Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank added +20 bps to its six month TD offer, 5.45% until November 25, but it took off -25 bps from its one year rate. More here. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RECORD HIGH INDICATED
Lower-than-expected Chinese milk production is putting a rising floor under the key WMP price, allowing Fonterra to raise its 2024/25 payout forecast. Today, it raised its mid-point forecast to $9.50/kgMS which, if it holds, will be a record high. They did this by narrowing the range and raising it from $8.25 - $9.75 per kgMS to $9.00 - $10.00 per kgMS. A number of other daily companies are committed to paying a premium over Fonterra. You can see the full industry levels here. This latest Fonterra move is now higher than every main dairy analyst.
SEASONAL UPTICK
Residential auction activity continues to increase with the season as the market heads towards the pre-Christmas rush. More properties are being auctioned and 42% are selling under the hammer.
DOWNWARD TREND
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets (New World, Pak'nSave, 4-Square, Gilmours, Liquorland) moderated further in October, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index showing an average +2.0% increase in what suppliers charged in October 2024, compared to a year earlier. The last time it was this low was in September 2021.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATES
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Vulcan Steel, The Warehouse, and Manawa Energy all rise, but swamped by declines led by a2Milk, Freightways, and Kathmandu among others.
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NEEDED
An influential RBNZ survey (M14) has perhaps surprisingly shown a small rise in the expectations of future inflation though most picks are still somewhere around the desired 2% level. More here.
GOING FOR A HUGE FUNDING OPPORTUNITY
BNZ has launched a 5 year retail bond offer today with the option to accept up to $1 bln. The Retail Offer opened today, and is expected to close at 11 am on Wednesday, November 13, 2024. These are Fixed Rate Notes and will mature on November 19, 2029 , launched with an indicative margin of 0.88 – 0.93% per annum. In addition, BNZ also launched a wholesale only offer of up to $100 mln of a new series of unsecured unsubordinated floating rate 3 year notes to certain institutional investors only.
EITHER WAY, THEY ARE SELLING
Fonterra said it will go ahead with plans to sell its consumer businesses, including household name brands such as Anchor and Mainland. They are running a 'dual track' process, to either float the parts to be divested in an NZX listing, or sell them in a trade sale. Some analysts reckon up to $3 bln could be released back to its farmer/shareholders. The FCG share price jumped +6.1% today. The FSF price is up +2.2%.
SWAP RATES SETTLE
Wholesale swap rates are probably not moving around much today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 4.47%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps from this morning to 4.63%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.12%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.71% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.64% and down -2 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34% and up +3 bps from this morning. Their 2yr is still at 4.25%, so that curve is now less positive, now by +9 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, EXCEOPT WALL STREET
The NZX50 is down -0.6% in Monday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a -0.2% slip. Hong Kong is down -2.5% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore is up +0.5%. Wall Street will likely open tomorrow at a new record high because the S&P500 futures suggest it will best Friday's intra-day top of 6010 and open up +0.5%.
OIL LITTLE-CHANGED
The oil price is little-changed from this morning, still just on US$70/bbl in the US, and just on US$73.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
The carbon price is little-changed again today, very marginally softer at $63.50/NZU in moderate trade. Volumes are light however. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$13 from this morning's open, now at US$2671/oz.
NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this morning's open, still at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we holding at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are little-changed at 55.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 68.7.
BITCOIN MOVES HIGHER
The bitcoin price has risen a strong +5.8% from this morning, now at US$81,198. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.3%.
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