A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; Fonterra raises milk payout forecast, retail volumes sink, RBNZ Dashboard data updated, swaps firmish, NZD firmer too, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. Update: Bluestone Mortgages said it was quitting New Zealand, unable to find a workable niche that could meet its scale requirements.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes today here either. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HIGHER MILK PRICES
Fonterra is bullish on the farmgate milk price and annual earnings and said it has raised its 2024/25 forecast farmgate milk price midpoint by +50 cents to $8.50 per kgMS. It also said its earnings will be at the upper end of their guidance range.

BELTS STILL BEING TIGHTENED
Retail sales volumes continued to decline in June quarter. They were sales down -1.2%, down -3.6% from a year ago, extending two-year downward trend in consumer spending. But this was a smaller dip than some analysts were expecting (although to be fair, more than some others). Retailers say they are noticing -$30 bln in lower activity, serious for them.

GRANULAR DETAIL BY BANK
The RBNZ Dashboard data was updated today for the June 2024 quarter. That powers our Key Bank Metrics tool. And that allows you to compare a wide range of key operational and financial measures between banks. For example, it shows NIM detail (net interest margin) by bank, for every quarter since March 2018. Metrics covered are Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Profitability, Balance Sheet, Liquidity, Credit concentration, Leverage and Tax paid, among others. For example it shows both Kiwibank (+$384 mln) and BNZ (+$223 mln) making market share gains in home loan lending in the June quarter from the March quarter, basically at the expense of Westpac (-$378 mln) and ASB (-$106 mln). ANZ also slipped slightly (-$76 mln) on this basis too.

NOT INTERESTED IN FARM LENDING, BUT INTERESTED IN CORPORATES
The Kiwibank CEO doesn't think the bank entering rural banking market would add much. But he also says his bank is getting increasing number of requests to join corporate lending syndicates.

LANDCORP REPORTS RESULT
Pāmu/Landcorp has reported a Net Operating Profit of $20 mln for the year ended June 2024, down from $33 mln in the previous year. "Despite a stronger on-farm performance this year, like other Kiwi farmers, we have had to contend with softening sheep and cattle prices, high interest costs, and the decrease in valuation of farms and buildings, all of which impact profitability," they said.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our new quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. We welcome comments on that update story.

TALLEYS SENSE AN OPPORTUNITY
Synlait Milk's retreat from its North Island investment adventure looks like it will allow Talley's-owned Open Country Dairy to scoop up those assets.

MORE ON KIWISAVER
Investment News released its free KiwiSaver review for the year to March 2023. Although it is slightly dated, there are some interesting insights in here. The RBNZ will report the whole sector FUM for June on Monday.

CLIMBING MARKET SHARE
Globally, China's BYD overtook both Honda and Nissan in Q2-2024 to become the world's seventh-largest carmaker by number of cars sold, boosted by demand for its affordable range of EVs.

MODEST JAPANESE INFLATION EMBEDS
Japanese CPI inflation was at 2.8% in July from a year ago, holding steady for the third straight month while remaining at its highest level since February. Electricity prices jumped, and other fuel costs rose too after the full end of energy subsidies in May. However costs fell for education and communication. Meanwhile, their core inflation rate hit a five-month high of 2.7% in July. Monthly, the CPI rose by +0.2% in July, the least in three months, after a +0.3% gain in June.

AU$¼ BLN EXTRA PENALTY LOAD
In Australia, their prudential regulator APRA has added another AU$250 mln to its existing AU$500 mln operational risk add-on to ANZ's capital requirements as a penalty for deficiencies in its culture and risk governance at the bank.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bps at 5.24%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 3.95%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 2.17%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.27% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.17% and up +1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from yesterday at 3.81%. Their 2yr is now at 3.94%, so that curve has now tightened up, inverted by just -13 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, EXCEPT THE NZX
The NZX50 is up +0.7% in late Friday trade and the best of the markets we follow. The ASX200 is down a minor -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.2%. Hong Kong is down -0.8% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore is unchanged at its open. The S&P500 ended its Thursday session on Wall Street down -0.9%.

OIL TURNS UP
The oil price is up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$73/bbl in the US, and at just on US$76.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
Today the carbon price dipped by a marginal -25c today, now at $59.75/NZU today. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$12 from yesterday, now at US$2489/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at 61.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up another +10 bps from yesterday at 69.6.

BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price is up +1.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$60,735. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.

USE OF AI
No articles on this news service are produced with AI. Occasionally we use AI to derive images. They are always identified in the attribution.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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