A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; retail sales flat, ACC to get inspected, NZGB tender very popular, HFC smuggling busted, swaps and NZD little-changed, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society cut its fixed rates today. Kāinga Ora did too. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ made some more small TD reductions today. They are just the latest to do this. We have a review of where these rates have landed, here. Heretaunga Building Society also cut most TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

NOT THE EXPECTED BOUNCE
Monthly retail spending figures were flat in November, falling back from the strongest rise in months in October. Black Friday failed to put the fizz back into retail spending.

INTERNAL TALENT PROMOTED
Meridian said Neal Barclay will be stepping down as Meridian CEO in 2025, to be replaced by CFI, Mike Roan. Barclay has held the top job for seven years. Meridian is the second largest company on the NZX. It share price rose +12.5% over the past year.

VALUE FOR MONEY?
A blowtorch is going on the ACC organisation with "an independent review" ... "because of concerns about declining rehabilitation rates and increasing costs".

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Here is a summary of how the NZX equity market traded today, as at 3pm. The NZX50 declined -0.8% so far with F&P Healthcare, Mercury, Meridian, and Skellerup leading the decliners and Spark, Turners, SkyTV, and Tower leading the gainers

ILLEGAL TRADE IN HFCs IS A THING
The EPA, Police and Customs have seized hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) gases valued at more than $1 million in a joint operation investigating illegal imports.

SHRINKAGE
Both the number of farms, and the land area being farmed, are apparently shrinking quite quickly. Updated StatsNZ data shows farm numbers fell from 70,300 in 2002. Twenty years later (the latest data), there were 47,250, a fall by a third. The land area farmed is shrinking too (despite fam consolidations). That was down by -15% from 15.6 mln ha to 13.2 mln ha. Those remaining are delivering products that underpin our exports, and there are no contenders yet that can replace them. Over the same period these exports rose almost +300% despite the lesser land use. They are what allows us to buy our cars, travel, (read this article on-line) and enjoy the products and services of the modern world. Just hope this shrinkage doesn't continue. The seafood industry is making good gains however.

STILL WILDLY POPULAR
Almost $1.5 bln was bid for the three NZGB bonds tendered today. 29 of the 84 bids won something. Yields were mostly lower by about -20 bps from the prior equivalent event for the two main maturities on offer.

AN UNEXPECTED IMPROVEMENT
In Australia, their employment rose by +35,600 in November from October, up +334,500 in a year. That is a +2.1% annual rise. Monthly, full-time employment rose +52,600 while part-time employment fell -17,000. These gains were enough to push their jobless rate down from 4.1% to 3.9%, and unexpected improvement. (New Zealand's jobless rate was 4.8% in September.) For some, this is a good-news-is-bad-news item because it probably pushes back an RBA rate cut even further. The ASX200 fell on the news.

GROWING FASTER
Meanwhile, Australia's population rose +2.1% in the year to June, adding +552,000 and taking the total to 27.2 mln. Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia all rose faster than the national average. Victoria grew the most, up +165,000 to just shy of 7 mln. NSW was next, growing +143,000 to 8.5 mln. (New Zealand's population was 5.35 mln as at September, and close to Queensland's 5.6 mln. In the past year, New Zealand's population grew by +65,000 or +1.2%.)

TIME ISN'T RIGHT YET
And staying in Australia, their central bank noted the relentless decline in th e use of cash, but said it is committed to keeping it. They aren't so sure about a CBDC, however. "Our current assessment is that a public interest case to issue a retail CBDC has yet to emerge in Australia. At the present time, we see the potential benefits of a retail CBDC as modest or uncertain, relative to the challenges it would likely introduce. However, as these trade-offs could evolve over time, and as more international experience comes to light, the RBA and the Treasury will continue to examine the issues." Taking action against high fee transaction costs on the existing payment systems seems to be their priority.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed-to-soft today. But the long end is sharply higher, so a serious steepening is underway. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged yesterday to 4.30%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps from yesterday at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate has fallen another -7 bps to just over 1.82% and yet another all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +10 bps at 4.54% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.42% and up +4 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28% and up +5 bps. Their 2yr is now at 4.16%, so that positive curve is now +12 bps, with another rise.

EQUITIES MOSTLY UP, EXCEPT THE ASX & NZX
The NZX50 has fallen -0.7% in late trade today. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Thursday trade up +1.4%. Hong Kong is up +0.3% and Shanghai up +0.2%. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. The S&P500 was up +0.8% on Wednesday Wall Street trade.

OIL FIRMS AGAIN
The oil price is up +US$1 from this time yesterday, now at US$70/bbl in the US, and up to just on US$73.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE SAYS DOWN
The carbon price is staying lower today at NZ$59.25/NZU and still at a four month low. But there is little-to-no trading going on. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$7 from yesterday, now at US$2708/oz.

NZD MOVES LITTLE
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -30 bps today to 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are up +20 bps at 55.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 67.6 and little-changed from yesterday.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price has risen to US$100,643 and up +4.7% from where we were at this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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