A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Westpac makes early retail rate moves, food prices fall, truckometer issues warning, NZGB demand returns, swaps eyed, NZD stops falling, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Westpac has cut some key carded fixed home loan rates by up to -25 bps. Details here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac has cut some term deposit rates too. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FOOD PRICES FALL
Stats NZ says lower prices for tomatoes, cheese, and potatoes have driven food prices to annual six-year low while prices for petrol and tobacco climb

RENTS TOPPED OUT, SHOW SIGNS OF FALLING
Rents for new tenants fell overall nationally in June from May. For existing tenants there were virtually unchanged. Compared to a year ago, rents for new tenants are up 2.5%, the slowest pace since the start of 2023. In Auckland, that year-on-year rate is just +1.0%.

'MAKES FOR UGLY READING'
ANZ released its Truckometer monitoring for June, and it paints a dramatic picture of a fast-slowing economy. The charting is quite sobering. The commentary is too.

BURDENS, COMPARED
Some political parties have been slamming excessive regulation and its burdens. Today, the OECD released a report that included an analysis of regulatory burdens across all its members (38) allowing for relative comparisons. Mostly, we don't look good.

DEMAND RETURNS, IN SPADES
Unlike the last NZGB bond tender, demand was very high at today's three-part event. This was unexpected, as analysts had sensed this one might have been a struggle. But it wasn't. $500 was offered, $1.643 bln was bid with only 41 of the 125 bids winning a share. Yields eased in two of the tranches.

MAKING BANKS INTO POLICEMEN
Pushed by regulators to stop scans, ANZ and Westpac are two New Zealand banks that get to know their customers better with behavioural biometrics.

STUCK HIGH
Australian consumer inflation expectations barely edged lower to 4.3% in July from 4.4% in June. This is no progress because they averaged less than 4% from 2012 to 2019. They seem stuck at over 4%, well above the RBA's target range.

MISSING EXPECTATIONS
Japanese machinery orders fell in May from April when a small rise was anticipated. Japan's core machinery orders, which exclude those for ships and electric power companies, fell -3.2% month-on-month. This also missed market expectations for a +0.8% gain. The decrease in capital spending was driven by a sharp decline in the non-manufacturing sector, although machinery orders from manufacturers rose +1% from April to be +10.8% higher than year-ago levels. Orders including the big lumpy items rose sharply, however.

POORER OUTCOMES?
QuayStreet's Xavier Waterstone unpacks how New Zealand’s KiwiSaver tax and contributions regime results in poorer outcomes for retirement balances versus Australia’s superannuation system.

BENCHMARKING ATHs
You probably know that Wall Street and Tokyo have both hit new all-time record highs. So we thought we would check to see where the share prices of our four big (Aussie-owned) banks were at. ANZ is currently -19% below its all-time high in 2015. CBA however hit its ATH today. NAB is still -13% below its ATH reached in 2007. And Westpac is today -30% lower than its ATH reached in 2015. CBA is a clear 'winner' with investors.

SWAP RATES SETTLE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today after yesterday's falls although there is still downside risk. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -5 bps at 5.55%, and finally out of its 125 day tight range. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.42%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.28%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.64% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.58% and down -7 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from yesterday at 4.29%. Their 2yr is still at 4.62%, so the curve remains inverted by -33 bps.

EQUITIES EXUBERANT
The NZX50 is up +0.7% from yesterday in late trade, juiced no doubt by the prospects of lower interest rates. And the ASX200 is up +0.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up a strong +0.8% at its open, to a new all-time high. Hong Kong is up +1.2%, and Shanghai is up +0.8% to open their respective day's trading. Singapore is up +0.3%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up a full +1.0% and its own new all-time high.

OIL UP
The oil price is up +US$1.50 at US$82/bbl in the US, and at just on US$85.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$10 from yesterday at US$2377/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 61 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also down another -10 bps at 56.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 70.

BITCOIN SLIGHTLY FIRMER
The bitcoin price is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday at US$57,865. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 2.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».