the national income accounts under providing financial services. It’s a service when you increase the penalty on depositors. This is the kind of grey area you get when they won’t acknowledge that the phenomenon of rent is unearned income whose payment becomes a cost of living and a cost of doing business and a cost to companies that have to pay labor to pay various forms of economic rent, but it’s not part of the production. So the statement that American GDP is growing overlooks the fact that the actual product is tapering off or shrinking. All this growth is from the wealthiest 10% that are making their money through rent extraction. It’s an extraction activity, a zero-sum activity. The money that the financial sector or the landlord or the monopolist gets is not adding to the product. It’s a transfer payment from the consumer or the renter or the debtor to the rentier at the top. Our economic statistics pretend to be empirical, but they are not describing how the world really works at all. They’re describing a kind of parallel universe. Link

by streetwise | 9th Jan 24, 12:59pm 1704758350

It's highly likely that if your British ancestors came from Ireland, Scotland, of England during the 1800's most emigrated because English land owners (landed gentry) had deprived them of the land that they had used to support themselves:

In Ireland the English land owners took back the land that the Irish rented off them to grow potatoes to feed themselves. There was a potato blight that rendered the potatos inedible so they couldn't feed themselves or sell the surplus to pay the rent to the English landlords. This brought about the great "Irish Famine" where 1.5 million Irish died of starvation.

In Scotland the English land owners re-took the land the Scots depended on to grow their cereals or keep a few cows. The English land owners did this so they could have a larger territory to raise sheep on. This process was called the :"Highland Clearances"

In England the English land owners helped themselves to the village common where most of the poor had a plot just large enough to grow food and keep a cow on. The English landowners then fenced off the common and held it for their own agricultural use leaving the commoners to starve. This process was called "The Enclosures".

Land confiscation by the English Landed Gentry was one of the reasons that your ancestors, and mine, emigrated to New Zealand. It was that or literally starve.

So don't listen to those stories where a great aunt tells you your ancestors came from noble Norman stock or similar.

Throughout history and even now money has never been the universal currency. It is arable or farmable land alone that throughout history has been the universal currency.

by Foxglove. | 9th Jan 24, 1:54pm 1704761697

Great grandfather aged 26 arrived here in 1850. Lived in the middle of Yorkshire, a farm labourer, probably had never seen the sea but survived from all accounts a pretty nasty voyage. Took opportunities in NZ that never would have remotely existed to end up as a respected farmer, mentioned in the NZETC. Searching back at the family history then and earlier, astonished by the sheer number of those sent to the gallows, robbery, theft of bread or similar, forgery, dud promissory notes, libel, perjury, vagrancy, and even bigamy and/or adultery. Blimey no wonder then anywhere else was a land of milk and honey.

by Zwifter | 9th Jan 24, 3:55pm 1704768909

So its such a shame many in NZ cannot see it. Too busy looking at the top 1% these days.

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jan 24, 5:10pm 1704773459

Sounds like you come from a bad lot Foxglove. My family barely did half of that.

by Foxglove. | 9th Jan 24, 5:59pm 1704776386

Well picked up. Once again careless with my syntax. Nothing as good as a laugh at yourself.

by solardb | 9th Jan 24, 9:53pm 1704790436

Then there were the "letterman ". Men who received a letter with a cheque every boat to stay in NZ, to keep them out of the family name in England.

Not a bad deal, I reckon.

by kiwikidsnz | 9th Jan 24, 9:14pm 1704788085

My ancestors who arrived in ~1860 got the quinella: fathers side from the Highlands & mothers from Ireland.

No one made a big thing about it, I was the first to really research the family tree.

by TronMVP | 9th Jan 24, 10:20pm 1704792018

Streetwise, can you reference your comments? My understanding is that, in Scotland, the land was taken by Scottish elite such as the Countess of Sutherland.

by J.C. | 9th Jan 24, 4:52pm 1704772328

33 years later and the Nikkei is back. Performed much better than NZ and Aussie indexes.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average briefly gained over 600 points Tuesday morning on the back of recent rises in U.S. stocks, hitting the highest level since the collapse of Japan’s bubble economy in the early 1990s.

At 9:09 a.m., the Nikkei average was up 612.86 points, or 1.84 pct, from Friday at 33,990.28, the highest since March 1990, in the midst of the bubble economy. The Japanese market was closed Monday for a national holiday

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/business/market/20240109-160730/