Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None here today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Cooperative Bank trimmed -5 bps from its 6 month TD. Update: TSB has trimmed all its TD offers for terms 5 months to 5 years.
A CONCRETE SLOWDOWN
In the March 2024 quarter, the volume of ready-mixed concrete produced was 867,854 m3, down -12% compared with the March 2023 quarter. And ignoring the one pandemic quarter when building stopped (813,000 m3), this is the lowest level for any quarter since March 2014. And don't forget, this production peaked in December 2021 at 1,290,000 m3. The building slowdown is here for real. It was especially grim in Wellington (down -38% from its peak).
YIELDS FALL IN NZGB TENDER, MOSTLY
There were 81 bids worth just over $1 bln for the $500 mln of NZGBs tendered today in three tranches. 12 bids won the $250 mln May 2030 tranche, at 4.59% yield and this was notable because that is down from 4.73% three weeks ago. The yield also fell for the May 2032 $225 mln, down from 4.82% to today's 4.66%. But the yield rose on the small $25 mln May 2041 offer, up to 5.03% from the six successful bids. It was up from 4.83% at the prior equivalent event two months ago.
IS $1 BLN ENOUGH?
Treasury says depositor compensation scheme fund to build up over 20 years, covering 0.8% of protected deposits and top $1 bln when that is matured.
NO SURPRISE
Rabobank has joined the pack, setting $8.40/kgMS as its 2024/25 initial farmgate milk payout estimate. That is the same level Westpac has already estimated, and between ANZ's $8.50 and ASB's $8.30/kgMS. More here.
NOT EVEN AN AFTERTHOUGHT
For the March 2024 quarter, ASB's parent, CBA, said profits fell -3% as higher interest rates saw late loan repayments rise. CBA is so big, ASB's contribution to all this didn't rate a mention. CBA's New Zealand operation is the smallest share of any of the large Aussie banks.
QUICK RISE
Fonterra said it has appointed Andrew Murray as its CFO, replacing Simon Till who was holding the position since Marc Rivers departed. Murry joined Fonterra in February 2023 as Commercial Director for Fonterra’s Global Markets business (from Simplot Australia), and will step into the Chief Financial Officer role on 1 August 2024.
FOREWARNED
Transpower has issued a warning that tomorrow morning will be very cold nationwide and there will be unusually high load on the electricity system. Brace for the unexpected.
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be higher across the curve. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63%, a level it has hovered around for more than 70 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +9 bps from yesterday on global pressures, now at 4.41%. The China 10 year bond rate has recovered +9 bps at 2.32%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +11 bps to 4.81% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.72% and back up +5 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps from yesterday's close at 4.47%. Their 2yr is now at 4.84%, so the curve is deeper at -37 bps inverted.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.7% near is close today. The ASX is down -0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.5% in morning trade. Hong Kong is up +1.1% at their Thursday open; Shanghai is up +0.8%. Singapore has opened down -0.2%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with the S&P500 unchanged.
OIL FIRMS
The oil price is +US$1.50 higher today from this time yesterday, at just over US$79/bbl in the US, while now up +US$1 at just over US$83.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5 from this time yesterday, now just on US$2312/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has risen +20 bps from this time yesterday to just under 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmer at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also firmer at 55.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now about 69.4, and basically little-changed.
BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price has slipped to US$61,698 and another -1.6% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest again at +/- 1.7%.
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