What happened Thursday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Heartland cuts TD rates, fewer new homes in Auckland, Orr eyes smaller cuts, high mortgage interest burden, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

24th Oct 24, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank trimmed all its term deposit rates for terms of 90 days and longer. AMP followed suit. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

DRYING UP
Fewer new homes are being built in Auckland as building work dries up. Residential construction in Auckland could be on the verge of a significant slump.

SLOWING DOWN
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says they will be more 'circumspect' with reducing interest rates relative to the speed at which they went up, which 'is the general idea'.

CHANGES AHEAD
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NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Tourism Holdings (again) and Infratil lead today; Vista, Mercury and Spark are the laggards.

NEW HOME LOANS RISE STRONGLY
The latest mortgage figures from the Reserve Bank show that on a seasonally adjusted basis mortgage commitments by value rose +6.9% in September.

RECORD HOME LOAN INTEREST BURDEN
In the 90 days to September, mortgage borrowers paid $5.7 bln in interest on their loans which was +24% more than they paid in the September 2023 quarter. In the year to September, they paid $21.5 bln in interest, a third more than the prior year. But the extra didn't all accrue to banks. Most of it was recycled to savers especially in their term deposit accounts (55%). Some went to business depositors (22%), wholesale investors (10%), others (8%), and the smallest portion was retained by banks. So 85%+ of this was likely recycled through the economy. Still, some of the balance would have leaked offshore, and our economy will have noticed that. But we need those overseas investors. If they don't earn an acceptable return here they won't invest, and we won't be able to fund our current account deficit. Then things would be much worse.

VERY FEW ARE DOING IT REALLY TOUGH
Things are probably not too tough for mortgage payers. They still paid $4.2 bln in 'excess repayments' on their loans, over and above the $7.6 bln in scheduled repayments. $4.2 bln is near the top of the range over the past decade. These are quarterly numbers. The annual totals to September are $29.0 bln in scheduled payments, plus another $15.8 bln in 'excess repayments'. At the other end of the scale, 'payment deficiencies' were $815 mln for the year, write-offs just $15 mln. Neither were rising in September. In fact September was the lowest in two and a half years.

GROWTH HARD TO FIND
In Australia, their October PMI survey reveals that their factory sector is at a 53 month low with a moderate contraction. Their services sector however is holding its own - just.

ADAPTION TO INFLATION STILL A STRUGGLE
In Japan the same flash October PMI report shows a contract too in their factory sector, but only a minor one. But output and new order levels slipped at a slightly faster rate. Their services sector isn't expanding either according to this same report, a slip from the prior month. Apparently Japanese businesses are struggling to adapt to their modest inflation pressures.

SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably probably not much-changed at the shorter end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 4.56%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +9 bps at 4.51% in more bond hurt there. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also unchanged from yesterday at 4.57% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.51% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23% and up +3 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is up at 4.05%, so that curve is now positive by +18 bps.

EQUITIES FIRMER, EXCEPT CHINA & WALL STREET
The NZX50 is now up +0.4% in late Thursday trade in building gains. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.3% at its Thursday open. Hong Kong is down -1.3% at its open. Shanghai started down -0.7% at its open. Singapore is trading up +0.2%. Wall Street was weaker by -0.9% on the S&P500 in their Wednesday trade.

OIL STABLE
The oil price is unchanged from this time yesterday at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$75.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE SOFTISH
The carbon price softish today at $62/NZU. There bas been normal to low volumes traded. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$16 from this time yesterday, now at US$2722/oz.

NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. And against the euro we are down -20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down to 68.8.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday, now at US$67,168. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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57 Comments

by Pa1nter | 24th Oct 24, 4:06pm 1729739172

Things are probably not too tough for mortgage payers. They still paid $4.2 bln in 'excess repayments' on their loans, over and above the $7.6 bln in scheduled repayments.

So the opposite of some of the grand prophesies on here.

Dear oh dear.

by J.C. | 24th Oct 24, 4:14pm 1729739644

At a macro level, wouldn't be better for those excess repayments to be spent into the economy P? Paying down debt, even ahead of schedule, may be seen as prudent behavior, but it does have other implications.

by Foxglove. | 24th Oct 24, 4:31pm 1729740691

Would like to see the split on that between owner occupied and the rest. Venture to suggest that with regard to the former it is an almost poignant illustration of just how important it is for a household to own a roof over its head. Governments in the past respected the need for families to achieve home ownership via initiatives such as State Advances, capitalisation of the family benefit, the good number of building societies and the designated savings banks and as well solicitors’ mortgage lending was not uncommon. It didn’t change for the better and government meddling in the housing stock, for example LAQCs, made things harder, not easier. There should have been a continuation of acknowledgment and respect for this basic difference, but there wasn’t.

by JimboJones | 24th Oct 24, 4:35pm 1729740924

But what about all the anecdotes...

by BadRobot | 24th Oct 24, 4:47pm 1729741631

What about them - are they true , can any of them verified or are they just people pushing their own barrow / narrative by " anecdote ".

by Yvil | 24th Oct 24, 4:53pm 1729742002

I have to admit that I certainly wasn't expecting this. I was convinced, that after two years of steeply increasing interest rates, borrowers were going to suffer, a lot. I was wrong.

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Oct 24, 6:32pm 1729747974

I also have to admit there's less distressed mortgages than I predicted. That said, the chances of an abrupt unwind of excesses beyond our shores is increasing and could easily change this. Our country is in a vulnerable state.

by Ahuhyeah | 24th Oct 24, 9:09pm 1729757389

Yep I'm eating humble pie at this point too. I was tracking mortgagee sales on trade me thinking they would rise. Steady in the low 40s listed at any one time most of the year.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Oct 24, 6:37pm 1729748230

The global data is doing a lot of masking here.

Firstly, banks have been shovelling mortgages onto longer-terms - I know several people who have gone from 10 year to 25 year terms (despite being in their 40s and 50s!)

Secondly, people can afford mortgage payments but next to nothing else. Hence demand cratering. Still plenty of downhill left in this cycle.

by J.C. | 24th Oct 24, 6:41pm 1729748473

Secondly, people can afford mortgage payments but next to nothing else. Hence demand cratering.

Yes. I guess the best way to track this would be average share of wallet allocated to mortgage repayments and debt servicing over time among mortgagees.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Oct 24, 8:27pm 1729754838

Yes, we should get some data on that next week when household living cost data comes out. Although it is pretty visible in card spending data tbf.

by HouseMouse | 24th Oct 24, 7:04pm 1729749868

Yeah I was about to say what you said in your final para.

Also factor in that quite a few people with mortgages have quite low levels of debt (less than 250k), which makes them far less affected by skyrocketing mortgage rates.

by Let me be Frank | 24th Oct 24, 8:42pm 1729755756

The question is who are the 'they' and how many of them are there?....the lie of averages (and aggregates) trips up many.

If there is so much capacity within the mortgage market why have sales and prices declined and why has discretionary spending fallen?

Lies, damned lies and .....statistics.

However if you see it differently and are so inclined then buy that 'investment' property....if there are sufficient of that inclination the can may be kicked a little further.

There is one overriding reason central banks have about faced and started dropping rates at an accelerated pace....fear of default.

by J.C. | 24th Oct 24, 4:19pm 1729739965

Insane stats from WSJ. There are 12 million "full-time" influencers in the US - approx 7% of the American workforce. This bubble is unsustainable.

Those at the top of the pile are making out like bandits, but other data I'm privy to suggests approx 50%+ make less than USD10K a year. 33% make $1-2K a year.

Social media pays the bills for millions of Americans. But making a living online is more financially complicated than working a 9-to-5. Influencers need an audience to win advertising deals, and changing what they post risks turning followers away. Couples who showcase their love life online face an existential threat to the family business when they split.

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/relationships/tiktok-influencers-marriage…

by BadRobot | 24th Oct 24, 4:56pm 1729742171

Interesting to see some stats around "influencers" from the US. Is this what the US has become ?

by Yvil | 24th Oct 24, 5:04pm 1729742642

Hey, I'm an "influencer" I write my 2 cents worth on Interest.co.nz. OK, I haven't made any money yet, actually I'm in the negative… LOL

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Oct 24, 5:13pm 1729743205

There's a subtle linguistic difference between effluence and influence - maybe that's the sticking-point?

Then there's the spruikers - guess that's con-fluence.

by Foxglove. | 24th Oct 24, 5:20pm 1729743648

Oh! So here there’s no evidence of the existence of excellence?

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Oct 24, 8:02pm 1729753376

There was ...

by HouseMouse | 24th Oct 24, 6:04pm 1729746280

Talk about bullshit jobs!

by General Comment | 24th Oct 24, 7:12pm 1729750362

As a (small time) beef and crop farmer I find your comment insulting. Bull shit has a level of productive value.

by HouseMouse | 24th Oct 24, 7:31pm 1729751497

Lol

by rastus1 | 24th Oct 24, 11:23pm 1729765411

No more than advertising agencies or or companies. The influencer cuts out the middle men and the exploitation that occurs, particularly with young girls. They control their own career and the top earners make staggering amounts.

They are making a mockery of big spending advertising campaigns and agencies. Mock them if you will, but some very smart kids doing this stuff.

by Rampart | 24th Oct 24, 7:04pm 1729749876

Hawk Tuah girl is worth 16+ million. In less than a year.

by IT GUY | 24th Oct 24, 9:34pm 1729758863

Sucks to not be known

by dumbthoughts | 24th Oct 24, 9:50pm 1729759821

Couple of random thoughts (from somebody who has spent a decent amount of time in his career hiring influencers for various promotions and campaigns)

As JC alludes to, what is the actual distribution of influencer incomes? I'd love to know how it varies by platform and content niche as well. I would imagine the vast majority of influencers earn very little.
I recall some time ago the IRD making noise about taxing free gifts provided to influencers as income (I personally know some influencers - mainly 'mommy vlogger' types - who make next to nothing in terms of cash but are gifted everything from free car leases, to free travel, to free clothes, to free meals and drinks) That would put the kibosh on a lot of influencer activity.
Not enough noise is made about the extent to which viewership, engagement etc is faked by many social platforms and influencers.

by J.C. | 24th Oct 24, 4:28pm 1729740509

Lord Orr on CNBC. His time in the sun. So he reckons 'inflation has been beaten' and things are looking rosy in Aotearoa.

His views on inflation are in stark contrast to Tudor Jones and Druckenmiller. Perhaps we're different.

Place your bets.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/23/rbnz-governor-strongly-believe-ou…

by ChrisOfNoFame | 25th Oct 24, 11:04am 1729807472

Until the next energy shock ... and then we do the dance all over again.

by JimboJones | 24th Oct 24, 4:34pm 1729740890

"Residential construction in Auckland could be on the verge of a significant slump." - off to a great start Chris Bishop

by Foxglove. | 24th Oct 24, 4:39pm 1729741191

Extraordinary. Such devastation introduced and implemented in less than a year.

by HouseMouse | 24th Oct 24, 4:47pm 1729741628

Nothing to do with Bishop. And weren’t you mocking my prediction of a big slump 1-2 years ago?

by Yvil | 24th Oct 24, 5:02pm 1729742537

Indeed, the slowdown has nothing to do with Bishop.

And yes, you have been warning about a slowdown in construction for quite some time.

by JimboJones | 24th Oct 24, 5:05pm 1729742739

"the slowdown has nothing to do with Bishop" - the slowdown was happening before he was elected. But what has he done to prevent it?

We are still in the cycle of National not investing when they should, and Labour having to invest when they shouldn't.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Oct 24, 5:15pm 1729743340

No, JJ, we are not 'in the cycle'.

This is a one-off event. It can never happen again.

Overshooting Earth's Boundaries | Bill Rees - YouTube

Make the time to bother to watch. And learn.

by JimboJones | 24th Oct 24, 5:23pm 1729743809

We are in the cycle. There are plenty of tradies free right now to build some houses, they just need someone (e.g. the government) to want houses to be built. The next part of the cycle is that they all bugger off to Aus, and the final part is that Labour get elected and try and build houses but there are no tradies anywhere.

by J.C. | 24th Oct 24, 5:30pm 1729744212

Perhaps Japan could take them in. They currently facing a significant shortage of workers, particularly in skilled trades. This labor shortage is projected to worsen, with estimates suggesting that by 2035, Japan will experience a deficit of approximately 3.84 million workers—equivalent to 17.75 million hours of work per day.

https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2024101700906/

by IT GUY | 24th Oct 24, 9:52pm 1729759979

All cycles are different, some long some short. I do not think its clear how this cycle will fan out, but debt is blowing out everywhere, normally implies people want a return on there money as more debt consumers then issuers... ie higher rates demanded by those who have cash. So even though countries have OCRs and govies, others have to borrow above that in general.

The NZ housing cycle is a diversion from the commodities and debt super cycle. Though higher neutral rates will dampen capital gain expectations.

by HouseMouse | 24th Oct 24, 6:08pm 1729746498

How can he ‘prevent it’ when it was already underway? You mean mitigate it or stem it? I guess he is trying, with the underwrite, fast track etc. But all take time to enact and set up.

I am no fan of the National Party. I am also no fan of nonsensical commentary.

by JimboJones | 24th Oct 24, 5:03pm 1729742590

I never mocked it at all, it was obviously going to happen. I simply pointed out that it was taking much longer than you or I predicted. I often said I was surprised that anyone was starting new building projects.

But what has Bishop done to prevent it? Where is the big state housing build to take up the slack?

by HouseMouse | 24th Oct 24, 6:19pm 1729747153

Big state house building? That’s what I was saying to government officials was needed in early 2023 (I was talking more about planning a massive housing programme for FHBs, rather than social housing). The Labour government were still in power. They were already pulling back on state house building plans. Their officials told me with a straight face consents would drop back 10-15%. Not 40%, which is what I told them. So they obviously didn’t think it woukd happen. Or were just full of spin.

by Silvi | 24th Oct 24, 5:28pm 1729744135

Not in our neck of the woods.

by Foxglove. | 24th Oct 24, 5:35pm 1729744554

Process is, land first, building second. Where again is Ihumatao ?

by Yvil | 24th Oct 24, 4:57pm 1729742223

Mortgage commitments by value rose +6.9% in September.

Unbelievable, at the first sign of lower interest rates, borrowing goes up.

by tomjones_04 | 24th Oct 24, 5:47pm 1729745267

It is unbelievable. Why would you pile into residential real estate when the returns are so terrible? Oh that's right, kiwis know of nothing else. I would be keeping my powder dry for now, but hey...I've never been one for FOMO.

by NZGecko | 24th Oct 24, 6:00pm 1729746043

Exactly TJ,

Why in the last moments of a 1929 style everything boom......pile in.

Why would you.

by HouseMouse | 24th Oct 24, 6:21pm 1729747309

Yep the cultural love of kiwis for housing is an undeniable thing

by bw | 24th Oct 24, 7:16pm 1729750589

And perhaps not quite on song, but speaking of culture, love (or lack thereof), housing and perhaps also Kiwis (?), we are reminded today of another impact of generational ageing.

"Every year, thousands of mostly middle-aged men die quietly and alone. It sometimes takes days or even weeks before their bodies are found. South Korea isn’t alone in fighting this battle, an issue so pressing the government is pulling out all the stops to fight it. Japan, where the trend was first recognized, appointed a Minister of Loneliness and Isolation in 2021. Other countries, including the United Kingdom, have similarly appointed Ministers of Loneliness. The United States Surgeon General warned of an “epidemic of loneliness and isolation” in a 2023”

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/24/asia/south-korea-loneliness-deaths-i…

by Yvil | 25th Oct 24, 9:06am 1729800383

I hope you are OK bw. I notice constant negative comments from you recently. If you're struggling, reach out to someone you know, and share the load.

by peter.may | 25th Oct 24, 10:06am 1729803990

Tj , I am a builder . I am finishing costing a duplex which looks like a gross return of 8.2%. So while its certainly not true for all - there are very good opportunities out there.

by J.C. | 24th Oct 24, 6:37pm 1729748277

On top of ratty and gold ETFs, Smartshares have just announced two more offerings:

Smart S&P/NZX 20 ETF (NZT): Invests in New Zealand shares and is designed to track the return of the S&P/NZX 20 Gross with Imputation Index.

Smart US Technology (NZD Hedged) ETF (UST): Invests in US shares and is designed to track the return of the S&P 500 Capped 35/20 Information Technology Index (100% NZD Hedged).

by Justa comment | 24th Oct 24, 7:22pm 1729750957

The 5 and 10 year bond rates are really interesting at the moment, and what is occurring in the US bond market right now. On top of that Orrs comments last night which basically said 0.75 is not going to happen at the next meeting. We are going to get the pullback in rates next year but 2027 onwards looks interesting. A lot of demand could appear from other parts of the world as their populations grow, and our economy could rebound quite quickly when the OCR gets back to 3.5% and less.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Oct 24, 8:09pm 1729753771

Surplus Energy Economics | The home of the SEEDS economic model – Tim Morgan

Your evening's homework.

I can help with the next class...

Overshooting Earth's Boundaries | Bill Rees

Sheesh, to hear endless growth being spouted at this late stage in the human irruption...

by HouseMouse | 24th Oct 24, 8:53pm 1729756393

This, from Maccy B, is the sort of thing you will never find in this country - insightful analysis on the construction sector and development economics. Apartment prices need to rise 15% to make constructing them viable, given soaring construction costs. So wave good bye to much in the way of apartment construction over the next few years.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/10/australians-cannot-afford-to-l…

by IT GUY | 24th Oct 24, 9:45pm 1729759512

I suggest this same dynamic is playing out all over the Anglo world right now.

They are in even bigger poop if people cannot afford built apartments at current levels.

by HouseMouse | 24th Oct 24, 9:35pm 1729758937

Filled up the car with 91 for $2.22 a litre today. Felt like it was back in 2019

by IT GUY | 24th Oct 24, 9:47pm 1729759647

was that Gulf Hampton downs price ...

by IT GUY | 24th Oct 24, 9:58pm 1729760294

US Election gets dirty

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/23/donald-trump-accuser-st…

plagiarism vs sexism and misogyny

getting popcorn and looking at betting odds.