A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no significant retail interest rate changes, retail sales dip, trade deficit narrows, tractors shunned, NIM circus starts, swaps soft, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society trimmed its 1 year fixed rate today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga BS also cut its 1 year TD rate. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SLOW STEADY DECLINE
Residential construction in Auckland is facing a steady decline rather than a sudden crash - so far, at least.

RETAIL SALES FLATTEN OUT
Stats NZ figures show that seasonally adjusted retail sales by volume decreased by -0.1% in the September quarter, but the figures were down -2.8% on the volumes recorded for the same quarter in 2023, down -1.7% if you exclude car sales.

"PROGRESS" DESPITE BIG AIRCRAFT PAYMENT
In October, compared with to the same month a year ago, merchandise goods exports rose by +$400 mln or +7.5% to $5.8 bln for the month. Imports also rose, by +$211 mln or +3.0%, to $7.3 bln. That means we have an October trade deficit of -$1.5 bln, down from -$1.7 bln in 2023. It would have been $300 mln better if AirNZ didn't buy a $300 mln aircraft. And that took the 12 month trade deficit to just under -$9 bln. And that annual level is the lowest since 2022.

AN UNWANTED 25 YEAR RECORD
For most months of 2024, tractor sales have been running -20% lower than year ago monthly levels. In October 2024, that was only 198 new tractors sold nationwide. And, even including the pandemic years, that was the skinniest October since 1999. In that quarter century, the average October level was 310 per month, with the best being 404 in 2017.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. NZX50 up for yet another new recent record high, led by Turners and some gentailers. Dragging however were Oceania, Hallensteins, and Spark

A LATE MOVER
Synlait has raised its forecast payout level to $9.50, matching the Fonterra mid-point level. Details of payout levels from all dairy companies are here.

MILK PRODUCTION TURNS UP
Incremental monthly milk flows are turning higher. They have been declining since 2021, but the recent improvements, undoubtedly built on favourable weather conditions, are now at their best annualised levels since 2022. Having said that, they are unlikely to better those earlier years when the 2024/25 season is all in.

ASB ESTABLISHES GENERAL MANAGER OF CLIMATE TRANSITION ROLE
ASB says Sam Friggens, who joined from consultancy Mott MacDonald, started in the newly established role of General Manager of Climate Transition at the bank on October 29. Friggens is working alongside ASB General Manager of Corporate Sustainability Robbie Falconer and its Head of Sustainable Finance James Paterson, focusing on developing climate transition products, supporting customers with climate transition, and building up climate and clean tech capability within ASB, the bank says.

MTF REBRAND
MTF, formerly known as Motor Trade Finance, has rebranded itself with the tagline "your local money experts." MTF now offers personal and business, as well as vehicle loans, plus a mortgage advice product. Its receivables have reached $1.1 billion. 

NIM CIRCUS STARTS
The latest industry NIM summary& (net interest margin) from the RBNZ for the September quarter sees it falling by -1 bps to 2.34% from the June quarter. That is back to the same level it was a year ago. We will get the individual bank NIMs in the next RBNZ Dashboard release which is due out tomorrow. And that will reveal the frustrating differences between what the banks themselves tell "the public", and what they tell the RBNZ. Chief culprits in these differences are Westpac and ASB.

SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably a bit softer again today at the short end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is probably down about -5 bps today to 4.33%. (Please note that the RBNZ is delaying the release of this data by one day, due to rights issues with the source, the NZFMA. The delay will started today.) The Australian 10 year bond yield is -3 bps lower from this morning to 4.54%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.08%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.65% while the earlier RBNZ fix was probably at 4.66% and down -5 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.35% and down a sharpish -6 bps. Their 2yr is also at 4.35%, so that positive curve has now vanished.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER, LED BY THE NZX50
The NZX50 is up +0.7% in late Monday trade, and a new all-time high. The ASX200 is also up +0.7% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a +1.6% gain. But Hong Kong is essentially unchanged and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore however is up +0.2%. Wall Street weekend futures trading suggests the S&P500 will open tomorrow up +0.7%.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price is unchanged from this time morning, still at US$71/bbl in the US, and at just over US$75/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price fell today. After ending Friday at $63.90/NZU, it is trading back at US$63/NZU today. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD STARTS LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$16 from this morning, now at US$2699/oz.

NZD RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar is back up +40 bps from this morning, now at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 89.7 AUc. And against the euro we are still at 56 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.5 and up +25 bps.

BITCOIN RISES SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price has risen +1.1% from when we opened this morning, now at US$97,275 Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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