What happened Thursday, abridged

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; milk payout prices up, construction weak, housing 'holding', Crown accounts drag, NZGB tender get high demand, swaps stable, NZD holds, & more

5th Dec 24, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). This is an abridged report.

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
TSB and ICBC cut some fixed rates. Basecorp cut its floating rate. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank, TSB and ICBC all cut some shorter rates today. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FONTERRA TO PAY MORE
Fonterra raised its farmgate milk payout forecast to a mid-point of $10/kgMS ($$9.50-$10.50).

ANZ RAISES FORECAST
ANZ also raised its milk payout forecast to $9.85/kgMS.

WEAK CONTRUCTION SECTOR
Construction activity fell -3.2% in volume terms in the September quarter compared to the June quarter, with falls in both residential and commercial building. September's fall was more pronounced than expected. In value terms, residential building was -11.8% lower than a year ago, and non-residential construction was +1.5% higher on that same basis.

"HOLDING PATTERN" EUPHEMISM FOR "LOWER"
The housing market is in a holding pattern, CoreLogic says, with different factors pushing the market in opposite directions. Median dwelling values have been down for nine consecutive months now, they say.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
There is no separate report today. The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade.

BNZ EXECUTIVE, AND ROLE, DEPARTING
BNZ says Brigid Gibson, its Executive for Transformation and Delivery, will leave the bank on March 13 next year with Gibson's position not being replaced.

GOVT ACCOUNTS DRAG
The Crown financial statements for the four months ended 31 October 2024 were released today, showing a slightly worse operating/OBEGAL balance track than forecast.

NZGB TENDER RESULT
There was $500 mln raised in three maturities today in a NZGB bond tender. Details here. In each case yields fell from the prior equivalent event. Demand exceeded $1.3 bln

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today. Most analysts don't see them falling much from here. Our chart below will record the final positions. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate has fallen again, another -2 bps, to a new all-time low of 1.97%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.50% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.40% and also down -1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19% and down -3 bps. Their 2yr is now at 4.14%, so that positive curve is still +5 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has fallen -0.2% in late trade today. The ASX200 was up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.6% at their open. Hong Kong is down -1.2% at its open and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is starting up +0.9%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session up +0.6% on the S&P500.

OIL FALLS
The oil price is down -US$1.50 from yesterday, now at US$68.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$72.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE SETTLES
The carbon price is minorly softer today at US$63.35/NZU after yesterday's government auction. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5 from this time yesterday, now at US$2645/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from where were this time yesterday, still at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.2 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.4 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price has risen to US$99,967 and up +2.7% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.4%.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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115 Comments

by lonewolfnz | 5th Dec 24, 4:02pm 1733367765

Wowsers. $100k bitcoin.

What a ride

by Rampart | 5th Dec 24, 4:10pm 1733368219

That’s the real headline. BTC has the shackles off now.

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 4:04pm 1733367868

Merry Xmas Lone wolf😉

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 4:33pm 1733369629

Game Theory kicks in..ironic the interest.co. team are out off the office.

Anyone still struggling with what's going on - here is a 4 min clip

https://youtu.be/imY4ISqgH-Q?si=7X54MUPinZkLs7UX

I'm enjoying a delicious beer at the beach myself 🍺

by Roger the dodger | 5th Dec 24, 6:09pm 1733375386

So game theory is FOMO.

Gotcha.

by J.C. | 5th Dec 24, 5:28pm 1733372894

Wowsers. $100k bitcoin.

Yessir. The The level of degeneracy about to be unleashed will be epic.

by LASSET | 5th Dec 24, 4:17pm 1733368667

Yup I must admit, I didn’t have both Vladimir Putin and Jerome Powell capitulating on Bitcoin on my bingo card this morning. The market clearly didn’t either, given the quick run up from 94-103k (and climbing)

Putin – “Bitcoin. Who can prohibit it? Nobody. No matter what happens to the dollar, these tools will develop, one way or another, as everyone seeks to lower costs and improve reliability.”

Powell – “Bitcoin is like gold, it's just like gold, only it's virtual, it’s digital.” “It's not a competitor for the dollar; it's really a competitor for gold.”

by IT GUY | 5th Dec 24, 5:00pm 1733371216

Not a lot of holding cost and you can invest as much or as little as you want to buy... got to love it.

Starting to think its a CIA Plot.

by J.C. | 5th Dec 24, 5:30pm 1733373050

Yup I must admit, I didn’t have both Vladimir Putin and Jerome Powell capitulating on Bitcoin on my bingo card this morning.

Poots does not surprise me. Russia has understood ratty much more than Western suburbanites as it relates to monetary hegemony.

Powell is a surprise.

Lord Orr still seems to be with the normies.

by Dgm | 5th Dec 24, 4:21pm 1733368906

Spruikers will claim the housing market is in a holding pattern, but the reality is it's still downhill

by RookieInvestor | 5th Dec 24, 4:40pm 1733370054

if that is the case, everyone except you is spruiking.

by Retired-Poppy | 5th Dec 24, 6:28pm 1733376534

.....and the votes are in.

by LASSET | 5th Dec 24, 4:32pm 1733369547

I've seen every big price milestone since it broke $100USD per bitcoin.

$1,000, $10,000 and now $100,000. There's no pyschological barriers left now until we reach $1,000,000. I have absolutely zero doubt this will happen now.

by solardb | 5th Dec 24, 6:20pm 1733376053

Wait till all the sell above100k orders kick faster than you can blink

by LASSET | 5th Dec 24, 6:44pm 1733377461

I don’t think so. 15 yrs to go from 0 to 100k. The next 100k will take less than a year.

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 6:47pm 1733377658

You think the pool of "fools" will double in that time?

by JimboJones | 5th Dec 24, 6:51pm 1733377889

The size of the pool doesn’t need to double, the amount they will foolishly pay does.

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 6:55pm 1733378145

Lol..wake me up when one of the cryptos raises an army

by LASSET | 5th Dec 24, 10:01pm 1733389311

If you still think that’s how this works, you need to look elsewhere for the fool.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 6:53pm 1733377993

Smart money has been selling just under $100k. (If it breaks 100k - some will 'top up; after that. How many? Probably not many. But it will rise above 100k again ... When? I don't know.)

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 8:20pm 1733383220

Yes you don't know...

by JimboJones | 5th Dec 24, 6:48pm 1733377704

Of course it will. Once the whole world realises that there is no need to work and we can all be rich from Bitcoin it will go to infinity. We can all sit around and say how rich we are - until we die of starvation since no one needs to produce anything anymore.

by solardb | 5th Dec 24, 6:53pm 1733377983

The ratio of speculators to workers changing ever faster.

by Galloleous | 5th Dec 24, 11:57pm 1733396261

See thats where your wrong. You can not acquire Bitcoin unless you have produced something of value so that you have money to save.

Now that it is at 100k that legitimizes it even more. And with all the good news this year we are only getting started.

Hey we try to educate you guys and willing provide the resources for you to DYOR, but if you are too lazy then thats on you. If your over 30 you will probably be able to live out your life without worrying about it, but under...

by interesting1234 | 6th Dec 24, 6:59am 1733421546

See thats where your wrong. You can not acquire Bitcoin unless you have produced something of value so that you have money to save.

incorrect. See here;

”On average, mining 1 BTC consumes around 6,400,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity…The electricity needed to mine 1 Bitcoin could power 61 U.S. homes for a whole year.“

It takes energy and that comes from somewhere

by Foxglove. | 5th Dec 24, 4:29pm 1733369341

Assume the departing executive at the BNZ, as mentioned, has transformed and delivered, hence no need for replacement?

by Eschaton | 5th Dec 24, 4:47pm 1733370474

BTC "It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Read the white paper.

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 24, 4:48pm 1733370485

‘September’s fall was more pronounced than expected’

Expected by whom?

by Advisor | 5th Dec 24, 5:09pm 1733371785

Plenty more to come. Housing is inextricably linked to economic sentiments, regardless of all the denial from speculators.

Shamubeel Eaqub recently posted that spending per person in NZ just hit 2016 levels. That's a 30-35% drop in spending on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Even if the economy turns positive today, it could take several months for households to rebuild a secure financial position before they start consuming again.

The real question is what other than interest rate cuts is going on that could improve our macroeconomic situation?

by IT GUY | 5th Dec 24, 5:26pm 1733372763

The other real question is will Trump hurt our position....

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 24, 6:06pm 1733375179

To answer your question- nothing!

edit - weaker dollar might help exporters a bit

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 4:49pm 1733370573

David, You and all your team are doing an immeasurably beneficial thing for NZ Inc. Enjoy your 1/2 day off and know that many of us are with you in spirit. Christmas is a time for reflection. (Just quietly, when it is freezing cold outside the quality may be better. At least, that's my experience.)

Merry Christmas to you, your team, and all helping (and suffering) to make interest.co.nz great.

by Wrong John | 5th Dec 24, 4:50pm 1733370610

Still have a bit of bitcoin. A JV with my son. God help us both.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 5:06pm 1733371606

Hey, J.C.

Just raided every single wallet that may contain any BTC and sold them all. (There weren't many. We did have a lot of wallets!)

All of them, we mined. I've bought none, ever. In the early day we spent everyone single one to ensure the 'market' had plenty. At that time - they were unique. Now?

Tell me, what are they 'worth'? What value do they actually have?

by lonewolfnz | 5th Dec 24, 5:19pm 1733372376

Well according to the IRD they will have a value of around NZD $170k each! Like Jerome Powell said, like gold but virtual

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 5:22pm 1733372541

A lifeboat for many Chris...

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 5:59pm 1733374762

No. I expect crypto to be set of concrete boots for 'many'.

It's basically a currency after all. And it is backed by - to put it bluntly - jack shit. Hopium is not an investment currency.

by J.C. | 5th Dec 24, 6:10pm 1733375454

And it is backed by - to put it bluntly - jack shit. Hopium is not an investment currency.

I think you still need 1000 hours+ to confirm this for yourself.

by powerdownkiwi | 5th Dec 24, 6:17pm 1733375870

He's right it's backed by jack shit.

Just like keystroke-issued, fiat-levered (off a notion) conventional proxy.

The Ponzi is universal, proxies are bluffing each other under a lowering ceiling.

Funny to watch one diss the other...

by IT GUY | 5th Dec 24, 6:57pm 1733378247

Its not even printed, it gets created then traded as 1's and 0's on SSD drives raided in configurations so they cannot be "lost".

Wait a minute.... BTC sounds just like fiat, except there will only ever be 21 million of them....

Anyone else hear Marc Andreessen on chatting with Joe Rogan, that in the future people will write there own statements into the blockchain about content so others know its the real them, and not some deep fake AI generated or distributed message... interesting use case as well. very pay as you go.

by JimboJones | 5th Dec 24, 7:09pm 1733378948

BTC doesn’t sound like fiat at all.

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 7:15pm 1733379315

If you trust other bitcoin holders to join you to defend its existence/value to the death then it may be like fiat.

How confident are you?

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 5th Dec 24, 7:41pm 1733380885

You would defend the NZD to the death? Godspeed, I applaud your sacrifice on my behalf. I will stay home. (And buy Bitcoin)

P.s. the fact you think the security of the Bitcoin network is based around Bitcoiners trusting other Bitcoiners shows how little you understand it.

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 7:58pm 1733381895

What do you think the NZDF is purposed for?...or any other military?

You may choose to stay home (on pain of imprisonment, having your assts seized, etc) but if push came to shove the ability to issue currency is what we defend....if we think those seeking to seize our resources will make our position better we may not defend, but history indicates that largely we do defend the existing.

By all means be a bitcoin conscientious objector.

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 5th Dec 24, 8:20pm 1733383225

We are defending the country and the interests of the country, not necessarily the currency. Money preceded states, after all.

Conflating the defence of the state with the defence of the currency is incredibly myopic. How many Italians, Spaniards, French, Germans, fought to the death to keep their currency instead of moving to the Euro?

And what about cases like Argentina where citizens actively abandoned the currency due to continual debasement? Why aren't Argentinians fighting to the death for the peso?

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 8:23pm 1733383427

Whos going to defend bitcoin?...the few millions scattered around the world? how are they going to organise to defend their 'ownership'?

Nation states exist for a reason.....and nation states almost exclusively reserve the right to issue currency, which represents their resources/assets.

The europeans chose (?, were 'persuaded') to exchange individual currencies for the 'benefit' of a combined currency....which they defend.

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 8:42pm 1733384555

Why would anyone defend Bitcoin - no one owns it (its not backed by a nation)..there are only 21 million (less now)..., it does not need a army ..that's the whole point!

Maybe your god will defend your fiat Frank?

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 9:01pm 1733385708

"Why would anyone defend bitcoin?"

Indeed.

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 9:31pm 1733387473

I would rather own it Lets be Frank..

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 9:43pm 1733388230

Then i wish you good luck

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 5th Dec 24, 8:40pm 1733384432

Bitcoin doesn't need defending. It is steamrolling all other currencies (based on exchange rates) as is. And this is with active hostility by multiple states including most major world powers. (Been banned in China, Russia, lot of SEC hostility in USA etc).

But those bans don't work and Bitcoin keeps smashing all other currencies by exchange rates. People all over the world are willing to give up more and more of their native currency to acquire Bitcoin (hence the price rises aka changing exchange rates).

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 9:04pm 1733385855

What assets have you bought with bitcoin?...and where are those assets located?

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 5th Dec 24, 9:22pm 1733386940

Ive bought all sorts of things with it. Beers last Friday for example over the lightning network at my local. Used it to payback friends, transfer money overseas, etc.

https://bitpay.com/directory/

Have a look through there to see where you can spend crypto or buy giftcards with crypto.

And the biggest difference, of course, is fiat only goes one direction: down. When was the last time we had deflation, not inflation so your money went further? Since I save in crypto it happens all the time. People on this site park thousands on TDs at 6% pa and think they're financial geniuses, I'm up 5% today.

Ask yourself this sincerely: do you actually know much about crypto? Do you know the difference between proof-of-stake and proof-of-work? Have you ever actually used it? Setup a wallet, transferred with it, used to make purchases etc?

In any case, you'll come round in time. That's the nature of money, it's a collective delusion in any form. And the market is clearly telling us which is the best form of money based on the exchange rate. But ignore that if you wish and regret it later 🤷

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 9:43pm 1733388180

I agree that money is a 'collective delusion' however it is a collective delusion backed by the force of the 'collective'....think about it.

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 5th Dec 24, 9:56pm 1733388999

So why don't Argentinians believe in their currency then? What you are saying can't explain empirical reality, therefore must be incorrect. Because reality is always correct.

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 10:10pm 1733389824

What has happened in Argentina?....a substantial proportion of the population have lost faith (the collective delusion) in the Peso, just as other currencies have collapsed (hence hyperinflation)....what did they do though?....they adopted the global reserve currency as a medium of exchange informally.

Have they abandoned the peso or the ability to issue currency?....not yet despite the threats to do so.

The powers that be will maintain the ability to issue currency until they cannot (they may create a new 'peso')....and if that point is reached the economy will collapse and we will witness yet another failed state....and failed states are more conducive to warlords than crypto currencies.

That is the empirical reality.

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 5th Dec 24, 10:45pm 1733391956

If your potential visions for the future are the status quo or warlords, then I can see why you have reached the conclusions you have. I think there are many more options than this with the major one being competition between currencies of highly variable form and function (aka the empirical emerging reality today).

Case in point: Milei has legalised Bitcoin and cryptocurrency for contract settlement late last year.

https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/president-javier-mileis-…

It is also legal tender in El Salvador. But keep denying the evidence in front of your eyes if you prefer.

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 10:56pm 1733392573

"Case in point: Milei has legalised Bitcoin and cryptocurrency for contract settlement late last year."

Note that Argentina facing near hyper inflation and a loss of faith in the issued currency still didnt adopt Bitcoin to supplant the Peso.....empirical reality today.

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 6th Dec 24, 12:17am 1733397461

Alright Frank, whatever. Guy on a finance blog who has never used crypto in anyway, clearly has no understanding of how it works technically, apparently refuses to try and learn, ignores price signals, ignores political signals, has missed out on once in a generation financial gains, but convinced he knows all there is to know about it.

God speed. When we hit 200k remember this convo and that you had every opportunity to buy in.

Adios.

by Let me be Frank | 6th Dec 24, 4:50am 1733413849

All 'money' is backed by the ability(desire) to defend what it represents....and it represents the resources under control of a grouping.

The only question about crypto is when will the Damascus moment strike?....until then some may well make profit from its trade, just as some made profit from tulips once upon a time.

by Zwifter | 6th Dec 24, 9:24am 1733430275

"People on this site park thousands on TDs at 6% pa and think they're financial geniuses, I'm up 5% today."

We don't think we are geniuses, speaking for myself the feeling is I have already made it in life and can just sit back and get the time to enjoy it. Perhaps you need to stop and think how we ended up with hundreds of thousands to put into a TD in the first place ?

by lonewolfnz | 5th Dec 24, 9:39pm 1733387996

Last figures I saw were around 400 million people. Including a large percent of people in the USA which is why it became a political issue

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 9:46pm 1733388369

Around a quarter of that....but importantly no government can issue it.

by IT GUY | 5th Dec 24, 7:43pm 1733380991

Have you ever stood in a data center of any of the biggest banks in the world?

No gold vault, no printers, no cash management section... no bearer bonds.

Just flashing lights like a great big BTC mining operation....

We already have tokens NZD vs AUD vs USD.

And you have some trust that a bank will convert your tokens (ones and zeros) to notes if asked .

Those NZD in your bank mainframe are just as real as BTC, ie they are not.

by ToroNZ | 5th Dec 24, 9:02pm 1733385735

Can the BTC ledger be compromised?

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 5th Dec 24, 9:23pm 1733387012

Yea but its a hell of a lot harder than compromising the ledger of any major bank.

by powerdownkiwi | 5th Dec 24, 9:14pm 1733386440

'Those NZD in your bank mainframe are just as real as BTC, ie they are not.'

Exactly my point, upthread.

But LMBF's point re a military backing, is valid. When push comes to shove... But the bigger game is the one of bluff between militaries - which is what is going on now, globally. As Redgum sang a long time ago - if you don't fight, you lose... Maybe Putin is a fan.

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 8:37pm 1733384247

I am guessing you still trade with shells then PDK? Or you above all that?

by powerdownkiwi | 5th Dec 24, 9:23pm 1733386989

Silly comment.

I realised that energy was the key, a long time ago. So I built a passive-solar house. Planted - by hand - a forest. Created gardens. Built glasshouses. Assembled the attendant infrastructure - most recently, rabbit-fencing. So now I don't have to trade with anyone, very much. Energy underwrites money. 100%, so if you eliminate the need to purchase it's results....

Oddly enough, I think I have a richer life than most, but then, my values system is different.

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 9:32pm 1733387573

Silly comment and not answering the question, how do you pay your rates..with carrots?

by Yvil | 5th Dec 24, 10:28pm 1733390929

That sounds like you're using a whole lot of land just for yourself there PDK, quite selfish and not efficient of the "scarcity of the planet" you preach. Imagine if everyone used as much land as you do.

by Chaosinflesh | 6th Dec 24, 3:58am 1733410704

At 5 billion hectares of agricultural land (1.5B arable), there's plenty of land to go around. Just like there's plenty of food.

What we have is a distribution problem. Which a reduction in energy will solve, as people will deurbanise. Though I do wonder what that would do for fertility rates...

by Snow | 6th Dec 24, 6:22am 1733419333

How much land and resources do you think it takes to support your lifestyle Yves?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 6:46pm 1733377577

Some friends and I were looking for where the trigger for the next meltdown would come from. Now we have better idea. Take care.

by interesting1234 | 5th Dec 24, 8:20pm 1733383246

Just throwing it out there, but imagine the wealth in Turkey now. Many there put most of their savings into bitcoin when the lira tanked and with the hikes in value since…..

by ToroNZ | 5th Dec 24, 9:05pm 1733385929

White BMW's everywhere

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 5th Dec 24, 9:26pm 1733387206

The next crisis is coming from fiat currency debasement. But many are mistaking the people heading for the lifeboats for the ones who caused the ship to sink. But it was the people in charge who steered the ship into the iceberg that did that. The people heading for the lifeboats are the crypto crowd, while everybody else is in the ballroom dancing

by talking sense | 5th Dec 24, 5:18pm 1733372306

A couple of excellent articles

https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/12/04/it-was-always-about-the-o…

"In short, the whole house of cards is founded – in the face of material depletion – upon the incomes of a mass of western householders who are increasingly unable to consume at the rate required to maintain our overburdened debt-based economy… a crisis of under-consumption indeed!"

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/12/04/the-world-economy-needs-to-simpli…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdXdaIsfio8

Sorry Bitconners - it was the easy credit which allowed us to get this far ...

We have an under consumption problem which doesnt spell longevity for supply lines

by gnx | 5th Dec 24, 5:33pm 1733373232

Pdk

give us a break

by talking sense | 5th Dec 24, 5:52pm 1733374368

well pdk does understand the dilemma - though i think he thinks there is some powered down way out

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 6:02pm 1733374970

Does he? I've not seen it. According to PDK ... we're fucked ... "There is no way out." (LOTR stuff.)

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 7:12pm 1733379155

'We're fucked 'is the less polite way of saying you cannot have infinite growth in a finite environment.....it may be bad manners but it isnt inaccurate.

Sometimes the truth is hard to accept.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 7:24pm 1733379871

"in a finite environment."

Yeah. I guess that the Sun is indeed part of our finite environment. Any idea when it is going to fail?

And one notes ... So is our Moon. But we completely ignore the energy we can derive from it.

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 7:38pm 1733380711

Then you completely misunderstand energy....the suns energy requires conversion to 'work', and that takes resources. Those resources are limited.

And on top of that there is entropy...if we by some miracle manage to continue to create further energy conversion we cannot avoid creating heat.

Bugger

by agnostium | 5th Dec 24, 7:47pm 1733381268

This is a really piss poor response CONF, you talk a lot of sense on many matters but you need to get your head around energy.

I don't think PDK has ever said the sun will run out, his point is that obtaining energy from the sun requires energy input and materials which also require energy.

The previous energy boom was due to solar energy that took millions of years to be produced and stored in fossil fuels. That supply is limited and we are using up increasing amounts of it. There is no replacement. Solar panels do not build themselves, they require energy and materials. Solar panels also do not produce a type of energy that is a portable as a fossil fuels.

by DingleDorf | 6th Dec 24, 1:29am 1733401742

Oil is created abiogenetically within the earth, so what are you even waffling on about?

by interesting1234 | 6th Dec 24, 8:47am 1733428066

It's the rate of oil being created vs the rate of consumption that is the killer, by untold orders of magnitude

by JimboJones | 5th Dec 24, 7:26pm 1733379980

Technically true. But that doesn’t explain whether we’re fucked today, next year, next century, next millennium, etc.

by agnostium | 5th Dec 24, 7:49pm 1733381375

It 100% does explain whether we're fucked somewhere between next year and next century, probably next 30 years at best calculations.

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 8:15pm 1733382931

Theres quite a few clues....my pick is within the next 2 decades which aligns pretty much with the BAU case from the Limits to Growth model.

I dont think anyone else has made public a contrary model.

by JimboJones | 5th Dec 24, 8:18pm 1733383124

The biggest clue is price. If we were running out of fossil fuel you wouldn’t be able to buy a litre of it for $2.40 (and most of that is tax).

Personally I think we are closer to peak demand than peak supply.

by Let me be Frank | 5th Dec 24, 8:57pm 1733385455

Is the biggest clue price?

The price is volatile and subject to both supply and demand (availability to market)...there currently is reduced demand (economies struggling) and a race to extract and sell as much as possible to support those economies, so why wouldnt the price be relatively low?....that tells us nothing about tomorrow, but we do know that the faster we extract it the sooner it depletes and as it depletes it becomes harder to extract.

Rather than a price signal I would be looking for availability....one day we wont be able to access it at any price, either because its not available or the quantity available is kept in house.

by agnostium | 5th Dec 24, 10:33pm 1733391195

Yes you would if governments/banks were creating money and then subsidising fossil fuels to the tune of $7trillion US dollars or approx 7% of world GDP every year. We're paying way more than the barrel/pump price.

I know you're fairly good on transport. The reason why it seems so cheap to drive a car in NZ is because the costs are not incurred at the point of purchase i.e. buying fuel. There are massive hidden subsidies all the way through the roading system. It's no different with fossil fuel energy at a global scale.

by powerdownkiwi | 5th Dec 24, 9:28pm 1733387320

Chris, withdraw and apologise.

Then stop assuming.

Then listen.

I've been advocating how to live low-impact, for decades. And walking the walk. If you didn't want to listen, fine. If you're nuance/tone deaf, fine.

But time you started thinking, doing some homework.

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 24, 9:59pm 1733389147

I am reading quite a bit of stuff on zen buddhism at the moment. A Zen view would describe both you and Chris as just as deluded in your positions, and driven by ego.

I am too, but aware of it and working on it….

by solardb | 5th Dec 24, 6:37pm 1733377032

Question, how does Black rock get to walk away from the debt owed by Solar Zero? They are certainly not insolvent.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 6:49pm 1733377761

'Separate legal entity'. It is an absolutely critical thing that all real investors MUST understand.

by solardb | 5th Dec 24, 6:54pm 1733378088

Yet a private company director is personally liable? Or has to sign any credit application as such?

by AN Other | 5th Dec 24, 7:53pm 1733381606

Lots of credit applications include a personal guarantee section.

If you are clever you'll cross that all out and then argue the point later on.

Also, shareholders are only liable up to the value of their shares (which is why credit applications often have a personal section).

by solardb | 5th Dec 24, 8:01pm 1733382067

Yes, any trade account wants a personal guarantee.

Only the bigger firms get to cross it out, from what I hear. My sister worked for a big international firm, they crossed out everything except contact details etc.

by AN Other | 6th Dec 24, 9:00am 1733428855

Amongst my many roles, one is to fill out credit applications - primarily to identify personal guarantees (most of our staff are pig ignorant on these matters if I'm to pass judgement). Some credit apps don't have them, some are buried deep in the fine print. Credit apps that come in readable pdfs can have keyword searches, which makes it easier to find: personal or guarantee or variations on the spelling of those words.

I agree about the bigger firms thing. Especially if you are bigger than your supplier but you can get away with crossing out if the person in the credit control department of the supplier is just as ignorant as my workmates about the relevance of a personal guarantee. Too many firms put their dumbest people into the "accounts" office...

by Zachary Smith | 5th Dec 24, 8:20pm 1733383232

How does tax work with bitcoin? If you bought $10,000 worth of bitcoin and then a few years later sold it for $100,000 would you have to pay like 39% income tax on that $90,000?

by lonewolfnz | 5th Dec 24, 7:49pm 1733381351

That's exactly how it works. Plus provisional tax which is a nightmare.

But on the other hand.... imagine something like Uniswap token when they get the fee switch turned on. Now you are earning say 20% dividends from the token. Sounds a lot like a share doesn't it? Acquired for passive income you might even say.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 8:25pm 1733383530

People out themselves as knowing jack shit about tax they make statements like "Plus provisional tax which is a nightmare"

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 8:38pm 1733384285

Great point

by lonewolfnz | 5th Dec 24, 9:42pm 1733388161

I've paid seven figures in tax on crypto. Yes prov tax is a nightmare because you estimate as you go or pay with an uplift. Neither of these works. I'm often in a loss for the first half of the tax year, then in a huge positive position second half. And yes there is tax pooling which I use but again how do you know how much to put in the pool ?

by LapisLazuli5297 | 5th Dec 24, 9:46pm 1733388377

Why are you paying income tax on an appreciating asset?

by lonewolfnz | 5th Dec 24, 10:23pm 1733390607

Because I sold it. IRD view is harsh and narrow. Preferred to pay the tax rather than fight them

by J.C. | 5th Dec 24, 9:26pm 1733387197

That's exactly how it works. Plus provisional tax which is a nightmare.

Depends on jurisdiction. For ex, in some places, there is no tax on BTC. If you're able to your own arrange affairs accordingly, it's good. If not, you might be better off owning the ETF.

by Baywatch | 5th Dec 24, 8:24pm 1733383454

Depends...move to El Salvador and zip

by redcows1 | 5th Dec 24, 8:40pm 1733384413

Only assuming you have another $180,000 of income in that year surely.

by lonewolfnz | 5th Dec 24, 9:43pm 1733388233

Prov tax triggers at quite a low rate.

I know quite a few people with crypto income in the millions (and even tens of millions). Not hard to trigger it with these gains

by J.C. | 5th Dec 24, 10:01pm 1733389287

Don't understand it Wolfie. The classifications that this kind of monetary equivalent represents are Octopus, Fish, and Dolphin in the 'BTC whale distribution'.

They need companies / tax structures set up for tax purposes.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Dec 24, 8:36pm 1733384178

A billionaire (grudgingly - yeah right) endorses Trump ... I can't think why ... Can you?

Jeff Bezos optimistic about working with a ‘calmer’ Donald Trump

by blobbles | 6th Dec 24, 1:16am 1733401015

Holy cow, look at those government books compared to last year: https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-12/fsgnz-4mths-oc…

Did Net Crown Debt increase from 21.5% of GDP last year compared to 43.2% this year? Surely not