A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; population growth slows, dairy prices rise, payout forecasts rise, debt stress eases slightly, swaps softish again, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

POPULATION UPDATE
At 30 September 2024, the estimated resident population was 5,348,600. That is a gain in the year of +64,800 or +1.2% made up of a 'natural increase' (plus births, less deaths) of +19,900, plus net migration of +44,900. The median age is now 38.1 years, essentially unchanged since late 2021. When migration is low, our population ages much quicker than when migration levels are high.

DAIRY PRICES LOOK PROMISING
Chinese buyers bought more than half (55%) of all product at today's dairy auction (especially WMP). This is unusual in recent context because it has recently been just over 40%, so a sudden shift. Low raw milk prices in China is discouraging production there and combined with very low powder stocks, there has been a clear shift to build back their imports. WMP prices rose +3.5%, but cheese prices were weak today. The overall GDT gain was +1.9% in USD, +3.2% in NZD. A good result that maintains recent momentum. Farm gate payout forecasts have firmed with these results. ASB raised its forecast to $9.75 matching the recent BNZ update. Westpac has gone one further to $10/kgMS - and said there is upside from here. More here. Histories and updated forecast levels are here.

DAIRY VOLUMES LOOK PROMISING TOO
Overall dairy herd milk production is up and remember this is the heart of the  2024/2025 dairy season.

COUNCILS ALLOWED TO INCREASE BORROWING
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says the Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) will now lend to councils with leverage of up to 350%, an increase from the previous limit of 280%.  The Government's also set to increase LGFA’s liquidity facility. The LGFA is 80% owned by councils, and 20% by the Crown, and has an AAA credit rating from S&P.

$360 INCREASE OVER 5 YEARS COMING
Commerce Commission says higher electricity bills will be needed to help fund maintenance and upgrade of the electricity network. They say the average household faces electricity bill increases of about $360 over 5 years to pay for the upgrades.

NO MORE DEBT STRESS, MAYBE LESS OVERALL
Credit reporting bureau Equifax said October home loan arrears were unchanged in the month and still very low. Car loan arrears dipped in the month as did arrears for personal loans, although they remain elevated. Credit card arrears fell for a fifth straight month and are back to the same level of a year ago.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Genesis Energy, Sky Network, EBOS, and the NZX have the biggest gains with Fletcher Building, Mercury Energy, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, and Kathmandu leading the decliners.

BETTER SITUATION
We make a big deal of it when prices leap, so to be fair we should also note that the wholesale electricity situation is now in much better shape. Hydro lakes are full, wind and geothermal plants are contributing better than usual, and the thermal backups are all but shut down. But also, demand is breaking any records, so that is helping keep prices down.

A LOT OF LITTLE MAKES A LOT
Givealittle is a New Zealand charity whose platform hosted the raising of $33 mln in 391,000 donations for 11,000 causes in 2023/2024. Perpetual Guardian formally owns the platform (prior to 2020 it was the Spark Foundation), and it is run (effectively) on a shoestring of just 12 dedicated people (about the same number as interest.co.nz).

MORE TRADE
After the unexpected September dip, Japanese exports rose again in October even if the rise of +3.1% from a year ago was less than the rises they had in 2024 to August. Imports rose too, but even more modestly (+0.4%). 

NO CHANGE TO THE NOVEMBER CHINESE LPRs
The Chinese central bank left its November Loan Prime Rates unchanged at the new lower October levels of 3.10% for the one year LPR, and 3.60% for the five year LPR.

PAYROLL VALUES RISE FAST IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, employers paid more than AU$103.7 bln in wages and salaries in the September month, up +6.3% from a year ago, and the first time it has exceeded AU$100 bln an any month. It part of a longer trend and is up +14.1% from September 2022 levels.

SWAP RATES SOFT AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably a tad lower again today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 4.40%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is also down -2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.60%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp to just on 2.10%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.74% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.67% and down -5 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39% and down -2 bps. Their 2yr is down -1 bp to 4.27%, so that curve is still positive by about +12 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is down -0.7% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a -0.4% softening. And Hong Kong is down -0.2% as is Shanghai. Singapore is down -0.2% as well. Wall Street closed its Tuesday session with a +0.4% gain, the only one to do so among the equity markets we follow.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at US$69/bbl in the US, and at just over US$73/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
The carbon price is moribund again today because there doesn't appear to be any trades, holding at $63.80/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$21 from this time yesterday, now at US$2637/oz.

NZD FIRMS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday, now at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. And against the euro we are up +20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.7.

BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price has risen +1.1% from this time yesterday, now at US$92,025. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest also at just under +/- 1.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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