American court deals shake up two industries; Canada housing starts jump; China house prices fall again; strong Japanese wage gains; UST 10yr 4.31%; gold and oil slip; NZ$1 = 60.9 USc; TWI-5 = 69.9

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news strong wage gains in Japan set the scene for a global set of central bank monetary policy reviews this coming week.

But first, American consumer sentiment is holding its recent highs in March, essentially the same as the past three months and back at levels prevailing in mid 2021. And at these current levels it is up a sharp +23% in a year.

American industrial production rose (slightly) in February from January following a previous month retreat. Most of the gains were in construction activity. But it is still marginally lower (in real terms) than year ago levels.

But March won't be helped by activity in the New York region. They reported a sharpish decline in their latest survey.

Home buyer and sellers have had a major win in the US with their real estate industry conceding their ability to price-fix commission levels. The groundbreaking $700 mln legal agreement ends years of dispute and could drive down commission rates and shrink the number of real-estate agents over time.

And we should note than an Illinois jury has awarded punitive damages against Reckitt/Mead Johnson by accepting the claim that cow's-milk based baby formula causes necrotising enterocolitis in preterm infants, often with fatal consequences. The company said it would appeal.

In Canada, housing starts jumped by +14% in February from January, to 253,500 units and well above market expectations of 230,000 units, according to official data. It was the highest reading in four months

Chinese banks extended ¥1.45 tln in new loans in February, down from the record ¥4.9 tln in January. January is usually a seasonal high. The February level was basically as expected. But authorities would be disappointed it is not higher because they had taken action to encourage lending. The central bank had announced its largest-ever reduction in a key mortgage reference rate. And they signaled recently there was still room for cutting banks' RRR, following a 50-basis point cut in January. Banks are finding to tougher to identify more lending opportunities.

China's house prices are falling a bit faster now according to official data. New house prices were down -1.4% from a year ago. In January the decline was -0.7%. Only seven of the 70 largest cities recorded any rise, all tiny, from a month ago. From a year ago only 13 showed rises. For resales, only two of those same 70 cities recorded a rise in February from January, none on a year-ago basis. The declines are probably sharper than being recorded officially due to very low demand.

China's one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate was unchanged at 2.5% in today's update.

China’s national emissions trading scheme is set to expand to cover the aluminium sector as the compulsory carbon market pushes ahead to expand beyond the power sector and include more heavy emitters.

Global steel and iron ore prices are falling rather quickly now. Steel (rebar) is down -2.7% over the past week, and iron ore is down -10% over the same timeframe and may now be below US$100/tonne. Since the start of the year the reductions at -11% and -24% respectively. The steel price is back to 2009 levels as mill and port inventories rise and some steel mill profits have vanished. These pullbacks directly relate to soft Chinese demand. But copper is making a bit of a recovery, back to year ago levels after a longish soft patch. Supply limitations are driving this price higher.

Strong wage gains in Japan, and by much more than expected, are fueling speculation that that Bank of Japan won't wait any longer and will shift out of its negative policy rate when they meet on Tuesday.

Next week will see many central banks meet about their own monetary policy settings, including Australian, the US, Japan of course, Norway, Switzerland, England and Russia. There will be a raft of inflation reports out too.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.31% and up +1 bp from this time yesterday. That is up a sharp +29 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is a bit deeper at -42 bps. And their 1-5 curve inversion is a bit less less at -76 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is unchanged at -109 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.16% and up +1 bp from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.34%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.75%. It was at 4.69%.

Wall Street has started its Friday session with the S&P500 down -0.6% and heading for a flat weekly change. Overnight European markets closed unchanged except London fell -0.2%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Friday session down -0.3% which made it -1.3% lower for the week. Hong Kong fell -1.4% on the day to limit its gain to +1.9%. Shanghai shed rose +0.5% which enabled it to book a +0.4% weekly gain. Singapore ended down -0.4%. The ASX200 ended down -0.6% and a massive -2.3% for the week. That means most (but not quite all) of the 2024 gains have been reversed. The NZX50 was down -0.4% on Friday for a weekly retreat of -1.3%. So far in 2024 the NZX50 is up +0.3%.

The Fear & Greed index has changed little in a week and is still in the "greed" level.

The price of gold will start today -US$1 lower than yesterday at US$2157/oz. That is -US$29 lower than a week ago.

Oil prices have slipped -US$1 in the US to just over US$80.50/bbl in the US but the international Brent price is unchanged at US$85/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$77.50 and US$81.50 respectively.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at just under 60.9 USc and -½ lower than this time yesterday. That is a full -1c lower than a week ago. Against the Aussie we are nearly -½c lower at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also -½c lower at 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 69.9 and -40 bps lower than yesterday from yesterday and -40 bps lower in a week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,378 and down -4.1% from this time yesterday. At this level it is virtually unchanged from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme however at just on +/- 5.1%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».