A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, ComCom's different responses, Tower on the up, residential investors watch cash leak away, swaps stable, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report again today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
AMP KiwiSaver is now offering its members access to Heartland Bank term deposits. And this channel is offering a 'special' of 6.35% for both the six and nine month term deposit, +10 bps higher than Heartland's carded rate.

COMCOM FINDS $15 MLN OVERCHARGE
Commerce Commission says motorists are being charged an extra $15 million annually due to 'rockets and feathers' petrol pricing and wants fuel companies to drop their prices after the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax goes in July.

NEGATIVE CASHFLOWS HURT
Negative cash flows are the most likely reason for residential property falling out of favour with investors, according to the updated Rental Yield Indicator report.

COMCOM DUMPS ON SELF-REPORTER
Commerce Commission has filed criminal charges against Kiwibank, accusing them of 'longstanding, systemic breaches of the Fair Trading Act'. It was Kiwibank themselves who identified and reported the issues to the Commerce Commission (and not the Commerce Commission finding them out independently).

TOWER INSURANCE UPGRADES PROFIT GUIDANCE
Tower now expects its full-year underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) for the 2024 financial year to exceed $40 million. This is up from the previously advised figure of over $35 million that the general insurer had told the market in April it expected to reach. Tower said the increase in profit guidance was due to a continuation of “positive trading conditions including unseasonably benign weather” in the past couple of months. Despite experiencing two storms in New Zealand in May, Tower said that it had incurred relatively insignificant claims costs, failing to meet the threshold for large events. Tower's updated guidance assumes full utilisation of the FY24 large events allowance which is conservatively set at $45 million.

CONSUMER NZ LAUNCHES PETITION SEEKING GREATER GOVT ACTION ON SCAMS
Consumer NZ is launching a petition calling for the Government to step in and force banks, digital platforms and telcos to do more to tackle scams. Consumer NZ wants banks to refund scam victims unless the victim has been grossly negligent, a national anti-scam framework requiring banks, telcos and digital platforms to take action against scams and outlining their liability if they fail to meet their obligations, and a centralised anti-scam centre where relevant organisations work together. Whilst anti-scam centres are being run by governments in Singapore and Australia, the NZ government has left it to businesses to regulate themselves, Consumer NZ says. Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly is in Singapore this week attending scam and fraud prevention meetings.

ASB APPOINTS CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER
ASB has appointed Amie Nilsson, currently its Chief Risk Officer, to the newly created executive role of Chief Operating Officer. Nilsson is scheduled to start the new role on August 15. Meanwhile, Lohit Kalburgi, the bank's Chief Transformation Officer, leaves on June 30 to return to the UK. ASB says roles reporting to the Chief Transformation Officer will move to other senior managers. An Acting Chief Risk Officer will be appointed while a permanent replacement for Nilsson is recruited.

VIVIER LIQUIDATOR SECURES FUNDING FOR TILT AT UK COMPANY
The liquidator of NZ financial services provider Vivier and Company says he has secured enough funding from creditors to pursue liquidation proceedings against UK company Monument Realty. Monument received "circa $2 million" from Vivier and Company's sister company, Vivier Capital, which is also in liquidation, "with no obvious basis," liquidator Bede Henderson of Waterstone Insolvency says. Henderson says creditors stumping up money for the proceedings against Monument will have priority in any unsecured distribution. (There's more on this here).

DAIRY SECTOR ECONOMIC BASICS
DairyNZ has released this useful update of the sector's situation.

BACK DOOR OPENED WIDER
Because rental incomes are unlikely to be sufficient on their own to make and hold a residential development, it is curious why there is activity in the Build-To-Rent segment. Today the Government signaled that overseas investment will get easier clearance to participate. However, the model becomes clearer if the BTR development is later sold off piecemeal, unit-by-unit. That accesses the capital gains and capital release that can underpin the underperforming rental situation. However, it should be noted that more residential units will help address housing needs, and help push down or keep a lid on rising prices.

VEHICLE ACTIVITY STILL LAME
ANZ's May truckometer indicator is repeating earlier signals. The heavy traffic index is +1.8% higher than a year ago (using a three-month average to smooth out volatility), while light traffic is up +1.3%. Neither has kept up with recent population growth.

MORE RELEASES
Our Budget 2024 analysis has now been extended to Housing, and to the full range of tax benefits covered in the 'Treasury & Revenue' category, which also includes the cost of debt servicing.

NAB SEES NO PROGRESS
Australian business sentiment isn't improving. In fact, business confidence there fell back into negative territory in May as conditions continued to gradually soften, suggesting the subdued economic activity seen in the Q1 GDP data has continued into Q2. Business conditions slipped just below average with trading conditions and profitability easing.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today with a touch of firmness. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.62%, a level it has hovered around for almost 90 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from Friday at 4.38%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.32%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.80% from yesterday and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.78% and up +8 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from yesterday at 4.45%. Their 2yr is now at 4.87%, so the curve is now at -42 bps inverted.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, SOME BY A LOT
The NZX50 is down a very minor -0.1% in late trade today. However, the ASX is diving lower, down -1.6% in afternoon trade so far. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trading up +0.3%. However both Hong Kong and Shanghai are retreating today in early trade, by -1.6% and -0.9% respectively. Singapore is down -0.5% in early trade there. The S&P500 ended its Monday trade up nearly +0.3% on Wall Street earlier.

OIL FIRMER
The oil price is +US$1.50 higher from this time yesterday, now just over US$77/bbl in the US, and just over US$81/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed, up just +US$5 from this time yesterday at just om US$2302/oz.

NZD SLIGHTLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is almost +¼c firmer that this time yesterday, now at 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at just on 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 56.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 70.7.

BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price is down -2.4% today from this time yesterday, now at US$68,120. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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