A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Kiwibank ups two short TD rates, supermarket cost pressure eases, RBNZ watches shadow banks, Contact commissions more geothermal capacity, swaps & NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report todays. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has raised its 4 and 5 month TD rates to 5.00% for both. That puts its four month offer the highest of any main bank for that term. But others already had this rate for a five month term. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here. But we have corrected an error in our Business Savings table page. (We had the Westpac rates wrong. Sorry to them.)

PRESSURE EASING
Supplier cost increases continue to slow, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index showing an average 2.7% more than a year ago in what suppliers charged Foodstuffs supermarkets for goods. That tis down from a +8.3% rise in June 2023. Although global shipping prices are higher and continue to cause concern for future input cost pressures, reduced import costs, softer fuel prices, and lower global food prices are all encouraging signs of a continued moderation in cost pressures, they noted.

'STAY ON HOLD'
The NZIER's 'shadow board' view of economists (6), lobbyists (1), and a financial CEO (1) generally recommended that the RBNZ keep the OCR at 5.5% in the upcoming Monetary Policy Review on Wednesday (July 10). The weaker growth and a slack labour market, along with the continued easing in annual CPI inflation, suggest that the OCR increases to date are reducing inflation pressures in the domestic economy. However, with domestic inflation pressures remaining elevated, Shadow Board members were of the view that the RBNZ should remain cautious about moving the OCR for now. One member (BNZ's Stephen Toplis) considered that there is justification for a cut in the OCR given the deteriorating economic outlook.

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SHADOW BANKING SECTOR
RBNZ today said it will 'monitor developments' in the private credit sector, including its 'linkages with the financial system'.

EXPANDING GEOTHERMAL CAPACITY
Contact Energy said its new 174 MW Tauhara geothermal plant near Taupō is nearing completion and has passed its 30-day reliability test. This new facility is in addition to the recently nearly completed 51 MW geothermal plant, Te Huka 3, also near Taupō, which is expected to go online in Q4-2024.

EASING BACK
A little air seems to be going out of the rising Australian housing markets - an indication from their lending data shows. Owner-occupier loan demand fell -2.0% in May from April to now be up +12% year-on-year.

AN AUSSIE ADVENTURE
And in case you missed it, global realtor Frank Knight and Bayleys NZ (both privately owned), have teamed up to buy the previously listed Australian realtor group McGrath Limited. McGrath as 110 offices. Frank Knight has about 60 offices in Australia. Bayleys has 100 offices here. As a sign of support, Direct Capital has bought back in to Bayleys which will allow them to fund the purchase. Direct Capital is no stranger to Bayleys having previously been an investor, but quit that holing in 2022.

SWAP RATES NOT DOING MUCH
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed again today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.61%, a level it has hovered around for 125 days now. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps from this time Friday at 4.41%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 2.31% as the PBoC swings into action. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.72% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.65% and down -8 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from this morning at 4.29%. Their 2yr is now at 4.62%, so the curve is still inverted by -33 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY NEGATIVE, EXCEPT WALL STREET & TOKYO
The NZX50 is down -0.7% from Friday in late trade. And the ASX200 is down -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.2% at its open and again pushing new all-time highs. Hong Kong is down -1.3%, and Shanghai is down -0.6% to open their day's trading. Singapore is down -0.2%. Wall Street is signaling a +0.9% rise via the S&P500 futures when they open tomorrow.

OIL SOFTISH
The oil price is down nearly -50 USc at US$82/bbl in the US, and at US$86/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD OFF SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is a little softer since this morning, down -US$7 at US$2382/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is holding from this morning, still at 61.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 91 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 56.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed, still at 70.6.

BITCOIN FALLS FURTHER
The bitcoin price has fallen another -2.9% from this morning's open, now at US$55,275. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/- 3.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».