A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; many second-tier rate changes, Fast Track focus, AA Insurance slapped, grocery price pressure eases, swaps & NZD on hold, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ICBC cut rates today, including their floating rate. WBS also cut their 1 and 2 year fixed rates. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Investment-grade rated Liberty Financial cut its TD rates hard today, probably a realignment ahead of the upcoming RBNZ Depositor Compensation Scheme which they will no doubt be in. The Police Credit Union also trimmed rates today. China Construction Bank cut TD rates today. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

CONSENTS, YES. BUT STARTING TO BUILD?
55,000 housing units have been included in the weekend-released Fast-track list. A luxury golf course, a ski resort village, and a new roof for Eden Park are all included in the mega-list of projects to be included in the Fast-track Approvals Bill.

'EXPERTS' DIVIDED
Members of the 'Shadow Board' the NZIER assembled to state views on the Official Cash Rate and agree the OCR will be cut this week, but are mixed over whether it should be a 25-point or 50-point cut.

MISREPRESENTATION AT SCALE
AA Insurance has been ordered to pay a penalty of $6.175 mln for failing to apply multi-policy and membership discounts, as well as guaranteed no claims bonuses. The High Court has also found the misled customers about its multi policy discount offer in marketing material and misrepresented that certain eligible customers would receive its guaranteed no claims bonus for life. Justice O’Gorman said: “Customers are entitled to feel secure that insurance premiums will be charged, and discounts applied, in accordance with policy terms and as represented in marketing material. Customers cannot be expected to double check the precise details of transactions. They are entitled to trust the accuracy of their insurer’s systems and processes.”

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Warehouse & FBU make some recover, Gentrack up, Kathmandu down again. Others trumpet Fast Track approval inclusions.

PACE EASING OFF BUT NOT YET BACK TO 'NORMAL'
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets has remained static over the last two months, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index showing an average 2.3% increase in what suppliers charged in September 2024, compared to a year earlier. In September 2023 they rose +6.1%. Prior to 2021 prices were rising less than +2% pa.

STAMPEDE SHORT
The stampede to six-month fixed rate mortgages reaches a crescendo. The latest Reserve Bank figures show that around 40% of new lending in August was for six month fixed rate terms.

SIGNS OF MODERATION?
The September update of the Melbourne Institution inflation gauge is suggesting a quicker easing. It was up +0.1% from the prior month and less than the expected +0.3% rise. And it is now up only +2.6% over the past year.

PUNCH TWO DUE
Climate-change denier state Florida is expected to be hit with another hurricane tomorrow. NOAA says "Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday [EST]." The first punch was Helene. These types of events affect insurers perceptions of risk, worldwide, which in turn affects reinsurance availability and cost, and that flows to retail premiums (and even insurability). This is why "climate change" is both a monetary policy risk, and financial stability risk.

SWAP RATES HOLD, BOND CURVES STEEPER
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today at the short end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 4.78%. That is -47 bps below the OCR and its lowest level in ten months. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +19 bps at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.16%, unsurprising given their holiday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +7 bps from this morning at 4.37%. And the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.33% and up +3 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.84% and up another +5 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is now at 3.69%, so that curve is still positive by +15 bps.

EQUITIES UP EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT HERE
The NZX50 is down -0.6% in its late Monday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in light trade out of Melbourne only. But Tokyo is taking off, up +2.1% at its open. And Hong Kong is up +0.9% at its open. Shanghai is closed today and be back in business tomorrow. Singapore is trading up +0.4% at its open. Wall Street is showing it will open up +0.8% tomorrow via the S&P500 futures trade.

OIL SOFTISH
The oil price is down -50 USc from this morning at just on US$74/bbl in the US, and now just over US$77.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE WAVERS
The carbon price is holding at $63/NZU. Volumes traded are still light and bidding is soft, so the price may not hold up. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$7 from this morning, now at US$2646/oz.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar has held unchanged from this morning's open at 61.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are up a marginal +10 bps at 56.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 69.7 from this morning.

BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is up +1.7% from this morning, now at US$63,803. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».