What happened Friday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, car sales not as weak as expected, Du Val receivership, house sellers capitulate, eyes on electricity market issues, swaps lower, NZD stable, & more

[updated]

2nd Aug 24, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. But given that market behemoth ANZ currently has market-leading carded fixed rates, it seems unlikely their main rivals can stay comfortably higher than them without leaking market share. Stay tuned. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
AMP said it will be reducing its TD rates on Monday. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

DOWN, BUT NOT OUT
Somewhat surprisingly, July car sales came in at recent-average levels. Given media reports about stressful trading by some car dealers, we had expected that to show up in the July sales data. But in the end, 6341 new car sales were registered in July, 542 of them EVs and 2267 hybrids. In total that is +45% more than the same month a year ago but to be fair that was an unusually weak month. (In the five Julys prior to that the average was 8440.) In addition, 9003 used imported cars were registered in July, also much more than in July 2023, but down on the prior 5 year average of 11,900.

INTERIM RECEIVERSHIP ORDER
The Auckland-based controversial and big-noting property developer Du Val Group has had its entities placed into interim receivership at the request of the FMA, and its owners/directors, Kenyon and Charlotte Clarke, were also constrained by the interim receivership and related 'asset preservation orders'. (At the point of this order, there were only 120 debt holders left. Hopefully the others got paid out. For their sake, hopefully they didn't fall for the debt-to-equity swap that was offered.)

WAREHOUSE TAKEOVER APPROACH REBUFFED
The Warehouse says talks with private equity group Adamantem Capital Management Pty, which had the backing of The Warehouse founder Stephen Tindall, about a takeover offer are off. Adamantem's proposal valued The Warehouse shares at a range of $1.50 to $1.70 each, and Warehouse Chair Joan Withers says the Scheme of Arrangement proposal doesn't have the backing required to obtain the 75% shareholder support required. The Board has decided to "defer further talks until such time as the proposal receives wider shareholder support," says Withers. At the time of writing The Warehouse shares are down more than 9% at $1.28.

SELLER PRICE EXPECTATIONS CAPITULATE
Real estate asking prices sinking like stones while new listings flood the market, says realestate.co.nz. They report average national asking prices were down -$110,500 since February, with Auckland down by -$143,000.

LITTLE RESILIENCE
There were some very worrying electricity market price signals this morning, sharply higher prices everywhere for some time, especially in the South Island. And worse, the Cook Strait transmission capacity was running over 90% of capacity. There is no resilience. Prepare for brownouts.

SHARP LENDING PULLBACK
New residential mortgage lending was down more than -11% in June from the same month a year ago, down -22% from May. Only the small lending activity to residential investors held its own. More broadly, lending to business, including the ag economy, was also sharply lower in June.

CREDIT STRESS LEVELS LOW & NOT GETTING WORSE
Equifax's June report is interesting in that it isn't noting much change in credit stress from Q1. As it notes, these levels remain low and apart from a small deterioration in personal loan stress, all the other categories (home loans, credit cards, utility accounts, etc) saw minor improvements.

CHANGE-AGENT REQUIRED
The Public Service Commission is looking for a new Treasury Secretary. Incumbent Caralee McLiesh has taken the role of Australia’s Auditor-General. The NZ Treasury Secretary has often been sourced from overseas. The job ad seeking candidates says: “The Secretary is expected to be a change agent who will challenge the status quo to lift economic performance, improve public service fiscal management, and extract better value for money from Government investments”.

SELL-OFF UNDERWAY
In case you usually skip reading the equity market summary below, you might want to take a look today. There is a big sell-off underway internationally. A worrying start to August which seems to be related to a reassessment of the AI-induced runup.

SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower today across the curve. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 5.44% and still a 120 day low. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday to 4.07%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 2.12% and we think that is an all-time record low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.27% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.22% and down -8 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down another -9 bps at 3.96%. Their 2yr is now at 4.13%, so that curve is now inverted much less, now by -17 bps. That is near the least inversion in two years.

EQUITIES IN BIG DAILY RETREAT
The NZX50 is down -0.6% in late trade and probably pleased it doesn't have a big tech exposure. But the ASX200 is down a very sharp -2.1% in afternoon trade. Worse, Tokyo has opened its Friday trade down an extreme -4.9%. Hong Kong is down -1.9% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.5%. Singapore is down -1.0%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down -1.4%. But if it holds that tomorrow (no certainty) it would end the week little-changed. It all depends of the influence of the July non-farm payrolls report.

OIL RETREATS
The oil price is down -US$1.50 from this time yesterday at US$76.50/bbl in the US, and at just under US$80/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE RISES
Today the carbon price rose to $53/NZU today from $51/NZU at this time yesterday. That puts it -16% lower than the same day a year ago. Please note that we have a new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$16 from this time yesterday at US$2455/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday, now at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are +10 bps firmer at 55.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still basically at 68.8.

BITCOIN HOLDS LOWER
The bitcoin price is little-changed from this time yesterday, now at US$64,181. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6% however.

USE OF AI
No articles on this news service are produced with AI. Occasionally we use AI to derive images. They are always identified in the attribution.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

108 Comments

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 4:06pm 1722571587

Crap day for a lot of tradies and subbies today.... everything is weak and getting weaker - RBNZ is going to go here.

by Toye | 2nd Aug 24, 4:06pm 1722571579

Crappiest day so far, Bart

by Pagz | 2nd Aug 24, 5:57pm 1722578259

how close are we to the first buzzcut?

by Zwifter | 2nd Aug 24, 9:46pm 1722592007

Anyone here find it a little strange that Du Val never made it to either 6 O'clock news tonight ? Not even a 20 second clip, not a word.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Aug 24, 9:50pm 1722592235

I never watch that shite. And no, not surprised as it’s lightweight ‘entertainment’ posing as ‘news’.

by Flying high | 3rd Aug 24, 4:54am 1722617661

Its not news when they have maiki. Here's some news the US jobs number is only 114000, expectations were for 175000.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Aug 24, 10:06pm 1722593210

I think they might have to go harder now first half of ‘25. The economy is going to be a complete basketcase by Christmas

by solardb | 2nd Aug 24, 4:10pm 1722571826

They've been pumping large amounts of electricity south all day. The lake levels down there must be ringing alarm bells, and look like a dry August.

by Baywatch | 2nd Aug 24, 4:57pm 1722574661

I thought the South Islanders wanted to detach from the North..? Saving their bacon ah 🤤.

by KH | 2nd Aug 24, 6:48pm 1722581316

And where do New Zealand's exports predominantly come from. (hint: look south)

by Baywatch | 2nd Aug 24, 7:32pm 1722583959

If we could export hot air from Christchurch the country would be rich!

by E46 | 2nd Aug 24, 10:38pm 1722595134

The North Island of New Zealand generally contributes a larger share of the country's exports compared to the South Island. This is due to the North Island's higher population density and more extensive agricultural and industrial activities. However, the South Island, despite having a smaller population, is significant for its contributions in sectors like dairy, meat, and forestry

In terms of proportional contribution relative to their populations, the South Island does have a notable impact, especially in primary industries. But overall, the North Island leads in total export volume.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/which-industries-contributed-to-your-regions-gdp.

by M0ralHazard | 2nd Aug 24, 8:15pm 1722586507

Forecast is for -5deg in chch tomorrow (Sat) morning so there will be even more load then. What's the bet that Transpower has to issue a warning notice?

by solardb | 2nd Aug 24, 10:13pm 1722593594

They have got plenty of generating capacity down , south ,they are just conserving water.

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 4:19pm 1722572365

Worse, Tokyo has opened its Friday trade down an extreme -4.9%. Hong Kong is down -1.9% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.5%. Singapore is down -1.0%

Nikkei now down 14% in 20 days - 3rd worse decline in history. All fingers pointing at the BoJ.

With everyone piling into the JPY carry trade, the moves in JPY and Nikkei were only going one way.

But if the unravelling isn't controlled, things could get very nasty.

Selected Japanese banks and finance coys today:

Mitsubishi UFJ - -8.4%

Mizuho - 7.6%

Sumitomo Mitsui - -8%

Nomura - -9.5%

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 4:22pm 1722572551

Gold was right.... again

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 4:23pm 1722572598

Gold was right.... again

This is true.

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 7:09pm 1722582587

Today's decline was the second largest in the Nikkei index's history after the Black Monday crash of 1987.

That day marked the start of the bursting of Japan's bubble.

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 7:27pm 1722583646

OK That is sobering, is this a cleanout of margined leverage positions? or are futures shorts causing physical sales as well?

do they have limit breakers? e-minis have lost 6 points in 6 mins as I watch, market will open below 5400 and sell hard

by bw | 2nd Aug 24, 4:22pm 1722572551

"The Warehouse takeover bid falters..".

Those who sold at ~$1.50 last week might thank themselves lucky. Currently, offered $1.28 - Bid $1.24

Throw in "$458m sale of Auckland’s Vero tower ditched: Year’s biggest property deal off" and it's looking very much like the current price of many things is expected to be a lot less tomorrow.

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 4:21pm 1722572512

"$458m sale of Auckland’s Vero tower ditched: Year’s biggest property deal off"

Are we joining the global CRE apocalypse perhaps? Commercial rents holding up in Raglan as landlords demanding increases.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Aug 24, 4:32pm 1722573179

Hahahaha, Raglan the reknowned bellweather of commercial real estate valuations. I know the London and New York desks wait to see what happened in Raglan before their open.

by mark_a | 2nd Aug 24, 4:25pm 1722572718

Good write up……

Things def feel in flux at the moment. Next week might be quite interesting……

Poss cash is king through until Xmas.

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 4:28pm 1722572937

There is way to much leverage around, things will unwind very quickly this time

by Te Kooti | 2nd Aug 24, 4:34pm 1722573253

I tend to agree, if you aren't liquid enough to last the next 12 months, yur f*******

The sooner we have the big flush out the sooner things can improve.

by Hamish | 2nd Aug 24, 4:42pm 1722573742

Ebenezer Orr will get the Christmas he's been planning for.

by Let me be Frank | 2nd Aug 24, 7:41pm 1722584463

What are we going to improve with?

by bw | 2nd Aug 24, 4:37pm 1722573443

Ah, yes. But lest we forget, the answer is more Debt; much more and crucially, cheaper Debt..... It's worked before, and you can bet, they'll reckon it will again. All that's needed is a reason....

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 4:42pm 1722573721

Ah, yes. But lest we forget, the answer is more Debt; much more and cheaper Debt..... It's worked before, and you can bet, they'll reckon it will again. All that's needed is a reason...

I'm a betting type of person and your summation is what I have my money on. Powell and Orr have their fingers hovering just above the button. All the boffins know what they have to do.

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 4:45pm 1722573904

They can take rates negative if they need to.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Aug 24, 4:46pm 1722574015

Yes they could, but an iphone will be $5k, a hilux $150k and petrol $6 per litre if they do.

by Baywatch | 2nd Aug 24, 5:00pm 1722574820

Bring it on..

by Blackbeard | 2nd Aug 24, 5:25pm 1722576303

And the US 35 trillion debt won’t seem so bad. Bond holders of US dollars will be swapping out for gold as we speak - China and the like.

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 4:48pm 1722574095

Why can’t we just allow private debt levels to drop back to healthy sustainable levels!

Negstive rates will only make our issues even worse than what we are currently experiencing.

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 4:54pm 1722574473

Why can’t we just allow private debt levels to drop back to healthy sustainable levels!

Because those debts are someone else's assets

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 4:58pm 1722574736

Those assets look more like liabilities to me.

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 4:55pm 1722574532

Because GDP growth depends on credit growth, it we had a lost decade we could reduce debt, or we write lots off after a cluster F..k collapse of asset prices and its done in 12 months

Place your bets

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 5:03pm 1722575000

Yes aware of this but unless private debt falls our GDP is going to be rubbish as interest expense is going to keep chewing up too much disposable income.

The young with the debt are going to suffer while the boomer retirees think they are rich by owning a lot of overpriced assets (while taking superannuation payments from the taxes of young over indebted people who can’t afford to pay for it)- it is an extremely daft way of configuring an economy.

The result = extremely poor social and financial stability.

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 5:05pm 1722575120

The solution is lower asset prices and private debt levels.

This solves both the financial and social instability issues we face.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 5:17pm 1722575843

This solves both the financial and social instability issues we face.

It really doesn't.

The debt hides the fact we're poorer than we think, and we drove society off a cliff long ago, into this industrialized, depersonalized hellscape we inhabit.

Happy Friday everyone!

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 5:59pm 1722578359

Happy Friday everyone!

Admire your positivity P. Would have been a tough day for you with the Du Val news. Chin up.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 6:26pm 1722580001

Would have been a tough day for you with the Du Val news

Why's that? I've known they've been on the ropes for a long time, and don't operate in their market.

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 6:46pm 1722581203

Good to hear.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 7:40pm 1722584430

Yeah not sure why it'd be a tough day.

If you want to invest in a business, it should probably be your own. That way you have direct understanding and control of what your money is being used for.

If you need to borrow off people for your business, and can't even pay them back plus 10%, probably not really a business. And your "investors" are really a source of cheap, little risk assessment credit.

I also won't do work for such crowds either. And they're usually pretty easy to spot, by all the useless extravagance.

by HughJorgan | 2nd Aug 24, 5:06pm 1722575181

** looks out front door **

Yip, here we are. And everyday people fail to piece this together. Many complaining about social issues while floating about their overpriced investments.

by Pagz | 2nd Aug 24, 6:42pm 1722580973

I've been trying to convince my boomer parents of the exact situation you describe IO, It just will not sink in.

by KH | 2nd Aug 24, 6:57pm 1722581830

As a boomer parent what do you do? Got houses, got financial investments of variety. No gold but.

Switch it into gold ? Or buy a container load of physical things? Cans of baked beans ?

But actually not particularly worried.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 7:00pm 1722582053

I'm actually looking to start stockpiling early 2000s jap econobox vehicles.

by KH | 2nd Aug 24, 7:06pm 1722582383

The Nissan Cube is highly under rated. And I am not being cynical.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 7:57pm 1722585422

Good use of space.

That era of cars was sort of the pinnacle of reliable engineering, but enough basic comforts, AC, Electrics, half decent stereo.

Since then, many Japanese cars are now "world" cars, Japanese on the outside, crummy french (or other) componentry underneath. A new Nissan is practically disposable, yet young teens are still able to do O rings in a 91 Cefiro.

And we're not selling as many new cars, and we're not importing used cars that don't meet fairly modern standards.

by E46 | 2nd Aug 24, 10:43pm 1722595398

*looks at thirsty euro car and V6 prado*

woops.

by Pagz | 2nd Aug 24, 9:06pm 1722589565

They have been telling me to invest in gold for years, I often point out the reason they can afford investing in gold is their fortnightly superannuation payment, of which they save half of.

with bit of luck they'll leave some behind?

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 7:18pm 1722583127

I found reading ‘The 4th Turning’ a great book for understanding the paradigms each generation generally views the world through.

Good luck convincing the typical boomer they have a responsibility for the outcomes of greater society and the economy - for that particular generation the ‘self’ is generally far more important than the collective. So issues of society wide financial and society stability generally don’t register with them (their default is ‘not my problem’) - this is because this role was always played by their parents the greatest generation who after WW2 and the depression, wanted to create financial and social security for their children. As a result boomers just assume it is something that is taken for granted (and they despise the thought of being anything like their parents as their role in the 60’s/70’s was to rebel against their conservative parents who cared about society as opposed to the self) as opposed to being something that is created through a selfless view towards these issues. Sacrifice for the greater good isn’t something that resonates with boomers but it generally did for the greatest generation. (And the 4th turning predicts that millennials are the next hero generation that will restore order in the 2030’s - 2060s after the boomers relinquish power).

Anyway a great read (4th turning) and what is happening globally and inter generationally makes far more sense after reading the book.

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 7:21pm 1722583260

Note the above is by no means an attack on boomers btw - each generation has its own dark side personality traits not just boomers.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 7:43pm 1722584626

In another time and place, each of us could've been fairly savage. But most of us are just of our time.

Presumably a lot of our stock is made up by people who've had to win a fight.

by Pagz | 2nd Aug 24, 9:26pm 1722590814

Thanks for the reply, being a millennial I shall have a read!.

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 9:42pm 1722591726

Here’s a short summary by one of the authors:

https://youtu.be/8Yfb2zQjKWE?si=1hce25OVXZT7y_Qp

by sgtshortcut | 2nd Aug 24, 5:31pm 1722576678

All jokes aside with how brutal it’s turning…& considering the lag…how fast/deep do you think they’ll cut? It’s scary shit, I think most of us knew this was coming though yeah…they overstimulated then overtightened so overstimulate again is on the cards?

by HouseMouse | 2nd Aug 24, 4:56pm 1722574572

Cash is King - I have been rubbished many a time for holding that view

by Blackdog | 2nd Aug 24, 5:11pm 1722575509

Gold is king. Cash is an IOU too

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 5:35pm 1722576942

To some extent. But remember, in the GFC, NZD was one of the worse performing fiat currencies among developed nations. JPY was the best performing fiat currency, partly because of the unwinding of the carry trade. NZD, AUD were smashed. JPY - low cost of debt service; NZD/AUD - higher cost of debt service.

Cash is king when you're living paycheck to paycheck.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 5:55pm 1722578145

Having liquidity at a time like this is usually good. That includes having that liquidity in a form you can quickly deploy in the market you operate in.

Trying to guess where relative values of various types of money might go, and having your wealth tied up in a form of money you can't readily use, can be problematic.

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 6:00pm 1722578422

Trying to guess where relative values of various types of money might go, and having your wealth tied up in a form of money you can't readily use,

Du Val debt for equity?

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 6:28pm 1722580120

No, whatever flavour of the month asset class you're waiting on to pop off.

by KH | 2nd Aug 24, 7:04pm 1722582255

"Cash is King" yes. Or the mirror of that. "Debt is the millstone"

Remember those idiots of a few years back preaching crap that we should borrow like crazy.

High interest rates are not the problem. It's having the debt in the first place.

by Audaxes | 2nd Aug 24, 4:38pm 1722573517

There is a big sell-off underway internationally.

Huge moves all over the markets today. Hell, even stocks took a second to wonder if recessions are actually good for share prices. Rates have plunged not because of Fed cuts but why the Fed will be forced to cut in a series (just as Powell hinted at Wednesday) Link

Major hedging in forward rate markets. Those markets aren't pricing one or two Fed cuts. Once they start they won't be able to stop. That's where SOFR futures are already. Not only a higher probability of a series, greater chance that series goes on longer and lower. Link

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 4:45pm 1722573952

Here is a good chart showing the problem the US (and by default the rest of the world) are facing..

https://x.com/gameoftrades_/status/1819049146076340680?s=46&t=MUwQeKa7M…

Debt growth is logarithmic/exponential - in the adult lifetime of the boomer generation US national debt has gone from $1 trillion to $35 trillion! This is a serious issue which I don’t see a good solution to.

by Blackbeard | 2nd Aug 24, 5:30pm 1722576614

Irresponsible (taking the piss - kiwi lingo) you can see why the US dollar won’t be the world’s currency very soon.

by dee_jee_emm | 2nd Aug 24, 8:26pm 1722587192

Silly IO.

Boomers have a really simple solution for when this debt becomes a problem.

It's called "Aww. Thanks for your concern. But I'll be dead by then".

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 4:52pm 1722574347

A nice/short video summarising the yield curve inversion and noting the only time we’ve had a longer rate inversion was just prior to the 1929 sharemarket crash/Great Depression.

https://x.com/gameoftrades_/status/1819115060520014214?s=46&t=MUwQeKa7M…

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 4:53pm 1722574405

The corrupt party among the Aussie ruling elite goes on.

Businessman Ziggy Switkowski — who was paid by PwC to conduct a governance “review” — personally interviewed the head of PwC for the entire tax leaks affair but later shredded his notes.

Switkowski has told a Senate inquiry that he met with ex-PwC Australia CEO Luke Sayers “way down the track” during his review last year but had not records of the meeting.

The meeting had been held “at a hotel over coffee” and while members of his eight-person support team had been present at some other interviews they were not present at the Sayers meeting.

https://theklaxon.com.au/switkowski-shredded-notes-after-meeting-ex-pwc…

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 5:18pm 1722575935

That's an I do not recall Your Honor moment

let me check my notes

by HughJorgan | 2nd Aug 24, 5:02pm 1722574979

The Du Val people, Kenyon and Charlotte, were recording a series a little while ago. Whoever has it should release it.

It’s about time people with zero technical capability and zero ethics started going to jail. If you cannot show competency with financial forecasting, interest rate risk management and refinancing risk management then they should go to jail.

The whole property sector, even many of the listed ones, is just too unskilled. Take a look at the hedging policy profiles that don’t change as they go through the property cycles. It’s just moronic.

by bw | 2nd Aug 24, 5:06pm 1722575188

"...people with zero technical capability..."

Steady on! It sounds like you're talking about our Minister of Finance there....

by Foxglove. | 2nd Aug 24, 5:27pm 1722576429

At least Finance Ministers have to front. To parliament, to the electorate along with their respective governments . From memory from the mid sixties up until 1984 various NZ Finance Ministers implemented seven or so devaluations of the NZ$. That introduced volatility, uncertainty and confusion to all involved in NZ’s global trade and hardly inspired confidence. On the other hand, the fast grown empire at the RBNZ has through sequences of extreme adjustment of the OCR viz, crash dive, rocket up and crash dive pending, have introduced volatility, uncertainty, and confusion together with severe financial hardship to households, businesses and industry. Not a heck of a lot of having to front to the electorate about it though, is there.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 5:35pm 1722576906

Kinda rare to see much skill enacted across most of society these days.

Heady, yet mindless at the same time.

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 5:20pm 1722576056

after discounts , cultural impact statements, bad childhood, early guilty please.... 12 months home detention at a Waiheke mansion owned by a "Friend"

by Time Lord | 2nd Aug 24, 5:27pm 1722576440

This was the teaser: The Property Developers (Season 1) - Promotional Trailer

by K.W. | 2nd Aug 24, 6:55pm 1722581754

I really hope they are still filming. Then that show will be gold.

by TronMVP | 3rd Aug 24, 12:10am 1722600616

Time Lord, that clip was hilarious!

by bw | 2nd Aug 24, 5:09pm 1722575399

WHS. Given at $1.24. Offered $1.23 - Bid $1.20.

NZ$/AU, at the risk of repetition, another All Time High $4,130.

by stefanblaise | 2nd Aug 24, 5:23pm 1722576203

If anyone likes what has become know as the Buffett Ratio - the ratio of the total value of a countrys' entire stock market values - divided into its GDP - 50-75% is about average, more than 100% is overvalued, under 50% is undervalued. US markets have recently been at 190%. Locally, NZ and OZ sit at about 100%. Definetly time for some revaluations.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Aug 24, 5:26pm 1722576400

That’s what you get when you gear up from 50% to 110% public debt to gdp

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 5:30pm 1722576654

even 30% drop in us markets going to smash most NZ Kiwisaver's, on top of biggest asset falling "like a stone". The negative multiplier going to go nuts

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 5:36pm 1722576960

#toobigtofail

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 5:40pm 1722577250

#tobigtosave

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 5:50pm 1722577849

So you reckon they'll let it all go this time? Wipe out retirement savings, businesses, etc?

Cleaning up the mess is way harder than firing up the printers.

by IT GUY | 2nd Aug 24, 6:46pm 1722581204

No central Banker can ever let it go, they have to avoid deflation. The problem, though, is the debt bubble just expands. At some point the printers go Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr will not work as there will be a massive run to Gold or BTC or something non fiat that they cannot print. You cannot print food or oil or electricity. If you take cash out of a system even electronic numbers and buy gold you deflate a banks balance sheet... once out they need to replace that capital.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 6:50pm 1722581414

So then we agree they'll fire up the printers and it'll have a diminishing return.

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Aug 24, 7:03pm 1722582209

Yes this thinking aligns with Dalio’s in ‘The Changing World Order’ and it is why reserve currency nations always overextend and then fail.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 7:50pm 1722585057

There's too much demand for continuity to allow anything to fail - unless you're trying to make an example of someone.

How can shares go up in a market where demand is trending down.

Does not compute without magic being involved.

by mfd | 2nd Aug 24, 6:28pm 1722580111

I make it NZ GDP at 410 billion and market cap around 165 billion, ratio of about 40%.

I wouldn't give too much weight to it though, depends heavily on the balance between publicly listed and privately held companies in a particular country, and doesn't account for companies listed overseas (unless I'm missing something).

For example, if FPH got bought out tomorrow does that mean the rest of the market becomes 10% better value?

by stefanblaise | 2nd Aug 24, 6:42pm 1722580944

Yes its a rough guide - but where did you get the figures from?

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX - add up the figures in the RH column. This is just the main board of course..

Divide into: https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/gross-domestic-product-gdp/ 

by mfd | 2nd Aug 24, 7:24pm 1722583448

I got my data from here:

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/New-Zealand/stock_market_capitalizatio…

Your link also quotes the total market capatilisation at the top of the page at $171 billion, pretty close to my link. The top two in the list itself are Westpac and ANZ which are dual listed on the ASX - the majority of this valuation should accrue to Australia rather than New Zealand. I'm not really sure how the link above or the NZX total market cap does the split for companies like this. Maybe it is based on primary listing location, which would mean these companies only count towards the ASX market cap.

This only shows how problematic the ratio is - there are huge numbers of companies listed in 2+ stock exchanges. Not to mention New Zealand companies like XRO that are only listed elsewhere now.

by K.W. | 2nd Aug 24, 6:59pm 1722581984

I dont think this is oarticularly relevant today. GDP is as the name states is "Domestic". The Mega Caps (Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft et al) are all global companies with huge international earnings.

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 5:33pm 1722576797

Maccy B reckons in terms of household incomes and consumption, the current recession is Australia’s worst in modern history.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/08/australias-recession-worst-in-…

by HouseMouse | 2nd Aug 24, 6:02pm 1722578550

Bunch of racist DGMs!!!!

by J.C. | 2nd Aug 24, 6:14pm 1722579250

Don't see any racial slurs from LVO. He's a much better person than that. Not a virtue signaler though. I think you'll find he understands the economic plight of aboriginal people and racial minorities better then the ruling elite and the pretend socialists.

by Foxglove. | 2nd Aug 24, 7:15pm 1722582913

There seems to be racial slurs aplenty occurring in parliament here though. Except it is the same race slurring one another. Or is one parliamentary tribe against another, more accurate. The first seemingly has had to absorb abuse and insults generally and because of that feel justified in hurling abuse and insults at the other party even though the recipient of that had nothing to do with what the first party has had to withstand. This is our parliament behaving worse than a bunch of loutish school yard bullies. Any reasonable, responsible person understands that if a stranger should unfortunately punch you, there is neither reason nor justification to then yourself, go and punch another stranger.

by Baywatch | 2nd Aug 24, 7:47pm 1722584835

Represents NZ as a whole pretty much..

by Foxglove. | 2nd Aug 24, 8:12pm 1722586324

Aye, sadly that is what it is.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Aug 24, 7:35pm 1722584103

Sorry it was sarc.

They get accused of that though. Because they question mass immigration and the way Aus sucks up to China.

I thought it was interesting how LVO pivoted from planning being the source of all housing ills, to immigration.

by bw | 2nd Aug 24, 7:12pm 1722582774

NZ$/AU = $4,141 All Time High, and still going up....

This is all looking...well..... a bit precarious....

WHS, given at $1.20, down 15%. Monday, could be interesting....

by chemistpeter@g… | 2nd Aug 24, 9:45pm 1722591927

What is the max your savings you have in the bank to be covered by the govt

by Squishy | 2nd Aug 24, 9:47pm 1722592053

No articles on this news service are produced with AI.

Sometimes I do wonder about some of the commenters though!

by HouseMouse | 2nd Aug 24, 10:15pm 1722593732

The best insights on the NZ economy continue to be offered by Maccy B across the ditch. The mortgage data is ‘interesting’…

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/08/reserve-bank-has-lifted-rates-…

by Pa1nter | 2nd Aug 24, 10:21pm 1722594101

Interesting to read Norway's current fortunes, the only country with a relatively higher OCR hike:

Norway’s economy is slowing as inflation and higher interest rates weigh on consumption and investment. The labour market is tight and wage growth robust, while labour shortages and job mismatches are high and rising. Inflation is falling but still way above the target of 2%. The fiscal stance is expansionary. It should become contractionary to support monetary policy. While Norway is one of the OECD’s most productive countries, productivity growth over the past decade has been weak. Making skills more relevant, notably by strengthening vocational education and training, could help raise productivity and ease tight labour markets.

by TronMVP | 3rd Aug 24, 12:01am 1722600104

Presumably Norway's reserve bank is deliberately slowing the economy with high interest rates, which are deemed necessary because of wage growth and a tight labour market?