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US consumer sentiment rose; perceptions of inflation stay elevated; markets twist their view of UST auctions; Canadian PPI up; milk powder prices mixed; UST 10yr 4.54%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 61.5 USc; TWI-5 = 70.7

Economy / news
US consumer sentiment rose; perceptions of inflation stay elevated; markets twist their view of UST auctions; Canadian PPI up; milk powder prices mixed; UST 10yr 4.54%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 61.5 USc; TWI-5 = 70.7

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news global markets are putting upward pressure on interest rates and that is spilling over to our local markets.

In the US, and somewhat unexpectedly, consumer confidence rose in May in the latest Conference Board survey. This mirrors the University of Michigan version, although analysts were expecting this latest one to show a retreat. The rise was because those surveyed had a brighter perception of the future. But, equally significantly, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy. Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up from 5.3% to 5.4%. The last time actual inflation was reported, for April, it was running at 3.4% with food at 2.2%. So perception and reality are a bit disjoined at present.

But the key point is, consumer perceptions of inflation are high, and markets expect the US Fed to hold the line until a more realistic view is adopted in these perception surveys. In fact, overnight an influential regional Fed boss said he wants to see ‘many more months’ of positive inflation data before a rate cut. These were comments that moved markets.

In another very well supported US Treasury bond auction, this one for the five year maturity, the median yield fell to 4.48% pa from the prior event's 4.59%. It seems financial markets are persuaded that inflation is decreasing now and higher yields are not required. It is only consumers who remain to be convinced.

But the US Treasury two year bond auction was considered 'soft' by market observers despite its even better support levels. Median yields were unchanged at 4.85%. It is had to understand the market sentiment on this but secondary market yields are now up to 4.98% immediately after the formal auction, so something is going on.

Markets thought demand for both issues were 'weak' but if you look at the actual results, they really aren't. "Little-changed" is the best conclusion you could come to.

Canadian producer prices were up a chunky level in April from March, the third consecutive month-on-month rise, and they are now up +1.4% from a year ago. That is their first year-on-year rise since September last year and the most since the beginning of 2023. Still, these rising levels remain low and are no inflationary threat there.

In China, two first-tier cities are cutting home loan rates to spur housing demand. Shanghai and Shenzhen both made these moves.

The overnight GDT Pulse milk powder auction brought mixed results for the 1652 tonnes of product offered by Fonterra. SMP slipped -1.1% from last week's full auction event but WMP rose +0.4%.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.54% and up a sharp +8 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is less at -44 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also less at -64 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is much less at -84 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.39% and up +7 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.88%.

Wall Street has returned from its log weekend holiday, and the push back in the rate-cut expectations is weighing on them with teh S&P500 down -0.4% in late Tuesday trade. Overnight European markets were all down, about -0.7% on average. Yesterday Tokyo ended down a minor -0.1%. Hong Kong was unchanged, but Shanghai retreated -0.5%. Singapore rose +0.4%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session down -0.3% while the NZX50 was down -0.6% at the end.

The price of gold will start today up +US$4 from yesterday at US$2358/oz.

Oil prices are up another +US$1 at just over US$79.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now over US$83.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today little-changed from yesterday at just under 61.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are softish at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also marginally softer at 56.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still at 70.7.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,809 back down -3.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.

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84 Comments

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-demand/week-on-demand/

Ashley's not happy...NZME/One Roof/Hosk spruikers on zb this morn between 06:30-06:45.

AC.."single most stupid move the RB has ever made"..."prediction,this will be reversed within 3 years"..."will completely screw up the property market"

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Just shows that RBNZ are probably right on the mark....   Housing needs to be affordable.

 

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54

By 'Screw up the property market' ..he means making houses affordable for the majority, increasing investment in productive business, improving wellness and mental health, encouraging smart kids to stay in nz and take useful jobs etc...

... but obviously reducing the fat profits of a minority ( REAs, mortgage brokers, private landlords and banks). And reducing the probability of dangerous asset bubbles.

Totally screwed. 

 

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37

He knows at current prices, yields and deductions allowed that the only way a residential investor can hope to make money is tax free capital gain....     DTI is like sunlight to the vampires....

Landlords don't do it as a social service, what do they do it for?   (Hint: at these levels they are scratching their heads....)

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Yeah - BUT. If there were cheaper houses and less capital gains is it possible we wouldnt need all these landlords anyway.

people would buy instead of rent. 

At present the issue is landlords buying for capital gain - driving up prices so people cant afford to buy and have to rent.

 

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Forget CPI RBNZ need to use AI sentiment analysis to create a spruiker sentiment index (SSI) and keep it between 90-100%.

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AC knows what he's talking about. He's never wrong. /sarc

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11

I don't normally listen to the Hosk on account of his twatness but I listened to this segment with Ashley

1.- So the Hosk's whole show is sponsored by Bayley's?????

2 - Ashley offers his statement that interest rates have peaked and house prices falls have stopped - Not challenged in any way by the Hosk, supposedly a dogged interviewer.

3 - AC asserts that DTI are terrible with no supporting explanation or discussion and the Hosk just agrees. No discussion on why they are terrible.

I think this reveals more about the people who listen to the Hosk than anything else. 

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Probably the same audience that comment on Herald articles (you have to be a paid subscriber and it's also quite moderated). 

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I think this reveals more about the people who listen to the Hosk than anything else. 

The Hosk is underrated IMO. He is remarkedly well informed (or makes the effort to be informed) about certain issues. In terms of his commercial value to NZ media and advertisers, I think he's one of the best. If not the best.  

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3

"In terms of his commercial value to NZ media and advertisers, I think he's one of the best"

Wouldn't disagree on this point but then so is Coca cola and that isn't exactly good. 

"He is remarkedly well informed (or makes the effort to be informed) about certain issues."

From my limited exposure to the Hosk, and it's normally only topics that I am reasonably well informed, I would say he is not informed at all. That doesn't stop him presenting his case as if he were well informed. 

Like I said his show reveals more about his listeners than anything else. 

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14

You could say the same about Dame Jacinda Kate Laurell Ardern GNZM. Incidentally, she didn't feel comfortable about being an interviewee in front of the Hosk as she couldn't control the narrative. 

 

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OK mate, she's not in power anymore but seems like she's living rent free in your head. 

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J.C's comment was comparing the two of them. Weather she is in power or not is irrelevant, thus is your response.

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Why choose Jacinda Ardern?

We're talking about Mike Hosking.

Jacinda is a former Prime Minister the other is a radio chat show host. Maybe compare Hosking to another chat show host but just seems random. 

I find it weird how often he brings her up in particular over anybody else. 

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You find it weird because you promote the previous government and dis the current government.

It's quite odd that's about your only interest.

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I dis the current government when I disagree with what it does. I'll praise it when it does the right thing like when Bishop approved the housing intensification in Wellington over vested NIMBY interests. I'll also say the previous government's transport policy under Hopkins was a wrong-footed as Simeon's. 

I believe in playing the government in power not whinging back to previous administrations. I along with a minority of the population appear to think the government is on the wrong track. Regardless, comparing Jacinda to Mike Hosking is plain weird. 

Let's see how the budget pans out. 

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Too flip floopy for me- especially with Covid - lockdown - dont lock down - ohh my wife is sick - lock down -- 

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He's a one eyed supporter of what he supports, upbeat and exposes MSM.

 

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OT.

I taught young Micheal when he was seven. I credit myself with giving Michael is love of all things space. And yes and the space between his ears!

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Hosk's wife Kate has a son in real estate and the Hosk is heavily invested in property,so you ain't going to get any negative news about housing from big Mikey

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TA,the property addict, is at the panic stage wen he publicly realises and starts shouting that his generationally-addictive drug of choice, capital gains, is no longer on the trajectory of yester decades. His withdrawal will be hard XD

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AC was absolutely spitting tacks on the Onewoof ZB show a few weeks back.....

He is apoplectic,  that his revered property Ponzi is mid-burst and his god given right and lifelong dreams of NZ domination via the housing market is indeed under threat.
His property loaded portfolio is not doing as he has preached (one-way to the moon) to the flocking masses, now he risks having his money tables being tipped over by his once adherents, now angry, forlorn mob.

The old market is not doing as he pleases and the constantly lining of his money grubbing pockets has ceased (actually reversing fast for him) at the expense if those aspiring for home, to actually live in. 
How dare people demand lower DTIs and reasonable value for their shelter dollar, he utters!

Poor AC......this toad is one grumpy, angry boy now. 

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25

Why does anyone give AC any airtime? He has no qualifications to talk about property.

I understand that maybe they would want to interview him about his Zionist views and unequivocal support for Israel but property????? Makes no sense. 

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Why would you want to interview someone about their views on Israel? Nothing wrong with Israel, they are an ally fighting a common enemy (that hopefully they will soon eliminate). The majority support Israel, the moaners think that Hamas are the nice fairies that live in the back garden (the fringe minority). PS, In do agree with you that Ashley is a twat. Obviously  he did not do as well out of property as he made out, and most probably over leverages and will soon have only debt remaining, hence his anger.

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"Why would you want to interview someone about their views on Israel?"

Because it's fairly topical at the moment and he is one of the most renowned and vocal Zionists in New Zealand. That wasn't a pro or anti- Israel comment or position.

I was just pointing out that it made more sense to interview him about Israel than property. 

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Which 'majority' support Israel? Not the International Court of Justice, not the International Criminal Court, not the overwhelming majority of countries that have voted at the UN demanding a ceasefire, and recognising the Palestinian state. Your 'majority' is, I think, limited to former European imperial states: Britain, France, Germany; their European-majority former colonies Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; all led by the biggest European colony-turned-imperial-power America; the right wing of all their European inhabitants seeing common cause with the European colonisation of Palestine.

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Wah wah wah. Like normal. 

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Don't bite John. I wish I hadn't mentioned Israel now, my comment was about Ashley Church not Israel. 

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In my social circles there is very little support for Israel and my view of understanding their right to response after being attacked in October has proven quite unpopular. Even the media coverage seems pretty skewed against Israel.

Great news for Hamas - everyone has fallen right into their trap (including Israel). The more Palestinian civilian deaths the better for their PR campaign. While Israel would generally prefer to avoid civilian casualties, Hamas positively relishes them. 

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Hamas causes them. Bombing their own hospital was an interesting one...and I wonder how many other of their bombs and rockets have ended in the death of their own populace that they then blame on Israel. Civilian casualties are actually far lower than were reported (apparently up to 50% lower). Israel have done a great job there. Probably not far to go now. Hamas can't win from under a pile of rocks, so soon they will probably see sense and surrender. I think that is what most people don't understand. Generally in a war one side loses. Hamas has lost but won't admit it so the grinding destruction of their infrastructure continues until they do.

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Yeah, I'm finding it harder than ever to really know what's happening on the ground. But, my basic moral consideration of the conflict is basically a broader scale version of Hamas setting up a rocket position next to civilians, shooting, running and then filming the inevitable civilian casualties when Israel responds. The only bit that shows up in Western media or social media is that last bit - quite a deliberate PR strategy. 

Yes, Israel killed the civilians and they may have had other options. They shoulder some of the blame but no society is going to tolerate rocket attacks on their civilians without responding. 

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Both sides of the conflict are behaving in a disgraceful manner ... both the actual participants, and the ardent supporters themselves, at least the ones I see on social media.

Israel with its continued and tenuous claims that any criticism of its increasingly imperialist behaviour and aggressive military strategy - no matter how minor, or how valid - is rooted anti-Semitism, as well as the constant downplaying of impacts on civilians, and failure to reign in the behaviour of more extreme settlers e.g. in West Bank. 

Palestine with its continued support of Hamas, an organisation which is clearly happy to sacrifice as many civilians as needed in order to try and eek out a PR victory, and seemingly widespread popular support (or at least downplaying) of what happened on October 7th. You can go on TikTok, for example, and see accounts with people who were documenting themselves cheering in the streets of Gaza in early October, who are now wailing and shrieking on camera when the tables are turned and the guns are pointed at them.

I've seen people I used to work with, or go to school/university with, make publicly on social media such absurd claims as rape is acceptable when it's being committed as a tool of freedom fighting, or that the entirety of Hamas' attack on Israel is a CIA/Mossad-orchestrated 'false flag' where footage was made up with AI and designed to give Israel carte blanche to conquer Palestine, through to others claiming that all claims of civilian casualties wrought by Israeli bombing/military activity are made up and if you claim otherwise you are a vile anti-Semite. 

All I know is that it's far too complex for anybody to properly understand, and I truly don't see how this conflict can ever be resolved, which is a tragedy for those on the ground. 

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Then MFD your friends are quick to forget the attrocities carried out on 7th October, the parading of Israeli women who had been captured, raped, and mutilated. 000's murdered. The US invaded several countries and reduced them to rubble after 9/11 based on a "dodgy dossier" of fabricated evidence.  

Much of the death and destruction in Gaza would have been avoided if Hamas had surrendered the hostages and didn't hide in hospitals or other civilian neighbourhoods. Gaza is literally run by terrorists.

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Much of the death and destruction would have been avoided if Israel wasn't a racist religo-fascist apartheid state that displaced 700k+ Palestinians in the Nabka, with no regard to their human or property rights; and is still illegally occupying Palestinian land in contravention of 131 UN declarations. You should take some time to familiarise yourself with the experiences of Palestinians held by Israel in administrative detention with no rights to a fair trial. 

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What nonsense.

This if Israel wasn't a racist religo-fascist apartheid you are completely wrong about for a start....and your fake news gets worse from there.

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Listen to yourselves. He said, she said, blah blah blah. Instead of spouting your hatred (at the end of the day that’s what it’s all about, hate) for those you don’t side with, why don’t you come up with a solution. Oh no that’s right we’re dealing with the human race, a pack of f-wits.

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I agree. The solution is simple, surrender, give the hostages back. give up terrorism and stop firing rockets at innocent civilians (this is all for Hamas to do). They are the terrorists, that is not in dispute. If fringe loonies think that it is trendy to pretend otherwise and Hamas are the good guys. then that is on them. Remember, a lot of people thought ISIS was a good idea too. Many loons went and joined them to fight (against everyone), crazy women from the UK and elsewhere joined them only to get beaten and raped. ISIS turned out really well. They hid amongst civilians but were eventually smoked out and killed. Same will happen to Hama. Some people get sucked into the PR, some people are just plain dumb.

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That last statement is true. 

And some folk are classic examples. 

It's easy to identify bias - it needs to avoid/ignore. The further it goes, the more it has to ignore. In your case, you choose to ignore all hisroty before one little incident - a retaliative incident, when seen in the bigger perspective. 

And Israel is no ally of ours. It is an incestuous ally of the US, without which it would nor exist. And the US has been the biggest thug on the planet, since WW2. 

Truth is the best pathway - the rest just get messy. 

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Maybe not an ally in your mind buddy.....but the you are part of the minority on these things.

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Since Israel was formed many of their neighbors have had the explicit goal of destroying the nation and removing/killing all the Jews. Hamas are still following that ideology although some states have softened (e.g. Saudi and Jordan helping to defend Israel from Iran's barrage a few weeks ago).

I'm not sure that Israel playing nicely would do the trick.  

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I don't get the Israel always tell the truth and never does anything wrong crowd. Surely something must have come up that made you think that's not correct or why vague repetitive excuses keep being used when humanitarian centres get bombed. We have the ICJ and ICC saying they can find evidence that Israel is doing bad things and you can just ignore this?

There are alternative reports of the events of Oct 7, which you can lookup. Do you not notice that the 40 dead babies claim has been dropped?  I don't think it's a good place to discuss here beyond establishing that the stories kept changing. Oct 7 is not a justification to bomb hospitals, universities and refugee camps.

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Hamas live streamed themselves committing atrocities, I don't know how the alternative reports can get away from that reality. There's clearly bad actors in Israel too (possibly including the Prime Minister) and you're right it's crazy to deny any flaws. 

The challenge for Israel is how to fight an enemy that shelters in, around and under civilian infrastructure without also impact that infrastructure. There is always some level of civilian death and suffering in any war, but you could certainly rationally discuss whether certain actions were justified. The trouble is we are only really hearing one side of the story - with the media naively parroting Hamas civilian casualty numbers but skeptical of Israeli '12,000 militants killed' claims. As with any war, both numbers should be looked at critically as both have their own narratives to drive. 

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"The trouble is we are only really hearing one side of the story"

What bullshit is this... we have media repeating Israeli press statements as almost as fact. The narrative that hamas "shelters in, around and under civilian infrastructure" comes from believing official Israeli sources. When they make the excuse for attacking hospital and refugee camps the press quote spokes person soundbites almost as fact.

Bombing an active hospital or refugee camp because you "believed" there was (possibly) an enemy commander there without being able to provide their name, proof of rank and evidence that they were actually at the location of the bombs target is bullshit. If anyone you did not like did this you would see through it instantly.

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The narrative that hamas "shelters in, around and under civilian infrastructure" comes from believing official Israeli sources.

Are you trying to tell us they don't?

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I'm saying that we would not be talking about or discussing the narrative of human shields if Israeli did not keep brining it up. There is no significant evidence of this outside of press releases.

There is vast tunnel network that Hamas  and the other brigades operate out of. It's deep enough that it can't easily be bombed or detected. This is where you will find your military targets.

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I'm guessing the tunnels under hospitals and schools containing bombs and terrorists and the tunnels under the borders are really just to import cream buns and fairy cakes. I'd say anything with a bunker or a tunnel under it is a legit target.

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Yes, there may be an Israeli statement in the article headed with traumatic pictures and videos of injured Palestinians. I wonder which people focus on? 

Like I've said elsewhere in the thread, it's very difficult to know the truth of these things. No-one is there filming what (if anything) provoked an Israeli attack, just the aftermath.

Hamas have fairly extreme religious beliefs including the glory of martyrdom - dead civilians are a great PR tool and not a real cost as they will end up in heaven for dying in a righteous cause. They have absolutely no desire to save Palestinian civilian lives. I believe if Israel could wage this war without killing any civilians they would do so. 

At the end of the day I consider whether I would prefer to live under an Israeli government or under Hamas and that clarifies things for me. 

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They get these pictures and video because Israel bombed some young kids. When Israel only provides some vague, unprovable justification that's indefinitely reusable, that's not good enough. No one gets that benefit of the doubt and no one should make that decision. It's indiscriminate bombing or worse and if they are willing to do that then what else would they do.

Hamas has no air defence. Israel can take whatever footage they want. There should be evidence of Hamas entering there areas, every single time, otherwise what were they targeting. And if they hit an ammo dump capture the footage of the secondary explosions.

"it's very difficult [for me] to know the truth of these things."

Then don't carelessly comment on it and definitely don't defend it.

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I think it is very dangerous to say that anyone who is aware of the uncertainties on a topic should vacate the field and leave the debate to those who are baselessly certain about the issue. To quote Socrates, “The more I know, the more I realize I know nothing.”

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Sorry, I edited that.

You carelessly took a moral stance on the subject of ethnic cleansing and genocide. You are going to end up arguing that its ok to bomb kids as long as you can say I'm sorry I thought one of their dads (the Hamas commander) was visiting but we were not completely sure of who it was.

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At this point I don't believe this is genocide. Of course I could be convinced otherwise but currently I frame this as a war between two asymmetric parties, one of which shelters among civilians. We can't have a situation where this means they cannot be touched and Israel must sit back and wait for the next incursion and rocket attack. Whenever a war is fought, some level of civilian casualties is always incurred. A perfectly coherent anti-war argument could be made against this, but if I was going to make that argument the more obvious target is Russia who are waging an unprovoked war and deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure. 

I'm not willing to get into the weeds of whether particular actions were justified or not because I simply haven't spent the hundreds of hours research that would be required to properly comment. If the ICC put the time in and can make a case against Netanyahu I certainly won't defend him - I find it somewhat suspect that the other two members of his war cabinet have made public statements against the conduct of the war. I suspect they have made mistakes but I do not envy their difficult position. 

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“An eye for an eye.” That’s what the good book says (Exodus 21:23-27) and that is exactly what Israel is doing in their mind. The particular enemy in this case has avowed that all of Israel, its people, are to be exterminated and in that they are not alone.  They would not be fighting alone either if it weren’t for Israel’s nuclear weaponry and the precedent accorded them by such as Putin with legitimacy to engage if faced by an existential threat.  Not trying to justify one side or the other here, just an opinion as to how the battleground is based.

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Yes, they are in a tough corner defending the only Jewish state in the world. Looking at the history, and current state, of antisemitism around the world I do not blame them one bit. History tells us no other country will look out for their interests - the list of nearby countries that have not expelled their Jewish population, or worse, at some point must be vanishingly small.  

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Exactly, Israel is a tiny nation whose people were persecuted and murdered on an industrial scale. The Jewish contribution to civilisation is enormous on a per capita basis and Israel is the only democracy in the region, thank god it exists. I have a number of Jewish friends and they are all smart, succeddful hard-working lovely people - so maybe I'm biased? I don't agree with settlers taking land in the West Bank for the record, neither innocent civilians suffering - but for that Hamas must take responsibility.

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One of the outcomes of this most recent tragedy is that many fewer people will conflate Zionists with Jews in future. That is not a good thing for Israel as it relies on that assumed equivalence to make a moral argument.

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Israel has lost a vast amount of support in just a few months.  Most of the world hates them.  And judging by the ticks here only a few here support them.

Killing $40K Palestinians is really shooting themselves in the foot.

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You have to hand it to Hamas, their ability to accurately count civilian casualties in the fog of quite an intense conflict is unparalleled. I'm sure they have no incentive to inflate those numbers. Israel will tell you 12k of those are Hamas fighters which gives you a civilian death ratio that is not crazy in a war deliberately fought in built up regions with limit options for civilians to leave. 

Of course both the numbers are wrong and you'd be crazy to believe either without some critical thought. 

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The guerrilla wins if he does not lose. Old maxim that one. Usually though, those that lose don’t know they have lost because they are likely dead. Ultimate fate of Che Guevara for instance.

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Te Kooti - bollocks. 

The reason they were persecuted, was because they were the identifiable rentiers, in a prolonged time of mass hardship. So went the French Revolution. 

Civilisation is really just the consuming of a finite planet - no long-term use as formatted. Democracy? Maybe you need to read some Israeli political history. Propaganda has been their tool - think Uris' 'Exodus' - for a long time. Their approach to others - all others - is arrogant/ruthless. Individually - as with all nations - there are nice folk. As a nation? Nothing but evil. I'll ask you a simple question - what did the Palestinians do, to deserve this genocide? 

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The reason they were persecuted, was because they were the identifiable rentiers

What an utter load of shit!

I'll ask you a simple question - what did the Palestinians do, to deserve this genocide?

You're begging the question. Bad faith argument, revisionist history nonsense - you should be ashamed.

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Israel is engaged in the real estate deal of the century! Prime beachfront property in Gaza for the low price of 40k dead innocent Palestinians. Mostly women and children, but there are gas drilling deals to boot. There's nothing quite like admiration for genocide on a Wednesday morning. 

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AC and TA are some of interest.co.nz readers favs - they have a love love hate relationship them that is hard to explain.

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Why does anyone give AC any airtime? He has no qualifications to talk about property.

What constitutes "qualifications"? Does a real estate agent license count? I thought any old plonker could become a property expert if they stump up the fees and attend the lectures.

The fact that Ashley was the Grand Pooh Bah of one of those property organizations should qualify him at some level. In fact, I would expect many people would love to have Ashley at a neighborhood BBQ where the guests could ask him anything they want about the Ponzi - like a Q&A on the TV where people get to ask one of the experts.  

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Well if you're seeking to give an impartial view of a situation you would normally try to find someone fairly impartial not someone who is trying to sell you the product. 

I mean if your go to for dietary advice is the junk food lobby you're going to get different assessment than say a healthcare professional.

But up to you how you approach the search for truth/evidence.

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Fair enough.

Is Adrian Orr impartial? Or is he trying to sell me something? Serious questions. 

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Exactly,

Everyone has a bias. Adrian Orr has a KPI to reduce inflation and will tell everyone to stop spending so he can achieve his goal (whereas during covid he needed us to keep spending so wanted everyone to borrow and spend heaps). Luxon owns 7 houses so is unlikely to let the market completely crash and will provide some protection for landlords... TA is paid by  mortgage brokers who need to keep lending, sounds like Hoskins is sponsored by the RE industry... lol.

Even in wars - particularly Ukraine...  everyone involved has a lot of hidden agendas and not much can be taken at face value, each media outlet  is very biased for their own ends

The big problem is when people ignore the need to dig into everyones agenda and properly research and reflect on decisions...  instead many blindly follow the advice that suits them best - and then consider themselves 'victims' when the advice proves incorrect.

The need to do your own research before making decisions has always been key, these days because of the internet its easier than ever  to research stuff from your sofa (you just need to understand how try to find the real facts and weight up your options...and read useful stuff instead of social media).

Personal accountability, balanced investment decisions - all with a decent moral compass.- and vitally never allowing yourself to blame anyone else for your decisions tends to deliver the best outcomes. 

 

 

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Precisely. Ashley Church, Luxo, The Hosk, Orr all have a vested interest in the Ponzi for a variety of reasons. The common element would be their own personal interests. But I think it's superficial to say that they are wholly driven by self interest. For all 4, feeding the ego as an emotional gratification will be important. 

Would you feel confident betting against the collective wisdom and experience of these four identities?

  

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"Is Adrian Orr impartial? Or is he trying to sell me something? Serious questions. "

Depends on the topic.

On housing he repeatedly warned that housing is overpriced and a risk to financial stability. His sell is probably that he ideally brings in policies that reduce house prices but at a rate that doesn't cause too much systemic financial instability. But I would say Orr is NOT the most impartial to base your decisions on. 

You have a weird habit of pivoting to someone else when someone challenges your source/evidence base. Is that called whataboutism? 

EDIT - Orr is NOT the most impartial

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You have a weird habit of pivoting to someone else when someone challenges your source/evidence base. Is that called whataboutism? 

Not sure what you mean. I raised the question as to 'what is qualified'. I think Ashley Church is qualified to some extent.  

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'Property Historian' I believe.

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Earlier I was talking about Hosking not being particularly well informed you said what about Jacinda.

Here I say Ashley Church has no authority to speak impartially on the subject of housing as he actively benefits from spruiking and you say what about Orr?

Weird.

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My opinions about The Hosk are just that. An opinion. Similarly with the Dame. Neither are reference sources for me. But The Hosk has surprised me on numerous occasions. Surprised me. Not enlightened me. 

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There are a long list of commentators who I do not click on.

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"Did the Reserve Bank massage its OCR forecasts to help Labour keep power? (we've found evidence pointing to it)

...The RBNZ held onto its "the-OCR-has-peaked" line in its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) in August 2023, just over one month before the General Election that was held in October. That Statement enabled Finance Minister, Grant Robertson, to issue a Beehive Press Release in September, weeks before the election, saying, "The Reserve Bank is indicating interest rates have peaked .. ". The claim was absolutely vital for PM Hipkins & Robertson's hopes of clinging onto power. It enabled them to argue to millions of Kiwis that the interest rates on their mortgages would fall, persuading them to vote Labour. Enough to swing an election.

Except a short time later, barely four weeks after the October 2023 election was held, which the Nats won, the Reserve Bank dramatically reversed itself. Five days after the signing of the Coalition Agreement on 24 November 2023, the Bank released a new Monetary Policy Statement on 29 November. Instead of forecasting a falling OCR, it forecast a rising OCR. The graph below, obtained from the RBNZ's own data, reveals an OCR projected to rise nearly 25 basis points (from around 5.5% to 5.7%) over the coming year, leading to more potential mortgage rate rises."

https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/did-the-reserve-bank-massage-its-ocr-…

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I recall challenging this point at the time, to which David (I think) responded. The gist was that the RBNZ making a move in either direction would influence the election, and holding steady was the least impactful approach for them. The way in which either party used this information in the election campaign is on them.

I'm less concerned about that and more concerned about why a MPS would influence anyones party vote. That shows more of a lack in education rather than "things are rigged!" given that RBNZ is meant to be independent.

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It has been a suspicion of mine for a while pre-election that there was influence seeping from Govt to the RBNZ that should not happen. Totally unproven on my part, but the actions were too coincidental to claim ignorance or otherwise IMO.

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Is log weekend when the Americans are given a day off to go and build a log cabin in the mountains? 

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There's nothing as satisfying as having a "log weekend holiday." Until monday.

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AIG is also the largest NZ insurer: does the Commerce commission read ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-29/iag-insurance-class-action-for-i…

 

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Bloody hell. Retail is in a very tough spot right now.

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"In the absence of strong consumer confidence, an essential element for a prestige retail organisation, the company is concerned that it may no longer be able to sustain the impact of a continued sales drop in our physical stores compounding the impact of the past five years"

Anything to do with the wealth effect? Don't want to sound like a DGM, but you have to ask the right questions. 

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With the plummeting Resi Ponzi and about to plummet Commercial space.....the only wealth affect now comes from the 6% of the few with big term deposits and them in the winning stocks.

Ponzi promoters and them Donkey Deep in it are in "shut wallet time"   
Survive to 2027time.

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