Breakfast briefing: US Fed still sees three rate cuts in 2024

Economy / news

US Fed stays on track for 2024 rate cuts; China leaves LPRs unchanged; Taiwan export orders slump; EU sentiment rises; NZ Happiness slips; UST 10yr 4.28%; gold unchanged and oil slips; NZ$1 = 60.6 USc; TWI-5 = 69.6

21st Mar 24, 7:19am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the Fed has held its policy rate unchanged at 5.5% but given strong signals cuts are coming - but later than markets were expecting. However they still see three cuts in 2024.

The UST 10yr yield fell slightly on the news. The US dollar fell slightly too. Wall Street moved higher.

Meanwhile, American mortgage interest rates rose back to just on 7% last week for their benchmark 30 year fixed rate following the prior week's surprise drop. That came as mortgage applications ticked lower again last week and are now -14% lower than the same week a year ago.

China held its prime loan rates unchanged at record lows in its review yesterday. You will recall they cut its 5 year prime rate (the reference for mortgage lending) by an outsized -25% bps last month.

Taiwanese export orders slumped more than -10% in February, a surprise because markets had expected a +1.3% rise following a +1.9% gain in January. But it was not to be. Orders for heavy equipment fell, especially from the EU, Japan and China, and these falls overwhelmed their rising AI chip exports.

The EU sentiment rose to be less negative in its March survey. It is now at its least-weak level since February 2022, amid a gradual slowdown in inflation and optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the ECB later in the year.

Britain's inflation rate dropped to 3.4% in February, down from 4% recorded in both January and December and slightly below market expectation of 3.5%. It was their lowest rate since September 2021.

In Australia, a recent swell in business failures in construction, hospitality and retail has pushed up the number of monthly insolvencies to the highest in almost a decade. The absolute levels aren't high, but the trend will worry officials.

New Zealand has slipped one place in the World Happiness Report rankings, and now sits just outside the top ten (at #11) in 2024. Australia moved up from 12th last year to 10th this year.

The UST 10yr yield started today at 4.28% and down -2 bps from yesterday. After the Fed's decision it fell to 4.25%. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is less at -40 bps. And their 1-5 curve inversion is unchanged at -77 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is a bit more at -117 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.05% and little-changed. The China 10 year bond rate is lower at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.65%.

Wall Street opened its Wednesday session little-changed, awaiting the Fed. Then it jumped +0.3% immediately on the Fed news. Overnight, European markets saw London unchanged, Paris down -0.5% and Frankfurt up +0.2%. Yesterday Tokyo ended up +0.7%. Hong Kong was little-changed, up a mere +0.1%. Shanghai rose +0.6% however. Singapore ended up +0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session down -0.1% while the NZX50 was up +0.1%.

The price of gold will start today little-changed from yesterday at US$2157/oz.

Oil prices are lower today at just on US$81/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on at US$85/bbl. Both are -US$1.50 lower than this time yesterday.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at just on 60.4 USc and a small -10 bps dip from yesterday. After the Fed news, it rose to 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 69.6 and marginally firmer.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,620 and up +1.6% since this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%. There seems to be an outflow rush underway from some key ETFs.

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

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108 Comments

by Harvey W | 21st Mar 24, 7:28am 1710959284

We need 3 rate cuts this year in NZ too, will we get them?

by Noncents | 21st Mar 24, 7:31am 1710959460

I disagree, what we need is a prolonged period of no change to give people actual time to plan and adjust.

It is the constant change that causes the issues, particularly when we go up/down at the speed we have the last 5 years.

by M0ralHazard | 21st Mar 24, 9:51am 1710967919

We have the foot hard on the brake with the OCR where it currently is. If we don't lower it soon we will grind to a halt, rather than slow down the economy just enough to get the 1-3% inflation we want

by Noncents | 21st Mar 24, 8:37am 1710963422

The halt isn't due to the current rate itself, it is due to the difference from the rate 3 years ago where we clearly went way to low.

by M0ralHazard | 21st Mar 24, 9:45am 1710967515

That may be true, but keeping it at the current rate will still stall the economy.

by Averageman | 21st Mar 24, 9:48am 1710967719

And clean out the unproductive and the over leveraged unsupported by income.

by Noncents | 21st Mar 24, 9:58am 1710968304

The economy stalled years ago, we have been using the low rates as a defib, but it hasn't restarted anything - it just confirmed what we all suspect.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Mar 24, 12:25pm 1710977113

"The halt isn't due to the current rate itself, it is due to the difference from the rate 3 years ago where we clearly went way to low."

Sorry. This is wrong.

Mortgage interest rates (thanks to the OCR) haven't been this high since 2009. That's about 15 years!

And as I've pointed out before - albeit the degree is a subject of some some argument - central bank actions ensured the GFC was far worse than it should have been. (And they're doing the same now - especially in NZ!)

Interest.co.nz provides some great graphs on many subject. I suggest you consult them before posting half-baked assertions.

OCR graph here: https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/interest-rates/ocr

by Noncents | 21st Mar 24, 2:55pm 1710986137

Um, have you looked at the graph? it 100% shows exactly what I said.

Record low 3 years ago, rapid increase. In fact biggest, fastest increase in over 20 years.

In 2019 the OCR was 1.75%. Over 12 months it was dropped by 85% (1.25bp). We have now raised OCR by 2,100% in about 18 months (5.25 bp)

While the basis point change may seem minor (particularly on the way down), the actual movement is massive - you cannot run an economy with those sort of changes in that sort of timeframe.

So I stand solidly behind my original statement "It is the constant change that causes the issues, particularly when we go up/down at the speed we have the last 5 years."

by Noncents | 21st Mar 24, 3:03pm 1710986624

Should also add, my statement also holds true with what you said re GFC, we dropped too hard, too fast.

by Solid_Granite | 21st Mar 24, 8:42am 1710963775

That doesn’t make sense. Inflation is not an economy speedometer.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Mar 24, 12:27pm 1710977249

"That doesn’t make sense. Inflation is not an economy speedometer."

They didn't say it was. Only that the OCR is like an accelerator and a brake.

by RCD | 21st Mar 24, 10:51am 1710971475

I don't regularly go down to the local (big) courier hub warehouse in Auckland, but every time i did over the last 10 years there was always a big stack of goods ready to go somewhere and trucks and people all over the place.

Yesterday i wandered in with my one parcel and the shelves were empty, my parcel was very lonely, there no goods at all on, or being loaded or unloaded from trucks, there were no people moving stuff around, there was one very bored office lady at her desk in a big empty room.

What does that tell you about the pace of business

by mark_a | 21st Mar 24, 8:37pm 1711006663

Its slower than it was?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Mar 24, 8:11am 1710961909

Guaranteed.

The GDP figures today will confirm this. Even if by some miracle GDP is positive it will be so anaemic that no amount of spin about HFL or 'sticky' inflation will stop the inevitable.

The OCR - after 3 cuts of 0.25% - will still be contractionary at 4.75% with mortgage rates at 6.75%. (Assuming a 2% bank margin, and the inevitable and extremely slow passing on of OCR cuts that banks do to maximise profits. Sure, some people will get better than 6.75% but only if they negotiate them, or are new borrowers, and aren't fooled by bank speak about how risky their mortgage is due to high unemployment.)

by Pragmatist | 21st Mar 24, 10:02am 1710968567

Yep, Everything i'm hearing through work is saying the same thing. The business next to use has let a 1/3 of his workers go, and is on the verge of closing his business down and retiring due to low orders and a significant lease increase. Reps from some of our suppliers are out trying to poach customers, and lead times have dropped from 10 days to 4 for Laser cutting.

by Flying high | 21st Mar 24, 10:35am 1710970526

Its good when you go into a business to order a service and they do it same day or within a few hours... "we can do yours next"

Its fitting you between bigger jobs though as you can see they're still busy

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Mar 24, 12:30pm 1710977452

Best laugh I've had today.

by KH | 21st Mar 24, 9:27am 1710966442

Low interest rates incentivises borrowing based activity. Higher interest rates encourage ownership and real investment.

Borrowing as your core tool ends badly.

by Averageman | 21st Mar 24, 9:45am 1710967553

Agreed. Capital needs a cost to ensure it is used wisely and assets are price correctly. Enabling the junkie like property gamblers with ever cheaper debt is the real problem. Yes some of those strung out on debt will suffer a cold turkey period.

Property developers are the most visible addicts, as only a few actually have their own money. Du Val group anyone...

by mark_a | 21st Mar 24, 8:38pm 1711006725

No Val more likely…..

by TronMVP | 21st Mar 24, 9:49am 1710967786

High interest rates just encourage people to save their money in term deposits, not real investment.

High interest rates have brought about zero growth of GDP, and negative growth of GDP per capita.

Interesting to see what is announced in an hour's time.

by kiwikidsnz | 21st Mar 24, 10:16am 1710969381

..."negative growth of GDP per capita."

More the result of 100000+ pa low skilled immigration

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Mar 24, 10:43am 1710971031

It is an important societal advancement we've made - to account in per-head terms.

Changes the narrative, somewhat more than somewhat.

by TronMVP | 21st Mar 24, 12:22pm 1710976959

@kiwikidsnz where do you get your stats for the 100,000 being "low skilled"? And are you assuming that immigrants spend less than those already here?

by KH | 21st Mar 24, 10:26am 1710970004

@TronMVP. Or - high interest rates cause you to operate your business on a basis of ownership rather than debt.

by TronMVP | 21st Mar 24, 12:19pm 1710976778

Cause or encourage?

Can you give an example to prove your point, please?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Mar 24, 12:33pm 1710977595

"Higher interest rates encourage ownership and real investment."

Seriously? According to whom?

(Don't bother trying to answer that. You'll get slaughtered. lol)

by Jonny.Foe | 21st Mar 24, 7:48am 1710960508

Just a reminder that when private debt is 145% of GDP, the econony can't run for long with the OCR at 5.5% - there is no 'getting used to it'.

Think about it - average yields on loans are around 7%, so we have about 10% of GDP ($40bn) transferring from debtors to savers / bank shareholders (in broadly equal measure) per annum. That's 25% of *total wages* being given to people with low / zero propensity to spend!

My April 24 first cut prediction looks optimistic now given that RBNZ is clearly just waiting for the Fed and pretending to have an independent policy. Good job the Govt have woken up to the threat of major recession and are prepared to fire the big fiscal guns... Oh, wait.

by Boomtown | 21st Mar 24, 9:38am 1710967118

.."given that RBNZ is clearly just waiting for the Fed and pretending to have an independent policy"

Yip

Reality is it all comes down to holding the value of the kiwi peso up so we dont import even more inflation

small players like NZ must be squeezed so the US can party on a little longer

by nktokyo | 21st Mar 24, 7:50am 1710960627

Just saw somewhere that building consents are way low in Tauranga too. That's a lot of industries all in trouble at once and they won't be buying new clothes or dinners out.

I think those here saying we need interest rates to stay high forever and punish ze home owners don't have to make payroll every other week.

It's not a matter of if now, it's when, and no temporary cost of freight increase is going to change a thing.

by Blackbeard | 21st Mar 24, 7:59am 1710961154

I think everyone on here who want OCR cuts have vested interests in the RE industry.

by IT GUY | 21st Mar 24, 8:03am 1710961433

Many are so far underwater even a 5.85% mortgage will break them

by Blackbeard | 21st Mar 24, 8:11am 1710961875

https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/350220152/investors-have-top-rent-payment…

by KH | 21st Mar 24, 9:34am 1710966859

It's often denied that capital gain was the intention of recent years for many, but not all, landlords.

But what else could negative cashflow, interest only activity be?

by Averageman | 21st Mar 24, 9:52am 1710967975

Exactly. The rush to the exit when the brightline is shortened to two years will underline this. Rinsing personal income tax before ringfencing was implemented was also a factor.

by RickStrauss | 21st Mar 24, 12:03pm 1710975836

This current govt and its policy changes... basically just looting for landlords.

by Baywatch | 21st Mar 24, 8:09am 1710961763

Major recession or OCR cut...I know what I prefer.

by Blackbeard | 21st Mar 24, 8:25am 1710962720

Maybe a recession is what we need. Think of it as a reset, a reboot, a flush of the toilet.

by Baywatch | 21st Mar 24, 8:34am 1710963255

Yes I'm sure the top 10% in the country will drink to that..(can scoop up some deals again from the great unwashed) - que rinse and repeat.

I'm with 3 Vege...

by Yvil | 21st Mar 24, 8:59am 1710964785

Cheers 🥂

by Baywatch | 21st Mar 24, 10:02am 1710968550

What did you do in the end with your $900k tax free profit Yvil a few years back...imagine the wealth if you had purchased BTC? (You could have brought a few more motels to add to the empire)

by Yvil | 21st Mar 24, 9:48am 1710967714

"imagine the wealth if you had brought BTC?"

My bad, I wasn't aware I could bring BTC, I thought it had to be bought, at quite an expensive price!

by Baywatch | 21st Mar 24, 10:01am 1710968485

..oh well back to paying the cleaners ..sorry to interrupt you hard at work

by Yvil | 21st Mar 24, 12:02pm 1710975732

I see you edited your post to change it to "purchased BTC". Yet you haven't learned the lesson, since you posted: "You could have brought a few more motels"

"Brought" is the past tense of "bring"

"Bought" is the past tense of "buy", and the verb you're wanting to use

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Mar 24, 8:20am 1710962447

"I think everyone on here who want OCR cuts have vested interests in the RE industry."

You'd be way wrong there Blackbeard!

My biggest concern is for the 000's of businesses that make up NZ Inc. The RE industry is but a tiny part of that when measured from an actual productive point of view!

by rastus1 | 21st Mar 24, 8:47am 1710964064

Staggers me that people think the OCR rate is the cause and thus the cure.

NZ is in the s###t. Twiddling with the OCR won't change b all.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Mar 24, 12:51pm 1710978699

"Twiddling with the OCR won't change b all."

Sorry, you're wrong. All the economic theory I've learned over 30+ years confirms this. (If the OCR is cut, banks will charge less interest. I.e. many people, especially the younger, will have more cash left over after each mortgage payment. Most will spend it, thereby picking up the economy. Sure, savers will get less - but they're not spending so businesses can't get the sales from them.)

It will change things. But so would an overhaul of our tax system to reward real investment (where new stuff is created).

Hey! Here's an idea ... Why not do both?

by Jonny.Foe | 21st Mar 24, 9:12am 1710965534

I have a vested interest in people having jobs, and linked to that, the country not self-destructing in a cesspit of inequality, crime, mental illness, and misery.

by interesting1234 | 21st Mar 24, 9:31am 1710966717

But what about SME's struggling under the weight of their interest payments for business loans to stay afloat also? More likely most are as you say, but there are other reasons to consider.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Mar 24, 8:27am 1710962859

"Britain's inflation rate dropped to 3.4% in February ..."

One notes that their government raised taxes on the middle and above in the 'inflation busting' budget a couple of years back while their central bank also raised rates. A double-pronged attack. This is how it should be done.

Another way to look at why their inflation rate has fallen faster then NZ's is that tax increases have a much more immediate effect and they can more easily target those who are most likely to 'bid up the price' of products. (No need to add that our new government is doing the reverse in that the higher income earners will have much larger tax cuts than those at the bottom.)

by RickStrauss | 21st Mar 24, 9:31am 1710966675

Indeed, as you note at the end. The previous govt did raise taxes on under-taxed property speculators, but entitlement mentality is seeing that being undone.

by Grattaway | 21st Mar 24, 12:13pm 1710976405

I would say its to late for a tax raise to be effective now as a policy tool

and falling tax revenue may actually prolong the current deficit spend which could be a positive influence if we get some infrastructure built to support future growth/productivity improvements

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Mar 24, 12:41pm 1710978068

"I would say its to late for a tax raise to be effective now as a policy tool"

Yup. Way, way too late.

Government should have moved (as UK's did) once the RBNZ announced they were on the inflation war path. (Another reason why I didn't vote for L. That said, this current lot are no better and are making things worse!)

We shouldn't tolerate a Minister of Finance that doesn't have an either an economics degree and/or a solid and demonstrable history of understanding economic cycles.

by Audaxes | 21st Mar 24, 8:02am 1710961375

Oil prices are lower today at just on US$81/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on at US$85/bbl. Both are -US$1.50 lower than this time yesterday.

Despite even more significant production cuts from OPEC well into 2024, oil prices have remained generally stable. To help understand why, we need to revisit the dynamics of the 2008 oil crisis which will give us insights into the 2024 world beyond crude. Link

by IT GUY | 21st Mar 24, 8:15am 1710962110

Chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said, despite the increase, yields were low by historical standards and rental property offered less income than other investments, such as term deposits.

"In a nutshell, it remains tricky to get the sums to stack for 'Mum and Dad' investors at present."

That could drive rent increases, he said.

Or prices are too high,,,, Fixed it for you …,

by rastus1 | 21st Mar 24, 8:52am 1710964333

Time to invest in a bunk bed manufacturer?

by IT GUY | 21st Mar 24, 8:57am 1710964621

The RE industry is waking up to the fact that prices are unsustainably high, based on cold hard dollars , sense, cashflows....

Rents normally increase by 3% a year but are running 6%.... Higher for long enough to stop this I suggest, then the prices fall to get yields back to long run averages....

Reversion to the mean anyone.

by JustAnOpinion | 21st Mar 24, 9:03am 1710965006

We are already being clear with our Property management team that this is something to look out for. 2 beds for kids is one thing but 4 beds for 4 adults in a room sized for a queen sized bed is the issue. Floor weight over spec and a single toilet for 8 people....

by Averageman | 21st Mar 24, 9:56am 1710968204

If only rent and prices were not so out of balance with simply existing in NZ. Add in wave after wave of immigrants that no one voted for.

by rastus1 | 21st Mar 24, 10:47am 1710971249

I bet the Councils never factored in that you don't need extra houses built to overload infrastructure.

Double the amount of people in a house, convert the garage and throw up a sleep out and you have the equivalent of another 3+ equivalent houses all drawing on the infrastructure. Apply that to even half the homes on one street and you have real problems..

But immigration is great huh!

by Grattaway | 21st Mar 24, 12:16pm 1710976586

or just sleep with a friend - or two :-)

by HouseMouse | 21st Mar 24, 10:04am 1710968671

As one of the chief spruikers he would never say that!

by Three Veg | 21st Mar 24, 8:09am 1710961793

We can't aspire to have stable and normalised interest rates until debt levels are reduced.

Until that happens interest rates will continue to under/overshoot in a vain effort to fight the instability created by debt.

Ultimately debt forgiveness will need to be part of the solution, but our current society and politics aren't currently equipped to navigate this sort of approach.

by Blackbeard | 21st Mar 24, 8:20am 1710962401

Debt forgiveness (helicopter money) is inflationary. Back to the drawing board.

by Baywatch | 21st Mar 24, 8:35am 1710963318

The American economist Michael Hudson is a proponent of a debt jubilee, writing in a Washington Post op-ed that it was an alternative to a depression.^[3]^[4] Similarly, anthropologist David Graeber pointed to kings' historical use of debt jubilees during regime changes to suggest that a debt jubilee would have been an appropriate response to the 2008 financial crisis.^[5] Australian economist Steve Keen is a proponent of debt jubilee.^[6]

by Boomtown | 21st Mar 24, 9:54am 1710968067

But Debt is Wealth

And debt provides incomes

A debt jubilee is admission Capitalism is bust.

Which it is.

by Averageman | 21st Mar 24, 9:58am 1710968320

Debt supported by income with suitable yield is fine. The problem is have just had an extended period of "not that".

by Boomtown | 21st Mar 24, 11:15am 1710972949

agree

We have been can kicking

The trouble is you can't divorce financial trickery from actual resources drawdown/consumption indefinitely...

You can print money but you cant print resource bases.

And we are up now against some hard limits on "suitable" consumption ... which is going to snap the debt models

by Three Veg | 21st Mar 24, 10:53am 1710971634

Not if the debt paid down cannot be reissued, or at least at the same interest rate.

by Threecents | 21st Mar 24, 11:57am 1710975455

A debt jubilee is a ‘nice’ idea (and is apparently used in some other cultures), however the bank owners won’t consider that unless they were forced to. Using the owners of ANZ as an example – their philosophy is unlikely to consider forgiveness. I suspect Blackrock etc are so big they have more influence than governments.

From Wikipedia

The major shareholders of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group are BlackRock Inc, The Vanguard Group and Norges Bank Investment Management.^[26]

by IT GUY | 21st Mar 24, 8:53am 1710964425

There will be losses banks have and will have increasing provisions next few years

by timbob | 21st Mar 24, 8:44am 1710963858

So you are suggesting there could be a bank bailout in the future? Lets hope it's after the Depositor Compensation Scheme comes in in 2025, make sure you don't have over 100k in a bank account. The government is more likely to extend, pretend and play down inflation, let it run, drop the OCR at the same time as the US moves, to protect our currency from more imported inflation and incomes will rise to increase debt paying ability.

by cornercafe | 21st Mar 24, 8:42am 1710963754

"US Fed stays on track for 2024 rate cuts"

Seems like the news headlines more often focus on the dot plots - but how often have the US Fed's predictions on inflation and rates been correct in the last few years?

Jerome Powell - 20 March, 2024;

“Inflation is still too high. Ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. We are fully commited to returning inflation to our 2% goal.”

"And keeping our longer term inflation expectations well anchored"

"We did mark up our growth forecasts"

"The inflation data came in a little bit higher"

by Yvil | 21st Mar 24, 8:50am 1710964210

So the 7 countries at the top of the happiness chart are Nordic countries where the weather is very cold for the majority of the year, and where there is about 4 hours of daylight in winter, or Israel, Israel !!!

No thanks.

by mark_a | 21st Mar 24, 9:04am 1710965053

Will be an assessment by a bunch of 'wokers'. :-)

by Baywatch | 21st Mar 24, 9:27am 1710966447

The real reason..and so glad the new Government has us back on the right track ..I trust them !

To begin, one of the leading contributions to the happiness of Nordic countries is the high level of trust between citizens, which leads to social cohesion. This so-called social cohesion leads to an increased level of trust, which can make living in a community a more pleasant experience

by interesting1234 | 21st Mar 24, 9:38am 1710967088

More trust, knowing your neighbours, more community and less individualism, well run publicly funded services such as tertiary education, public transport in cities, warmer houses despite a colder climate. High taxation yes, but utilization of said taxes in a very efficient and egalitarian way giving greater support for government.

by Baywatch | 21st Mar 24, 9:46am 1710967605

The complete opposite of what many commentator's on this sight strive for...way to "woke"

by HouseMouse | 21st Mar 24, 10:06am 1710968793

Yep it’s not rocket science

by agnostium | 21st Mar 24, 11:26am 1710973590

It's actually much harder than rocket science. Rocket science is complicated. Engineering social cohesion is complex. There is also lots and lots of money to be made by reducing social cohesion.

by singautim | 21st Mar 24, 10:11am 1710969103

Social cohesion via a unique language that isn't taught to foreigners. Immigrants who are not fast and fluent language learners will feel alienated.

The NZ solution is Te Reo. Of course it would be difficult to get all Kiwis fluent and it would sabotage immigration of skilled engineers and doctors. But it doesn't have to be universal; just used in the places that discourage low wage immigrants. Govt publications, road signs, etc. We will need newspapers and TV reporters who will say "Hello, welcome to Auckland, New Zealand" without a single English word. That will flummox foreigners and leave us happy.

by Yvil | 21st Mar 24, 11:56am 1710975394

"The NZ solution is Te Reo" 😂🤣😂

by SilverSnake | 21st Mar 24, 9:46am 1710967585

Unlike NZ, Europeans actually know how to make cold winters still enjoyable. Cosy warm homes and a lot of fun winter festivals make a huge difference, and I'd much rather a snowy and otherwise dry -15 degrees than a 5 degree damp southerly gale in Wellington.

by Yvil | 21st Mar 24, 9:51am 1710967890

True, I certainly miss the Swiss ski resorts, Zermatt, Verbier, Les Portes du Soleil etc...

by TommyYank-old | 21st Mar 24, 2:37pm 1710985044

Could be because there Nordic population has been much more static than the NZ population. There immigration has been a trifling of what NZ has experienced since 2000, whereas NZ's population has increased by nearly 40%. They have industry to produce Productivity versus People for GNP growth.

by TommyYank-old | 21st Mar 24, 2:53pm 1710986006

by Flying high | 21st Mar 24, 9:26am 1710966407

DJIA is flying high, today at least

by earnedincome | 21st Mar 24, 9:48am 1710967725

No rail link starting to look like a distinct possibility. Who could've seen this coming (or intended it to happen)?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/briefing-floats-possibility-of-kiwirail-exiting-cook-strait-interislander-ferry-service/BYGSCYNZOZEYDLLUWP4VTJDJ3I/

by Nzdan | 21st Mar 24, 10:59am 1710971966

Maybe StraitNZ are a National party donor. They operate the Blue Bridge ferry (as the article states) but also have a huge fleet of linehaul trucks.

Potentially a huge opportunity for StraitNZ.

by Baywatch | 21st Mar 24, 11:12am 1710972742

We should get P&O involved ..pay staff under the minimum wage, 7 week shift, staff cannot get off..no problem and the profits flow back to Dubai

by earnedincome | 21st Mar 24, 11:39am 1710974354

I think it's broader than that and involves pandering to the trucking lobby.

Without an inter-island rail link the rest of the rail network also becomes much less attractive as a freight option. It may well be the beginning of a huge loss of existing rail infrastructure.

by Grattaway | 21st Mar 24, 12:25pm 1710977130

well its already a bit of a loss making dog with the interisland link - so not saying we should not have the link but definitely time for a reinvention of how its going to be operated

by RickStrauss | 21st Mar 24, 2:18pm 1710983900

We could always reduce subsidising of road transport too though.

by Threecents | 21st Mar 24, 12:20pm 1710976818

Take dodgy weather and dodgy ships out of the equation. Bring on the tunnel boring machines. Shane Jones - go south young man with your infrastructure fund.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/101228096/is-it-time-to-tunnel-across-the-cook-strait

...

"But what about the earthquake risk?" some would say. The Seikan Tunnel linking Hokkaido and Honshu islands in Japan sits in an area prone to earthquakes but has withstood many major earthquakes unscathed. The shortest and most practical route between Wellington and Picton ferry terminals would avoid the Tinakori fault and stay west of the continental fault.

by K.W. | 21st Mar 24, 4:18pm 1710991102

Why can't containers simply be shipped from Auckland to other ports around the country? Unloading a container from a ship on to a train then on to a truck seems like double handling to me, when it could just go from ship to truck in port.

by agnostium | 21st Mar 24, 9:59am 1710968353

“I would also remind investors that market rent is pegged to tenants' income and not landlords' costs.

Sarina Gibbon, general manager at the Auckland Property Investors Association

I thought Luxon said the reinstatement of interest deductibility was to put downward pressure on rents ... Interesting

I guess Sarina Gibbon is part of the MSM making up stuff to discredit the govt...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/350220152/investors-have-top-rent-payment…

*** For KH *** my regular small dig of the current govt's policies but this time I choose something we agree on. And yes I saw the stuff article about the super rich who donate to Labour and I disagree with that too. How much money you have should not determine which policies get implemented (even if I agree with some of those policies).

by Averageman | 21st Mar 24, 10:02am 1710968525

Debt unsupported by income. Well we can all agree one one thing, these people did this to themselves. The why is subject to debate.

Don't loose your job....

by J.C. | 21st Mar 24, 10:13am 1710969205

New high for gold priced in Kiwi pesos. Flirting with $3,600. Barely an eyebrow raised at the water cooler, even though the price is up nearly 8% in a single quarter.

Fake royal pics is the hot topic at present. I need to get up to speed on this.

by Flying high | 21st Mar 24, 10:46am 1710971214

Sounds a bit of racist selection policy but the kaumatua are all happy now with their needs/wants being met

https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/nz-news/350219156/bowling-green-forever-…

by Baywatch | 21st Mar 24, 11:15am 1710972926

“The other driver has been the increasing number of kaumātua who have been using motels as alternative accommodation, that’s in no way suitable, we shouldn’t have our kaumātua or anybody in motels.”

Yvil would disagree with this project!

by agnostium | 21st Mar 24, 11:29am 1710973761

No doubt all those who were incandescent about the government allocating itself temporary powers during the Covid pandemic will be up in arms about this coalition's affront on democratic process. Or then again maybe not because it's their team who are side-stepping democracy.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/512259/the-unprecedented-power-the-…

by agnostium | 21st Mar 24, 11:36am 1710974166

More lies from Luxon, he really is the worse National leader ever.

Luxon told Morning Report in early December that the remaining tobacco retailers "will become a massive magnet for crime and we also believe that it will drive more of the market into the black market as well".

And yet he had been given evidence that the opposite was true:

As a result of the entire suite of laws coming into place, "dairies and other small businesses may be less subjected to robberies"

Of course this is just the bias MSM reporting facts ...

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/512253/pm-christopher-luxon-s-tobac…

KH** I'm still waiting for you to give me something that the coalition has done to support.

by Grattaway | 21st Mar 24, 12:35pm 1710977723

I am not supporting Luxon's statements but "may be less subjected to" is hardly empirical evidence based

and there is plenty of global evidence that shows that prohibition increases blackmarkets and associated smuggling with all the negative associations

by agnostium | 21st Mar 24, 2:50pm 1710985826

Read the regulatory impact statement, they looked at international evidence.

It doesn't even matter what the evidence says to be fair this was about paying back their donors.

by singautim | 21st Mar 24, 12:55pm 1710978942

He didn't get my vote and is very unlikely to ever get it but it is far too early to claim he is the worst ever National leader. Consider some of the previous leaders.

by agnostium | 21st Mar 24, 2:48pm 1710985737

Sorry I meant in living memory. I'd take Judith Collins over Luxon at this rate

by dollar_bill | 21st Mar 24, 1:01pm 1710979291

Someone raised this "evidence" with him and he said something like, "I reckon the evidence is not correct. I reckon, I am." I mean, the guy has his firmly held "beliefs" so facts don't really matter to him. He and Winnie are the reckon twins (or should that be wreckin' twins) - at least Seymour pays lip service to "evidence"