A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; bitcoin approaches US$100K, NZX sparkles, Landcorp sees better results, NZOnAir releases $11.5 mln, swaps softish, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No other bank has formally reacted yet to BNZ's sharp cutting of its popular 6 month rate. But app offers are changing. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

BITCOIN ON ANOTHER RUN UP
The bitcoin price seems almost certain to break through the US$100,000 level this weekend. And when it does it will push through the NZ$170,000 level too. It has risen +35% since the start on the month, and is up +132% since the start of 2024. The previous peak prior to 2024 was US$67,633 in November 2021. Interestingly, you can only "get rich" with crypto when you convert it back into a fiat currency, so you can use it. (Like gold, although gold also has industrial, jewellery, and dental uses.)

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. The NZX50 hit a two year high gaining +2.0% led by a2 Milk, Investore Property, F&P Healthcare, with Fletcher Building and Oceania, Kathmandu, & The Warehouse leading the decliners.

BETTER PROFITS (?)
Pāmu Farms/Landcorp has updated its forecast net operating profit for the year ending 30 June 2025. It now expects full-year net operating profit of between $25 to $40 mln. This compares to the previous forecast of $8 mln in its Statement of Corporate Intent. Higher milk production, higher dairy prices, and firmer US beef prices are behind the improvement. Pāmu/Landcorp has assets of $2.2 bln so if it achieves the upper end of its new indicated range that would be a return on assets of 1.8% and a return on equity of 2.5%.

WHERE YOUR TAX MONEY GOES
NZOnAir has today committed $11.5 mln in funding to 20 local Non-Fiction projects, three-quarters of those being returning series. Included in that was $3.2 mln for TVNZ, $2.1 mln for NZME, $1.8 mln for WB/Discovery (TV3), $1.7 mln for Stuff, $955,000 for Newsroom, $448,000 for RadioNZ, and $300,000 for iwi radio.

MONETARY POLICY INEFFECTIVE IN CHINA
A leading Chinese economist says looser monetary policy on its own is unlikely to save China from its current economic woes. He says monetary policy only has a limited ability to achieve the rise in inflation needed to reduce real borrowing costs and restore confidence amongst Chinese businesses and households, arguing for fiscal policy to play a greater role. (Right-click on the link after opening it, then use the translate option, to read his analysis.)

CHANGING POSITIONS
There will be a federal election mid next year in Australia. More analysts are now thinking Australia actually won't get an RBA policy rate cut before then because the inflation outlook doesn't look too bright. But we will with the RBNZ almost certain to cut -50 bps next Wednesday. That would make the 'score' Australia = 4.35%, New Zealand = 4.25% and apart from the pandemic period, it would be the first time our policy rate was lower than the Aussies since 2013. (Interestingly there are some outlier voices thinking/pricing Wednesday's shift here could be -75 bps.)

COMMISSIONS REDUCED
And staying in Australia, mortgage broker Lendi is cutting commissions for its own franchisee/brokers in a sign of what may be to come for the mortgage broking industry. Lendi has CBA, ANZ’s external venture capital venture, and Macquarie Bank as major shareholders. Expect to see the trend spread.

MARKETS RELY ON HONEST TRADING
In India, Adani Enterprises stock lost -23% yesterday on the corruption allegations, but that is just the latest in a six month decline of -30%. In January 2023 US analyst Hindenburg shorted the company after discovering dodgy reporting in July, also alleging corruption. Since then, their stock has fallen -43%.

SWAP RATES STILL SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably a bit softer again today at the short end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down another -1 bp at 4.38%. (Please note that the RBNZ is delaying the release of this data by one day, due to rights issues with the source, the NZFMA. The delay will start on Monday, November 25, 2024.) The Australian 10 year bond yield is -1 bp softer from this time yesterday to 4.62%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.08%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.75% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.71% and unchanged from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42% and up +2 bps. Their 2yr is up +3 bps to 4.34%, so that curve is still positive but now only by +8 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER, LED BY THE NZX50
The NZX50 is up +1.9% in late Thursday trade, and still rising. The ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a +0.8% recovery. But Hong Kong is down -0.1% and Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore however is up +0.4%. Wall Street closed its Thursday session up +0.5%.

OIL PRICE RISES
The oil price is up +US$1.50 from this time yesterday, now at US$70.50/bbl in the US, and at just over US$74.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
The carbon price is moribund again today because there doesn't appear to be any trades, holding at $63.80/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$25 from this time yesterday, now at US$2678/oz.

NZD SLIPS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down another -30 bps from yesterday, now at 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 89.8 AUc. And against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.2 and down -30 bps.

BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price has risen +3.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$98,354. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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