A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; SBS Bank's mortgage rate cut grabs attention, Fitch sees local big banks positively, Aussie business bankruptcies jump, swaps stable, NZD devalues, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has cut some fixed home loan rates very sharply. Their three year fixed rate is now 5.99%. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nothing here today.

'RESILIENT & 'STABLE'
Ratings agency Fitch says they expect New Zealand’s GDP growth to remain subdued during 2024 and joblessness to rise as a result, although the unemployment rate should remain resilient. As a result, they judge that the standalone credit profiles of New Zealand's four largest banks - ANZ, ASB, Bank of New Zealand and Westpac (all rated A+/Stable/a) – continue to be resilient amid this challenging economic backdrop. This reflects those banks’ stable financial profiles, underpinned by their entrenched market positions, which allows them to operate simple business models, they said.

RISING STRESS
In Australia, ASIC released data that showed 1131 businesses went bust in March, the most since they started collecting these statistics in 1999. The latest March data is up from 830 in March 2023, and just 439 nationwide in March 2021.

CPI STAYS ABOVE 2%, BUT EASES MARGINALLY
Japan's March inflation rate eased to 2.7% from 2.8% in February. This was what markets were expecting. Their core rate, excluding food and energy, dipped to 2.6% and a shift lower by a bit more than was expected.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed again today, perhaps on the soft side. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 5.64%, a level it has hovered around for 30+ days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is back down -7 bps at 4.29%. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 2.27% and an all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down another -7 bps to 4.90% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.93% and up a minor +1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 4.55%. Their 2yr is holding at 4.92%, so the curve is now -37 bps and -3 bps more inverted.

EQUITIES SIGNAL "BUY THE DIPS" (!!?!!)
The NZX50 is heading to a -0.9% retreat near the close of trading which will mean it has lost -1.6% for the week. But that is tame compared to the ASX200 which is down -1.3% in early afternoon trade and heading for a -3.1% weekly rout. Tokyo has opened its Friday trade down -3.1% and heading for a more than -5% drop for the week. Hong Kong opened today down -1.3% and if that holds it will be down -2.0%. Shanghai is down -0.4% at its open but they may end the week higher. Singapore opened down -0.7%. All this comes after Wall Street closed its Thursday session with the S&P500 down -0.2% building its four-day retreat to -3.1%. Tomorrow's trading could get ugly.

OIL GIVES UP RECENT FALLS
Oil prices have risen +US$1.50 to just on US$84/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$88.50/bbl. An Israeli retaliation on Iran directly today is shifting this dial. These levels only take us back to week-ago levels however.

GOLD FIRMS WITHIN RECENT RANGE
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$12 from yesterday, now at US$2385/oz.

NZD DEVALUES
The Kiwi dollar has retreated from this time yesterday to 58.7 USc and down -½c. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are down more than -¼c at 55.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.6 and down a bit more than -30 bps.

BITCOIN FALLS UNDER US$60,000 THEN RECOVERS
The bitcoin price has fallen today from this time yesterday, now down to US$61,844 and a minor -0.3% net retreat. But in between it got down as low as US$59,665 before recovering. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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