Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
The bank of China cut its floating rate by -50 bps to 6.99%. Both CFML and Resimac changed carded rates today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Mutual Credit Finance has cut its 1 - 5yr TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HOUSING MARKET YEAR ENDING ON A QUIET NOTE
According to the REINZ's agent data for November, the housing market was quiet in Auckland, but more buoyant in rest of the country. Overall, house prices drifted sideways in the month, with sales volumes lumpy.
PROMISED SURPLUS NOT POSSIBLE NOW
The Coalition Government says it will not balance its budget within the forecast period, as Treasury forecasts a weaker economic recovery. The Finance Minister says it is not possible because of the large ACC obligations. Credit rating agencies are unlikely to be impressed.
BORROWING $20 BLN MORE
To cover its 'losses' the Government is going to have to borrow more. The forecast 2024/25 New Zealand Government Bond (NZGB) programme has been increased to $40 billion, +$2 billion higher than that published at the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2024. The forecast NZGB programmes for 2025/26, 2026/27, and 2027/28 have also been revised higher, by +$4 billion, +$6 billion, and +$8 billion respectively.
UPTICK
The latest SEEK NZ employment report shows a small increase in job advertisements during November, buoyed by higher job ad volumes in urban regions. It was the first time job ads rose since July.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Here is a summary of how the NZX equity market traded today, as at 3pm. Mercury, Kathmandu, & Channel Infrastructure are today's biggest gainers, with Tower, EBOS, Goodman Property, and the NZX leading the decliners.
CHRISTMAS GIFT FOR BUSINESS SUPPORTERS
The adult minimum wage rate will increase by +1.5% to $23.50 an hour from 1 April 2025, a +35c/hour rise (+$2.80 per eight-hour day) justified because of "considerable progress in reducing inflation". The problem is that inflation is still running at 2.2%. Household living costs are up +3.8%. The cost of living for lowest-spending households increased +4.3% in the 12 months to the September 2024 quarter.
CHRISTMAS GIFT FOR FORESTRY OWNER SUPPORTERS
The Government has today confirmed a -50% reduction to the annual charge for forest owners participating in the forestry Emissions Trading Scheme. That will reduce the annual charge from $30.25/ha per year to $14.90.
MORE OFFSHORE WORKERS
A long list of 'reforms' related to hiring within the Accredited Employer Work Visa system have been announced that will make it easier to bring in offshore workers.
A BETTER YEAR COMES AROUND
DairyNZ’s latest farm financial forecast shows a national breakeven price of $8.32/kgMS. With the average national forecast payout now sitting at $10.08/kgMS, that’s potentially +$1.76 of cream on top for farmers, which is well above the profit margin of recent seasons. More here.
NOT LOOKING AHEAD WITH OPTIMISM
In Australia, the latest Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey shows a smallish dip in confidence with views of current conditions holding up. But consumers there have turned pessimistic again on the future outlook and those declining views are weighing on both labour market, and housing market sentiment. Another survey of businesses shows all is not so flash on the factory floor.
BREAKING THE ANTI-SPECULATION RULE
In China, they have reversed the long-standing rule that banned their commercial banks from making loans for "investment" in the stock market. It is a change that has triggered speculation that Chinese regulators are now channelling credit from the banking system into the stock market, in order to keep share prices afloat as China's economy stays under pressure.
SWAP RATES STEEPER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again at the short end today, but the long end higher again, so the steepening is still underway. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps yesterday at 4.27%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is also down -2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate has fallen another -1 bp to just under 1.74% and yet another all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.63% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.54% and unchanged. The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.40% and little-changed from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is now just under 4.25%, so that positive curve is still +15 bps, with little-change.
EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMER
The NZX50 has risen +0.3% in late trade today. And the ASX200 is up +0.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trade +0.4% firmer. Hong Kong is down -0.4% and Shanghai is up a minor +0.1%. Singapore is down -0.4% at its open. The S&P500 rose +0.4% on Wall Street in its Monday trade.
OIL SOFTISH
The oil price is down -50 USc from this time yesterday, now at US$70.50/bbl in the US, and now just under US$74/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE UP
The carbon price has been a little volatile this week but back up today at NZ$63/NZU with some better trading volumes in the market. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIGHTLY FIRMER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5 from this morning, now at US$2658/oz.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.7 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 54.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 67.8 and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN FIRMS FURTHER
The bitcoin price has risen to US$106,391 and up +0.9% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.1%.
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