Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nothing here today.
AN OPTIMISTIC BUNCH
Grant Thornton New Zealand’s latest survey of over 200 business leaders and decision makers has revealed "a significant uptick in optimism" for the coming year despite many toughing it out in current economic conditions. Asked about optimism around economic conditions over the next 12 months, survey participants cited being very optimistic (2%), and slightly optimistic (51%) compared to 4% and 32% respectively this time last year. This is despite a tough year where many businesses surveyed have struggled to grow revenue. In 2023, 50% of survey respondents had grown revenue by more than 5% during the previous 12 months, compared to just 40% this year..
RAPID DESCENT
Air NZ says that since its February profit guidance of $200-240 mlm, they have seen a fast softening in revenue conditions in April both domestically and on the North American market. They have revised their profit forecast for the full June 2024 year down to $40-50 mln
BANKS TOLD TO MANAGE CLIMATE RISKS TO PROTECT FINANCIAL SYSTEM RESILIENCE
The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) says banks should actively manage climate-related risks to protect the resilience of the financial system to other shocks. The comments come as the RBNZ issues a Bulletin article on its 2023 climate stress test results. The RBNZ says its 'Too Little Too Late' scenario didn't threaten bank solvency, as the big five banks stress tested were able to maintain their capital ratios. However, it did highlight climate-related risks have the potential to significantly reduce bank profitability, raise risk-weighted assets and reduce shareholders’ returns over the medium to long term, the RBNZ says. This means "climate related risks need to be actively managed to protect the resilience of the system to other shocks."
LEAVING MONEY IN
To get deals done, sellers of SMEs are increasingly having to finance part of the transaction themselves, according to SME business brokerage ABC Sales. They say it used to only be a component in one out of every 100 deals they did, but now it is a factor in close to 10% of their business sales, particularly those involving a younger demographic of buyer.
ON HOLD
The People's Bank of China left benchmark lending rates unchanged at the April fixing, in line with market expectations. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was maintained at 3.45%. Meanwhile, the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was retained at 3.95% for the second straight month.
CHOCOLATE UPDATE
Cocoa prices leapt up through an all-time record US$5000/tonne in early February. Three weeks later they hit US$6000/tonne. Two weeks after that it was US$7000/tonne. US$8000/tonne came just a few days later. Then an accelerated surge began in earnest, hitting US$10,000 at the end of the first week of April. Today? well this price has reached US$12,218/tonne. Where to from here? As hard as it is on chocolate consumers, I hope the West African farmers are getting some long-delayed rewards.
CREDIT CARDS SUGGEST DEBT PROBLEMS MIGHT BE RETURNING
The latest data on credit card transaction and balances is very lackluster. The only two points worth noting are that transactions on credit cards issued overseas and used here are down -8.7% from March a year ago. And that the proportion of our credit card debt that incurs interest is now up to 53.9%, a one-month rise from 53.0% in January to its highest level in two years.
SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be a little higher today, perhaps +5 to +10 bps. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 5.65%, a level it has hovered around for more than 30 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.37%. The China 10 year bond rate has dipped to 2.26% and a new all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up + bps to 4.99% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.90% and actually -3 bps lower. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps to 4.66%. Their 2yr is firm at 5.00%, so the curve is now -34 bps and less inverted.
SOME EQUITIES HOT, SOME NOT
The NZX50 is finding it tough to muster any enthusiasm today but at least prices are firmish, up +0.2% in late trade. Air NZ is actually up +0.9%. The ASX200 however is up a full +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Monday trade up +0.7%. Hong Kong is up a very impressive +2.4%. Shanghai is unchanged at their open however. Singapore is impressing, up +1.6%. The S&P500 futures are signaling that Wall Street will open tomorrow up just a modest +0.3%.
OIL SLIPS FURTHER
Easing Middle East tensions have seen the oil price ease lower in early trade this week. They have slipped -50 USc to just US$81.50/bbl in the US, to US$86/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD SLIPS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$16 from this morning, now at US$2375/oz.
NZD SORT OF RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar has risen from this morning, now at 59.2 USc and up +40 bps. Against the Aussie we are up very slightly at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 55.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 69.1 and up +30 bps to where it was Thursday..
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price has meandered today from this morning, now at US$64,743 and slipping a minor -0.2% since then. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been a very modest +/-1.1%.
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