US earnings results good; China house prices fall; China Q3 expansion misses target; Japanese inflation eases; EU economies going nowhere; UST 10yr 4.08%; gold up and oil down NZ$1 = 60.7 USc; TWI = 69.2

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that gold has topped US$2,700/oz for the first time ever as concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East and a tight US election race prompted some investors to flock to the 'safety' of the yellow metal. But although some did, most have retained their high risk appetites.

However first, there were no surprises in US housing start data for September, coming in just as expected and the general level it has been at for most of 2024.

And Wall Street's Q3 earnings season reporting is building with 14% of S&P500 companies reporting so far, and the results are quite positive, reinforcing investor risk appetites.

China’s new home prices in their 70 major cities fell -5.7% in September from a year ago, more than the -5.3% fall in the previous month. It was the 15th straight month of decrease and the steepest pace since May 2015. Second hand houses seem to have fallen by much more, by -10.7%. This sector won;t be helping China's "wealth effect".

Meanwhile China said its Q3-2024 GDP expanded by +4.6%, marginally better than the +4.5% expected but less than Beijing's 5% target. They also said industrial production improved to +5.4% and retail sales were up 3.2%, on the same basis. Their jobless rate fell slightly, to 5.1%.

Japan said its inflation rate fell to 2.5% in September from 3.0% in August. This was its lowest level since April. (It was also 3.0% in September 2023.)

Malaysian exports slipped slightly in September from August to be unchanged from the same month a year ago. But imports slipped more from the prior month although they are now more than +11% higher than a year ago. That all means their trade surplus fell by more than half in September 2024 from September 2023 and that extends their declining trend that started at the beginning of 2022.

The regular ECB survey of professional forecasters shows that expectations are low for the bloc over the next two years to 2026. They see inflation staying under control, economic expansion rising to only modest levels, and their jobless rate staying little-changed.

In Australia, their Federal Court yesterday ruled Latitude Finance Australia and Harvey Norman engaged in misleading conduct and made false or misleading representations in relation to a widespread advertising campaign for a 60-month interest free and no deposit payment method.

At the other end of the scale, their Fair Work Commission has ruled that a worker fired for repeatedly taunting a colleague over a long period of time and after repeated warnings, was judged to be unfairly dismissed as he was not properly trained in psychosocial safety policies. The aggressive employee was reinstated and compensated. The victim was thrown under the bus by the Commission.

In Canada, after trying to hide from an adverse court ruling by putting their companies into bankruptcy, Philip Morris, British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco will pay C$32 bln to smokers and health departments in Canada under the terms of a settlement put forward by a court mediator. They will continue to sell their addictive products however.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.08% and down -2 bps from yesterday. That is unchanged in a week. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive, and now +11 bps and little-changed. Their 1-5 curve inversion is still inverted by -33 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is slightly deeper at -71 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.34% and up +3 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.09% and little-changed. But a week ago it was at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is still just under 4.46%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and up +7 bps from a week ago.

Wall Street has started today with the S&P500 up +0.5% in Friday trade, up +0.7% for the week. Overnight, European markets were mixed with London down -0.3% and both Frankfurt and Paris up +0.4%. Tokyo was up +0.2% yesterday to end its week down -1.7%. Hong Kong rose +3.6% on the day to end down -2.0% for the week. And Shanghai was up +2.9% to end up +0.6% for the week. Singapore rose +0.4% on Friday. The ASX200 ended its Friday session down -0.9% for a weekly gain of +0.8%. And the NZX50 rose +0.4% on the day for a -0.2% weekly dip.

The Fear & Greed Index ends the week unchanged and still hard over on the 'greed' range, just like last week. Overall markets are still comfortable with their risk appetite and have been for a month now.

The price of gold will start today at US$2717/oz and up +US$27 from this time yesterday - and yet another new all-time high.

Oil prices are -US$1 lower at just over US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$73.50/bbl. These levels are -US$6/bbl lower than a week ago.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.7 USc and and +10 bps firmer from this time yesterday. But that is -½c lower than a week ago.Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we have slipped -10 bps to 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 69.2, unchanged from yesterday at this time but down -10 bps from a week ago.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,847 and up 2.3% from this time yesterday. From a week ago it is up more than +10%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at under +/- 1.7%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».