A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Wellington on holiday, meat exporters shift focus, REINZ data late, NZX50 slips, swaps on hold, NZD up slightly, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Liberty Financial has cut -50 bps from its floating home loan rate, to 7.65%. And it has taken the same amount off its 1, 2 and 3 year fixed rates. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Southern Cross partners trimmed their P2P rate to 7.15%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

WELLINGTON ON HOLIDAY
First, for those that had missed it, today is Wellington Anniversary day. Updates from the Capital today have been few.

CHINA DISAPPOINTS, MEAT TRADE SHIFTS
Meat processors are losing interest in the China market, accentuated by the low prices there and some local oversupply. They are shifting product to better paying markets and at this time Europe is favoured. And that is helped because their local producers are bring less to market even as demand stays firm. US markets are taking more beef too on strong demand.

MIA
In 2024 the REINZ released its December 2023 data on January 18. In 2023, it was on the same January 18. So it is fair to say they are later this year. We don't have any indication of a release date yet, but it should be 'soon'.

NZX50 DIPS
Here are the key changes to know about in the New Zealand equity market. As at 3pm, overall prices are -0.4% lower for the NZX50. Oceania, Hallensteins, Investore, and Spark lead the gainers with Kathmandu, Precinct, Vector, and Kiwi Property the main decliners.

JAPANESE MANUFACTURING RECOVERY
Japanese released machinery order data today for November and that brought a much stronger result than expected. Excluding volatile items like ships and power companies, they rose +9.5% from the same month a year ago to a nine month high. And for the first time in more than a year, that propelled the annual levels to a small +1.2% gain. The recent strength comes on top of a good result for October as well.

HOLDING LOW
China held its loan prime rates unchanged today at its January review. The one year LPR, the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, remains at a record low 3.10% and their 5 year, the benchmark for mortgages, stays at a record low 3.60%.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Friday at 4.08%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.56%. The China 10 year bond rate has risen +2 bps to just on 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +8 bps at 4.83% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.76% and up +3 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.63% and up +1 bp from where we opened this morning. Their 2yr is up +2 bps to just on 4.28%, so that positive curve is now at +34 bps.

EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The NZX50 has fallen -0.4% in late trade today. But the ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Monday trade back up +1.5%. Hong Kong is also up +1.5% and Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Futures markets are suggesting that Wall Street will open up +0.5% on the S&P500 when it reopens for Monday trade tomorrow.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price is marginally firmer from this morning but really still just on US$78/bbl in the US, and now just under US$81/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price is up +50 NZc at NZ$63.50/NZU. The best you can say is that it is 'holding' because it really isn't going anywhere. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES MARGINALLY
In early Asian trade, gold is down minor -US$5 from this morning, now at US$2697/oz.

NZD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar has risen +10 bps from this morning, now at 56 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.2 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 54.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 66.8 and up +10 bps to start the week.

BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price has moved down to US$100,168 and and down -4.3% from where we opened this morning. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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