Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news of a series of unexpected 'good-news' economic data releases among our trading partners.
First, the US economy added +256,000 jobs in December, much more than the +212,000 in November, and way more than the market expectations of +160,000. Their jobless rate fell. These are the headline rates. The actual change was a tiny fall to 160.5 mln employed workers, but actually a much less reduction than seasonal factors would have indicated.
For all of 2024, they had a rise of +2.2 mln payroll jobs and for the four years of the Biden presidency a rise of +16.9 mln new jobs. In the prior four years, there was a loss of -2.6 mln jobs.
The wider employed labour force only grew by +11.7 mln in the past four years as many people transitioned from unincorporated self-employment back on to company payrolls. In the prior four years, the wider employed labour force shrank by -2.2 mln people. Any way you cut it, the past four years has been a golden period for American employment.
Average weekly earnings rose +3.5% in 2024, up +20.0% over the past four years. In the prior four years they rose +18.0%.
But Americans are increasingly fearful of the year ahead. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey in January dropped because of surging worries over the future path of inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.3%, the highest in eight months, from 2.8% in December. This is only the third time in the last four years that long-run expectations have shown such a large one-month rise. Consumers know they will be paying much more if tariffs are jerked higher soon.
The financial markets are also reacting to the jobs data and the impending impact of tariffs. Wall Street equities are sharply lower today, bond yields have jumped, and a risk-off defensive tone is spreading which saw the USD rise. That's all because the strong jobs data argues for a Fed rate cut pause. Their bar for rate cuts has risen has risen noticeably with this data. The Fed next meets on January 30 (NZT).
Prior to this data release, the latest Atlanta Fed Q4-2024 economic growth estimate was +2.7%. Today's strong labour market data may see some upside to that.
The January USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released today showing lower-than-expected yield and production estimates for both corn and soybeans, and prices for both rose on the news. They reported lower beef production in the US and higher imports from South America and Oceania, but expect little-change in 2025. They also see lower US milk production and lower US dairy exports.
Canada also reported their December labour force data today and that was strong too. Employment there rose +90,900 with more than half that as full-time jobs. Their jobs growth was far higher than the +25,000 expected and the +50,700 in November. This surge also calls into question whether the Bank of Canada will actually cut rates when they next meet, also on January 30 (NZT).
The latest Japanese household spending survey indicated another fall in November, part of a pattern of monthly falls since early 2023. But this one was a little different because it was the smallest surveyed fall in the series and a much 'improved' result that from both prior months and from what was expected. Some see a turning point.
In China, in a surprise move, their central bank said it would suspend treasury bond purchases in the open market due to a supply shortage, effective immediately. They will "resume purchases at an appropriate time based on market conditions". The move comes amid repeated warnings from them about bubble risks in their overheated bond market, where long-term yields have plummeted to record lows. Over the past year, yields on key bonds, including the benchmark 10-year government bond, have reached unprecedented lows as investors flock to safe-haven assets. This shift is largely driven by ongoing economic uncertainties linked to a prolonged property market slump. In December, Chinese leaders signaled further rate cuts, fueling another surge in bond market activity. This pushed the 10-year treasury bond yield to an all-time low of 1.6% earlier this month, exacerbating concerns over market exuberance.
Their yields recovered after this move but the recovery didn't hold. But at least they arrested the decline and the day ended unchanged.
Chinese analysts are expecting bad news coming from the series of large zombie property developers that have been holding on with government funding support. But most of them seem to have reached the end of the line and a series of default-into-administration events are now anticipated, and investors will take a bath. None of this will help the economic mood.
In India, their industrial production showed a small improvement in November, up +5.2% from a year ago with manufacturing up +5.8%. Both results were better than October and better than expected.
In Australia, their Federal Government accounts for the five months to November show that tax receipts are surging. That is cutting into their budget deficit for the year quickly. At the current rate the full year budget deficit may halve. If the trend continues, they even have a chance of posting a surplus. The reason for the improved outlook is twofold: their jobs market is buoyant generating higher income tax deductions than expected, and their currency is falling vs the USD, and their mineral exports are sold in USD generating an unexpected rise in royalty receipts (and higher corporate income tax receipts).
And we should note that the Los Angeles fire disaster could have a strong echo in insurance markets everywhere, including here. It will likely be an event where many insurers reassess and re-rate their exposure to climate change risks. And if you can get insurance, it will be a step-change more expensive in the future. It is not just "fires in Southern California", it is the full climate risks that are being reassessed. The Los Angeles event is an industry turning point.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.76%, and up +7 bps from yesterday in a jobs-data reaction. A week ago it was at 4.59% so a +16 bps rise from then. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive by +39 bps. Their 1-5 curve is more positive at +33 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is also much more positive, now by +45 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.64% and up +10 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.63% and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.65% and also unchanged.
Wall Street is down a sharp -1.2% on the S&P500 in Friday trade in reaction to the good jobs numbers. If that holds, the weekly change is a -0.8% fall. Overnight, European markets closed about -0.7% lower. And Tokyo fell another -1.1% yesterday for a -1.9% weekly retreat. Hong Kong was down -0.9% for a weekly retreat of -4.0%. Shanghai was down -1.3% in Friday trade to cap a weekly loss of -1.3%. Singapore also ended down -1.6%. The ASX200 closed its Friday trade down -0.4% but managed a +0.5% weekly gain. The NZX50 also fell -0.4% yesterday for a weekly -1.3% reversal.
The Fear & Greed Index ends the week hard over in the 'fear' zone, and but actually little-changed from last week.
The price of gold will start today at US$2689/oz and up +US$20 from this time yesterday and up +US$49 from a week ago.
Oil prices are up +US$2.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$76.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$79.50. That is the same as the weekly gain. The jump today came from fear of the effect of new sanctions activity.
The Kiwi dollar starts today just under 55.6 USc and down -40 bps from this time yesterday and down -50 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.6 and down -30 bps and down the same from a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,589 and down -0.7% from this time on yesterday. A week ago it was at US$97,969 so a -4.5% fall since then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
137 Comments
Consumers know they will be paying much more if tariffs are jerked higher soon.
How do all the regulars feel tariffs will impact NZ and Australia? will get 0% 5% or 10%
On our goods going into US.
Our military defence spending is also very very low compared with the Nata ask.
It seems the day of reckoning for the last 5 years monetary policy folly is imminent. The UK is finished, Europe's manufacturing is being obliterated by China and the US is going to drag the rest of the world into recession via a strong US$. Emergency hikes this year may just be the wildcard no one is talking about, that's the only way to address a bond crisis and that is 100% what is coming.
How will Trump fix it ? This has been 50 years in the making and parts of it are now actually irreversible over the next 50 years, possibly never. China now has the upper hand and people need to get used to it and try and work with it, we pretty much have no choice.
Yup. The Tr-usk presidency will be a problem.
But only minor one. The Tr-usk presidency wants the government debt-cap removed so the government can create even more debt, thereby kicking the can down the road. In essence, a return to 'normal'. Methinks 'fiscally responsible' Republicans will roll-over to their demands while Dems 'wash their hands of it".
What could go wrong?
Like Buffet says, I know not exactly when, only that it will.
I expect the main reason they havnt expanded is the demand isnt there....or they are unable to meet it at the right price.
All economies are struggling with the lack of growth , but the USD has the advantage that there is no currency risk (unless they lose reserve currency status)....the plan to print in the face of falling output has stopped working and everyone is running for cover.
Are they meeting that demand?
I see they announced that contract this morning.
"The Neutron launch site on Wallops Island, Virginia, is nearly ready to start development, with an inaugural launch slated for mid-2025. That launch site is a key piece of the company's expansion strategy, allowing it to respond to the growing demand for medium-lift launch services."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-lab-expands-nasa-partnership-1724…
Great for the company...not so sure that NZ will see a lot of benefit, but we may see some.
The point remains.
Big shareholder is Lockheed Martin.
Quite a few Kiwis are in to it via Hatch and Sharesies. Beats FBU and TWH!
My only other NZ related share is Infratil aside from KiwiSaver growth fund which has some NZ stuff but not too much luckily.
There is a big wide world out there…..
Rocketlab will probably go the same way as Weta Digital, as its highly likely that the NZ base is only being used temporarily while they finish completing their US set up. Once that occurs, the NZ base will be wound back, if not canned altogether. Employees will be relocated to the US or let go.
"Significant progress continues to be made on the rocket’s launch site on Wallops Island, Virginia, with the site’s completion expected in the coming months. Production, infrastructure scaling, and both Archimedes engine and full-scale components testing is continuing at pace across Rocket Lab’s various production and test facilities throughout the United States. Neutron is scheduled for its debut launch from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 3 in Virginia from mid-2025."
https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-selected-by-nasa-to-pro…
Why?....those with funds to invest are who determine where those funds will go....and currently they are heading to the US so other currencies are devaluing in relation. Will increased interest rates here change that?...possibly but only if those with the funds see the possibility of a return greater than the currency risk.....but more importantly, the confidence that they will not lose any of their capital. What is happening in NZ that may provide such opportunity and confidence?
This would probably be me.
Openstar Technologies - https://www.openstar.tech/
JFoe: "literally zero to do with sustained deficits"?
Maybe nothing to do with our "sustained" deficits.
But what about the level of the current ones?
Are you suggesting they haven't near doubled over the last few years?
Or, are suggesting they will be back to 'normal' in no time?
Sorry, JFoe, that throwaway statement needs qualification and context.
I presumed this was govt deficit spending - was the OP about current account deficits? I would still raise doubts, but not as firmly as I did.
The interest rates and exchange rate move independently of govt deficits, which we should remember, are more than offset by gains on financial assets. The govt has a net financial worth that has strengthened over recent years because it's financial assets have appreciated by more that it's liabilities.
I took the OP to be about the current account deficits, hence my comment, and surprise at yours. But on re-reading the OP's words, I'm not so sure.
In any event, my view is that continuous current accounts deficits do, and will continue to be, reflected in devaluations in the NZD. And this in turn is reflected in a 'risk premium' that international lenders will add to the yields they demand on our debt, i.e. higher interest rates, to account for future falls in the NZD, with a corresponding dampening effect on real investment, i.e. creating new stuff. I do expect the current accounts deficit which is significant at this time, to reduce over the next few years but it'll remain bigger than it was prior to covid, and therefore the NZD will stay under pressure, and we will therefore get poorer.
With regards government deficits, I'm pretty much aligned with your good self. i.e. So long as a good proportion of the govt deficit is spent creating new, and enduring and future focused stuff, that provides an economic return to NZ Inc. as a whole (that govt can derive revenue from) - rather than as now, simply paying the bills - govt deficits aren't that big an issue.
A hike to the OCR will do ABSOLUTELY nothing to the value of the NZD. Grow up.
The NZD is going down because NZ Inc. continues to rely on overseas lending to sustain our 'way of life'.
When overseas lenders aren't keen on lending us ... The NZD tanks, a new floor is established, and slowly the NZD claws back some of the way, but not all of it.
Slowly, but surely, we all get poorer.
Since the peak of US$8.965 tln in April 2022 (35.6% of GDP), the US Fed balance sheet has dropped by -US$2.1 tln to US$6.852 tln on Wednesday this week, or now 23.1% of US GDP. By any measure that is a significant move lower.
And for perspective and the record, the RBNZ balance sheet is now 20.8% of our GDP ($87.6 bln of RBNZ assets, compared with an annual nominal GDP of $421.7 bln).
It was nearly five years ago when USD liquidity crisis happened. Credit markets functionally froze and the S&P 500 declined by 33%. The Fed has more than doubled the base money supply in response and the S&P is cumulatively "up" only 72% since.
While the Fed has since been reducing reserves, that will only serve to create another crisis, requiring even more money to be printed. As the Fed prints money, more people may figure out why BTC exists. Bitcoin dropped by almost 50% in a single day (March 2020) but has since increased in purchasing power by approx 9.5x relative to USD. Somewhat better than the equity risk of the S&P.
Did you really "look it up"? or just take some partisan blogger's guess for it?
If you really looked it up you would have done so from here: https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm
And you would have found the "government" increase was +429,000 over the past twelve months. That is less than 20% of the total increase in employer payrolls. Hardly "most of all jobs added". In this case 'government' is the combination of federal, state, county, and city governments, plus the military. The 19.9% 'government' share is less than the 'government' share of GDP, 22.1%. (During the first Trump Administration, it was 30.1%. You can look that up too.)
Yes, this survey is revised. It is hard to get 100% compliance of survey results in 11 days in such a large country. So they add the stragglers when they come in. Almost always, the one-month revision is minor. The two-month revision is really minor. Revisions go both ways, as much as 'up' and 'down. But there have been a few high-profile revisions, mostly related to seasonal adjustment which was affected by the pandemic period. Which is why we tend to use the 'actual' results rather than the s.a. ones.
Here is what the adjustments was for the year until till August 2024. The largest revision since 2009.
And Elon heading the productive dept with new incoming president. His big bug bear is productivity all well and good to have all these bew jobs but hows productivity. Remeber that thing called Twitter before Elon took over then got rid of how many employees. He has said there are 400 plus govt depts that is a guess as even google cant tell him how many and he is looking forward to getting into that job. Bit like someone here called David did and remeber the howls of despair and being told how important the civil servant jobs were. Yet we are still ticking along
Well it works like this if you have a mortgage, when it rolls over you are forced to make a decision based on the information available now not 3 or 6 months ago. If I had to take a punt now I would say the RBNZ are going to hold and even if they do drop I recon it will only be the short term rates affected so in 6 months time you are really going to get pinged when it rolls over but that's not financial advice, just my opinion. Note we are only "Gambling" with like $100K not $1M so we are hardly going to get wrecked with the "Wrong" decision.
Well, 5.49% looks pretty good, considering I don’t see rates coming down anytime soon in this "Good data quashes rate cut hopes" environment. Last year, Kiwibank economists were predicting a return to a neutral rate of 3.75% this year, but clearly, the OCR isn’t heading there if inflation returns. Honestly, Kiwis might have to pin their hopes on a crash in US equities, that could be the only path to lower rates as cash flows into the bond market, pushing the US into a recession and weakening their dollar.
2025 could be the year it all hits the fan. Its certainly off to a very bad start if you live in LA, those satellite pictures are truly apocalyptic like some sort of nuclear strike. This year could easily be the worst ever, Climate change we just went over the 1.5C and there is a record number of wars already in progress. Kiwis are really going to have to reign it in for 2025.
Unemployment trend still not as healthy as during the last Trump years-dropping from 4.7% in Jan 2017 to 3.5% in Feb of 2020 before Covid hit.
December jobs report shows economy added 256,000 jobs to end year
And then there is this- A growing number of Americans who want to work full time are settling for part-time roles ‒ another sign that a labor market that was sizzling just a couple of years ago has cooled substantially.“It’s gotten much tougher for job seekers,” said economist Dante DeAntonio of Moody’s Analytics.O
Obama's 2013 "Obamacare Law" mandated employers with over 20 employees must offer private health insurance coverage for workers averaging over 30 hours per week. Since then large employers like Amazon have moved towards part time workers. In San Franciso for instance a single man could be paying up to $1500 per month for Health Insurance. My son's policy is only $900 per month but he is on a "legacy policy" from the University of California. New employees pay $1,500 mo, with the university picking up 1/2 that cost.
The golden age was when full time jobs were routinely offered to workers. Many now have to juggle 3 or more part time jobs and like my niece and that doesn't count here 3 times a week "dog walking" jig.
Yeap, I know a family friend in New York that graduated last year is struggling to secure a full time job at the moment, with her peers also in the same position. I think the Non-farm payroll out of the last 10-15 releases has only came in like once or twice below expectations with the rest far exceeding, yet the PCE, CPI, continues to trend down. Non-farm payroll also gets wildly revised down months later, it’s such a messy stat.
I think the ADP stat shown a few days ago is a good indicator that the current economy in the states is not as hot as people think, so inflation trending upwards again is very unlikely. I think Roger’s article last week is a good prediction that by the middle of the year, reality will kick back in that current rate settings are still restrictive, and the easing cycle will re-commence.
Biden's Golden period of job growth only added 3 million full time jobs. . See St Louis Fed graph
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000
That includes everyone who lost their job in 2020 due to lockdowns. Its a bit disingenous to describe people simply getting their jobs back as jobs being "created". A better measure of his four year term is to look at the pre-Covid Feb 2020 number - 130M. So a true "gain" of 3M jobs over the term, but considering they imported 8M people during that time as well, I'd say that is a pretty poor effort. Its one thing to support open immigration to illegals, but if you cant create enough jobs for them and your citizens, then you are just creating more poverty and inequality.
When you've pumped the country with millions of immigrants, willing to work for low wages, its hardly surprising there are not enough jobs to go around for Americans.
Now that the election is over, the USA Govt agencies can stop hiding or outright lying about the numbers.
"The US population surged by 8 million people in the three years from July 2021 through July 2024, to 340.1 million, according to the updated estimates from the Census Bureau today. The 3.3 million net increase over the 12 months through July 2024 was the largest in decades."
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/19/census-bureau-revises-up-population-g…
Isn't Trump already upsetting his followers over planning to let more immigrants in? H-1B visas because immigrants work for less, and those with all the wealth are still in charge (in fact 13 billionaires are on his team at last count) and want to save on labour costs.
Lol, you didn't really believe Trump did you?
It dosnt?....Why did interest rates fall post GFC? Credit must expand or there will be defaults.....how do you get people to borrow?....by making it prohibitively expensive?....no, you need to make it as easy as possible (but also keep in mind that you want a return plus the return).....sub prime mortgages are a great example of the desperation of the need to lend, i doubt that mistake will be made again soon, so it will be lower interest rates......or bust.
You're putting the cart before the horse. Low interest rates post-GFC were a result of monetary policy, not lack of demand. Same with the Covid era.
You only need to look at what's happening now if you need an example. What's the correlation between borrowing and interest rates? What's the correlation between saving (e.g. term deposits) and interest rates?
Watch non-farm get revised down in the next few months lol. The markets should really just double whatever initial expectation they had before each release at this point. Non farm-payroll has come in higher than expectations like 95% of the time in each release in the past year. Exceeding expectations is the new expectation.
Japan's real GDP per capita has been better than that of Aussie since the GFC based on data from the ABS and Gerard Minack.
So despite the Aussie Ponzi and the post-GFC splurge by China, Aussie appears to have gone nowhere compared to an economy that is considered a basket case.
Why is that P? Aussie is having the biggest income decline in the developed world. In the 12 months to June 2023, Australian household incomes slumped 5.1 per cent, the sharpest fall recorded across the OECD, according to analysis by The Australian Financial Review.
Aussie’s real gross household disposable income per capita is now where it was ten years ago. The rest of the OECD has been trending upwards, but Aussie has nosedived in just 2 years.
Is this a good thing?
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-records-biggest-income-dec…
Given that 82% of all jobs created in the last year were government jobs rather than private business, it makes you wonder about Aussie. Making out like a bandit in the public sector is all very well but you wonder how sustainable it is.
The mighty Chris Joye reckons:
While equity markets have been ebullient, we are having the worst bankruptcy cycle in most developed nations since the global financial crisis. This is not affecting the core economy: almost all the defaults to date have been among much more marginal borrowers sitting on the periphery of the economy who could not get money from a bank and were forced into the arms of non-banks. And it is going to get a lot worse unless we see very deep rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/bond-markets-punish-imprudent-poli…
"In China, in a surprise move, their central bank said it would suspend treasury bond purchases in the open market due to a supply shortage, effective immediately. They will "resume purchases at an appropriate time based on market conditions"."
Yup. The fools went too hard, too fast.
(I mentioned this some days back. The few that replied assured me I knew nothing. C'est la vie.)
(I mentioned this some days back. The few that replied assured me I knew nothing. C'est la vie.)
Really? The PBOC announced the temporary suspension of its government bond purchases on Jan 10, but you had prior information about demand for China bonds?
Are you cosplaying as an expert on Japan bond markets?
"And we should note that the Los Angeles fire disaster could have a strong echo in insurance markets everywhere, including here. It will likely be an event where many insurers reassess and re-rate their exposure to climate change risks."
Actually, no. The established re-insurers were well aware of the risks in LA (and many other places). We've been making it clear for years, even decades. Most will standing back and saying, "Told ya so." The johnies-come-lately that were gambling on it happening later, rather than sooner, will go to the wall.
EDIT: Side note: I guess most haven't thought about how much their mortgages will increase if banks start getting nervous about insurance company liquidity?
Turns out that Operation Chokepoint 2.0 is very much real - "...there have been various accounts of individuals & businesses associated with crypto / the industry losing access to bank accounts without explanation."
FDIC Vice Chair has said: "Efforts to debank law-abiding customers are unacceptable, regulators must work to end it, and there is no place at the FDIC for anyone who has pushed—explicitly or implicitly—banks to stop serving law-abiding customers."
Let me suggest that all the players in this won't be held to account.
https://www.fdic.gov/news/speeches/2025/charting-new-course-preliminary…
You should read before you have a reckon Z. Throwaways are all very well at the BBQ but focus on the content.
Following the regional bank failures in 2023, the public release of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) exam reports and supervisory findings drew attention to bank regulators’ emphasis on process rather than core financial risks.1 At the time of failure, SVB was subject to a long list of supervisory criticisms, but most were unrelated to financial risks, and the one criticism related to interest rate risk was focused on the bank’s modeling, not on the actual hole in the bank’s balance sheet
So someone responding to social media reports, and therefore MSM's reports, of debanking suddenly makes widespread debanking a fact?
Geez. Seriously?
What's really happened is that most of these 'debanked' customers have claimed, and used, so much 'crypto worth' that banks have debanked them because they've become a ridiculous risk while insisting they can value their crypto assets better than the banks can.
You also didn't read before you reckoned. If you had, you will understand that the content is the speech given by Travis Hill, the Vice Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), serving as a primary policy advisor to the Chairman. He oversees bank regulations and represents the FDIC on the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Deputies Committee.
Furthermore, while debanking may apply to individuals, this is more relevant to institutions and businesses.
It's good to comment but important to understand what you write before you put your digits to keypad.
I knew exactly who made the comments. And on what information those comments were in response too. Dig deeper, J.C.
The comments are from a speech published on the FDIC website. No social media. No MSM. No idea why you would want to suggest as such.
If you want to give your opinion on the speech and the content, by all means do.
It will likely be an event where many insurers reassess and re-rate their exposure to climate change risks
Or maybe insurers need to reassess and rerate their exposure to areas with stupid Governments?
Lets look at California's decisions lately.
Fast food workers in California now get $20 an hour minimum wage, while firefighters get $15 an hour - resulting in a major shortage of wildland firefighters.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/west/us-shortage-wildland-firefig…
Major cuts to the firefighting budget, to reallocate money to things like illegal migrant shelters
https://nypost.com/2025/01/10/us-news/lafd-chief-slams-karen-bass-for-m…
Shipping firefighting equipment off to Ukraine to "show support"
https://abc7.com/los-angeles-county-firefighters-sending-supplies-to-uk…
I suppose when you don't pay firefighters properly, and you don't hire enough of them, because you havent budgeted for them, then you dont need all that "surplus" equipment.
Or maybe you should readjust your priorities in the knowledge that parts of California burn down every year, and take proper steps to help prevent or manage that.
Start with not leaving bushland water reservoirs offline and empty for a year.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/pacific-palisades-reservoir-offline-empty-16…
K.W. , once again you demonstrate you'd do better to stay quiet.
The re-insurers have known about the L.A. risks for decades.
I.e. They will not be re-acting to any of the recent events you suggest because they started reacting decades ago. Of course, MSM will play it up, as will local retail insurers. As will the moronic MAGA crowd.
There are minds far greater than yours evaluating these risk.
And take note - none of these re-insurers have resorted to using short-term partisan politics, nor bigotry, to explain why and what they have done.
KW believes everything he gets from X and FOX news as truth social, including the homeless are causing the fires.
I wonder if the illegals will be rounded up in LA or hired for the rebuild (under the table of course)? How ironic that Mexican Firefighters have been sent it to fight the fires...Trump will be furious.
The lack of water for firefighting hasn’t helped. There is underinsurance in California so the banks will bear some of this. If you consider say 50,000 homes at $1m each, plus cars, contents, businesses, infrastructure losses the financial cost is going to be a very large number.
Yep. The state mandates the premiums too low to cover the risk so the insurers leave the state.
Live in a socialist state , win socialist prizes.
"The most obvious problem with rate regulation is that it restricts the availability of insurance. As the German economist Karl Henrik Borch put it in a landmark article on capital markets in insurance:
If premiums are low, the profitability of the insurance company will also be low, and investors may not be inclined to risk their capital as reserves for an insurance company. If the government imposes too low premiums, the whole system may break down, and high standard insurance may become impossible in a free economy.33
Insurers naturally respond to rate regulation by tightening their underwriting criteria, forcing some consumers to have to turn to the higher-priced residual market for coverage. In extreme cases, rate suppression can lead some insurers to exit the market altogether."
https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Rethinking-Prop-10…
When rates rise sharply in the US whose interest + interest-related entitlement current obligations are already running >100% of receipts, you would not sell gold on that sharp rise in rates.
Far more likely you would buy gold.
Further to that, the Dow Jones Industrial Index now up 260% in fiat value since 2000 but negative 61% in gold terms.
U.S. interest rate volatility is currently about double that of emerging markets. This disparity arises from the swift tightening of U.S. monetary policy, which has led to significant financial distress in emerging economies. Rising U.S. rates create adverse spillover effects, particularly for countries with pre-existing vulnerabilities, causing their local-currency yields to increase nearly twice as much as those in more stable economies.
https://econofact.org/rising-u-s-interest-rates-and-emerging-market-dis…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sea-lice-reported-at-aucklands-mission-ba…
Another joy of global warming.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.