What happened Tuesday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; service sector shrinks too, end of year puff for retail, job ads weak, milk flows up, REINZ says 'tomorrow', swaps stable, NZD rises, & more

[updated]

21st Jan 25, 4:00pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. ~~So far, no other bank has responded to the ASB cuts~~. Update: ANZ has now cut too. More here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Bank of India trimmed some short rates today. Update: ANZ has cut more popular TD rates now too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

ONE WAY LOWER
There was no Christmas joy for NZ's services sector. According to the BNZ-BusinessNZ PSI, activity in the services sector contracted further in December, matching a more contractionary performance in the month from the manufacturing sector as well.

A GOOD PUFF TO END 2024
Monthly retail spending figures ended the year on a stronger footing however after much weakness in spending throughout 2024, their fifth straight monthly rise. But still, year-on-year retail sales were -1.0% lower in December than in December 2023. For all of 2024, retail sales using electronic cards was -2.1% less than for all of 2023. If it wasn't for that November-to-December final momentum rise there would have been little to talk up in 2024 on the retail front.

FEWER JOBS ON OFFER
SEEK said its December job ad levels fell from November and were -down 22% compared to December 2023.

POSITIVE MILK FLOWS
DCANZ data now shows calendar 2024 milk flows were +1.4% higher than in 2023. The December 2024 flow was its highest for a December month since 2020. With a drier January than expected, perhaps this will limit the dairy season gain, but with the peak of the milk curve well and truly passed, any variance is likely to be small for the full 2024/25 season.

EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
Tomorrow, not only do we get the Q4-2024 CPI update (where little-change from Q3 is expected), we also get another full Global Dairy Trade auction. It is shaping up to be a good one with futures pricing suggesting WMP will be up +2.5% from last week's Pulse event, and SMP up more than +5% on the same basis.

EYES ON REINZ
The REINZ says they will release their December results at 9am tomorrow.

NZX50 DIPS
Here are the key changes to know about in the New Zealand equity market. As at 3pm, overall prices are down a minor -0.1% with Kathmandu, Vulcan Steel, Vista Group, and F&P Healthcare lead today's gainers as Tourism Holdings, Hallenstein, Contact, and Vector all decline

"THE PEOPLE" HOLD THE PEOPLE DOWN
In China, they are increasingly concerned about "social stability" and are preparing for a muscular crackdown if there are any protests during the imminent Spring Festival/CNY period.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps on Monday at 4.06%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 4.48%. The China 10 year bond rate has risen +1 bp to just on 1.67%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps at 4.76% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.71% and down -5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55% and down -8 bps from where we were this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -4 bps to just on 4.24%, so that positive curve is now at +31 bps.

EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The NZX50 has dipped -0.1% in late trade today. But the ASX200 is up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trade down -0.1%. Hong Kong is up +0.3% and Shanghai is down -0.4%. Singapore is down -0.6% at its open. It is both MLKing Birthday and Inauguration Day in the US, and most markets there are closed.

OIL DIPS
The oil price is down -US$1.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$76.50/bbl in the US, and now just under US$80/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price is up +50 NZc at NZ$63.50/NZU. The best you can say is that it is 'holding' because it really isn't going anywhere. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$17 from this morning, now at US$2715/oz.

NZD FIRMS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar has risen +40 bps from this time yesterday, now at 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 90.5 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 54.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 67.1 and up +30 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN VOLATILE
The bitcoin price has moved up to US$101,743 and and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. But in between it was up at US$108,248 but has fallen sharply since. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.5%.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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113 Comments

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 4:02pm 1737428576

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 4:03pm 1737428585

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 4:03pm 1737428593

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 4:03pm 1737428603

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 4:03pm 1737428610

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 4:37pm 1737430645

Boring.

by Baywatch | 21st Jan 25, 4:42pm 1737430943

Go back to storm chasing Yvil..

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 6:19pm 1737436746

Do you guys think I'm pro Trump ?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 25, 6:56pm 1737438966

Must dust off my " MAGA " cap .... got it on TradeMe ... ... not been used since Ardern buggered off ...

by Baywatch | 22nd Jan 25, 6:58am 1737482294

After that post ..yes?

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 4:52pm 1737431542

and what a speech.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 5:24pm 1737433495

So better than you get at the local pub at closing time then?

by M0ralHazard | 21st Jan 25, 9:49pm 1737449383

Musk had a pretty interesting speech too. What makes it worse is that he didn't immediately put out a comment saying he didn't intend to do a Nazi Salute and distancing himself from it

by Squishy | 21st Jan 25, 4:08pm 1737428914

How is CaNZUK going? I've not heard much about it recently but it seems like a good time to step on the accelerator.

by Nifty1 | 21st Jan 25, 4:08pm 1737428939

You missed the $ symbol Yvil...

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 4:46pm 1737431163

I was just really surprised that David Chaston refrained from mentioning Trump, especially given his outlandish first few decisions as President, such as pardoning the people in jail for trying to mount a coup, when Trump lost the election 4 years ago.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 25, 4:49pm 1737431376

Trump is boring. And that pardon has nothing to do with economics or finance.

I am delighted it wasn’t mentioned. But of course it’s in the comments!

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 6:21pm 1737436897

"Trump is boring"

I think he is many things, a liar, a convicted criminal, a megalomaniac, unpredictable, divisive, selfish, loud, ignorant, corrupt and many other things… but boring…? Nope, Biden was boring, but Trump is not !

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 25, 6:26pm 1737437188

Yes, boring. Intellectually very boring.

I guess if you like a tacky showman for ‘entertainment’, he’s not

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 25, 7:52pm 1737442328

It's like dating a hot crazy chick.

Initially, the craziness is exciting and wild.

After not long, tedious and repetitive.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 25, 8:05pm 1737443147

Spoken, obviously, from experience?

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 25, 5:41pm 1737434491

Amazing he's pardoned them when for so long folk were insisting they were Antifa, haha. Hilarious, these times.

by E46 | 21st Jan 25, 7:05pm 1737439512

Denali > McKinley

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 25, 4:12pm 1737429128

Apologies for a bit of a tangent concerning equities but someone might be able to answer this re my my modest holding in ANHBC - ANZ preference shares. Quarterly dividend notated on NZX and Computershare as paid 18.01.2025. Now that being a Saturday I reasonably expected the credit yesterday 20th. But no it was not actioned until today seemingly because the 20th was the Wellington Anniversary Day. Yet the NZX was operating and so were all interbank transactions. Had thought delayed crediting would only occur when falling on weekends and/or public holidays so this one has me stumped.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 25, 4:46pm 1737431189

The Flintstones are more technically advanced and competent than Computershare. Share registries operate like the Monty Python skit on insurance companies.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 5:10pm 1737432643

Have you emailed them and asked for an explanation? If their answer not satisfactory then send their response to ComCom and raise a case.

And ignore the infantile nonsense from J.C.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 25, 5:23pm 1737433439

Computershare replied with the Wellington Anniversary as being the reason. Have responded questioning this again because that is not a national holiday. Have also emailed NZX but no reply yet. All rather intriguing. The toast always falls on the buttered side doesn’t it.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 25, 5:26pm 1737433606

And ignore the infantile nonsense from J.C.

You ever communicated with or used Computershare or share registries?

by kiwikidsnz | 21st Jan 25, 6:09pm 1737436199

I have...& endorse your comment.

Computershare monopoly is the only reason I haven't bought Kiwibonds. Surely Treasury could offer them directly via RealMe.

by Mountie | 21st Jan 25, 5:40pm 1737434438

Computershare is hands down the worst registry for any sort of customer service.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 25, 6:21pm 1737436890

Computershare Limited is a publicly listed company. Founded in 1978 in Aussie and likes to claim it's a global leader in transfer agency, employee equity plans, and stakeholder communications.

Customers have reported overcharging for transactions, with fees significantly higher than those charged by other brokerages. For example, a $25 service fee was noted for liquidating stocks, which is considered excessive compared to typical fees of around $0.50 at other firms.

The verification process for account access has been criticized as overly complicated. Users have described experiences where minor errors in personal information led to account lockouts, requiring lengthy procedures to regain access.

There are complaints about untimely execution of trades and delays in receiving funds after transactions. Some users reported waiting over a week for checks to arrive after stock sales, which is significantly longer than industry standards.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 7:01pm 1737439273

I own ANZ shares and I hate CS

by J.C. | 21st Jan 25, 4:18pm 1737429489

Via Tarric Brooker about the disconnect between incomes and house prices in Aussie, since the ABS Wage Price Index began in 1997, housing prices have risen by 483%, wages have risen by 127.5%.

In Q3 1997 the benchmark owner occupier variable rate was 6.7%, only 0.5% higher than today's actual payable rates.

I can see a problem here. Don't expect to see any similar analysis related to Aotearoa in Granny or other parts of the MSM / bank commentaries.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 4:43pm 1737430983

Its as much a credit boom as it is a house price boom.... queue dog in house fire meme.....

by Colin Cameron | 21st Jan 25, 4:45pm 1737431105

Also something I have had a brief glance at. BHP hiding the files along with the federal governtment hiding not paying workers the proper wage. Alot here think get a job in a mine make big money. Well there is alot more to it than that which it always is.

by Mr_Jolly | 21st Jan 25, 4:58pm 1737431909

Maybe houses are 4x nicer than they were back in 1997

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 7:01pm 1737439312

maybe

by WinHonourHelp | 21st Jan 25, 9:17pm 1737447449

Compare house price growth to share market, gold etc. Oh and house are so cheap in Bitcoin don't you know, devalued massively.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jan 25, 7:45pm 1737441954

Or other places to live are 4x worse.

Judging by the high demand for migration, potentially it's more than 4x.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 25, 4:22pm 1737429764

Hey David ! ... can we seat you next to Kim Dotcom when you're extradited to the US to face a comeuppance for your anti-Trump rhetoric ? ...

... strap yourselves in , folks .... the next 4 years promise to be a wild & exciting ride ...

Sugar on your porridge , Mr Chaston ?

by M0ralHazard | 21st Jan 25, 4:39pm 1737430797

What's the quote, "when someone shows you who they are, believe them"?

by AN Other | 21st Jan 25, 4:42pm 1737430929

Did I miss a Trump related story at the top of the page?

by Zwifter | 21st Jan 25, 4:46pm 1737431191

Sugar ? God the rest of us are going to need Cocaine on our porridge to get through this.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 25, 6:48pm 1737438512

... suffering from TDS ? ... that's okay , there's a lot of it about ... our own David Chaston has a particularly virulent strain of TDS ... and , everyone at TV1 is riddled with it ...

by Pragmatist | 21st Jan 25, 8:05pm 1737443133

I'll stick to popcorn.... It's going to be 'interesting', and at times a bit like a slow motion train wreck that you can't take your eyes off.

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 25, 6:29pm 1737437370

David believes in very successful economic ideals like free markets, free trade, etc. He’s entitled to believe in those if he wants

I guess we may see what happens when you abandon them (although unlikely as Trump will probably not implement half of what he campaigned on).

by Kate | 21st Jan 25, 8:45pm 1737445531

Nothing exciting about ignorance of and protection from the rule of law, Gummy.

But it will be tragically interesting.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 4:41pm 1737430914

If David ever gets mentioned for 'speaking truth to power', it will - as just about anyone else on the receiving end has experienced - do heaps for their business's profile. I can't wait ...

by J.C. | 21st Jan 25, 4:45pm 1737431109

Still shorting Treasuries.

"I've been doing this for 49 years, and we're probably going from the most anti-business administration to the opposite. We do a lot of talking to CEOs and companies on the ground. And I'd say CEOs are somewhere between relieved and giddy. So we're a believer in animal spirits".

- Stanley Druckemiller

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/20/stanley-druckenmiller-says-animal-spiri…

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 5:22pm 1737433320

"Still shorting Treasuries."

On your own account, J.C.? I had no idea you were so well endowed.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 25, 5:34pm 1737434050

The mighty Stanley Druckenmiller is still shorting Treasuries through his family office.

That's all.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 25, 4:47pm 1737431244

Personally, I find the whole Trump stuff boring. Whether you hate him or love him, he’s been democratically elected in the USA. It’s not our country. For most people his existence and role as President will mean diddly squat.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 5:18pm 1737433131

"For most people his existence and role as President will mean diddly squat."

This is true.

Most people will get poorer while the billionaires get richer.

That's a good thing?

Does it mean "diddly squat"? Somehow I think not.

Sharpen your guillotines people. (And if you don't have one, stand by, my IPO will go public soon.)

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 25, 6:29pm 1737437365

Do you think kiwis will be affected in any material way? I don’t, not really

I am far more concerned with what OUR government is or isn’t doing

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 25, 6:32pm 1737437534

Mostly agree. He could (and probably should) force us to spend much more on defence, not sure where that money would come from. And we may also import his inflation.

by kiwikidsnz | 21st Jan 25, 6:17pm 1737436670

"...he’s been democratically elected in the USA"

Overwhelmingly.

A point totally lost on TV1 news tonight going full TDS. And I'm not a Trump fan.

by EdwardD | 21st Jan 25, 6:57pm 1737439063

I totally agree. I accidentally left TV1 on (after watching the Chase) & listened to the anti- Trump comments. I had to switch off as the media should be there to inform, not shove their views down our throats. Trump won the popular vote. If we value democracy, we need to sit on the sidelines and keep our opinions to ourselves.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 25, 7:06pm 1737439567

Yes

And also think about why he’s in power, and what the centre and centre-left are doing wrong

by Te Kooti | 21st Jan 25, 7:34pm 1737441260

The media are left-wing so it kind of makes sense. Not only that, they are increasingly becoming irrelevant because of that bias. Remember, not a single "main-stream" media outlet was picking a Trump victory yet his victory was overwhelming. Why would anyone pay for that quality of journalism?

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 25, 7:49pm 1737442199

Not sure about US media, but I find NZ media to flip flop arbitrarily (there are the stalwarts like Hosking that never would). Remember all the grief Labour we’re getting over crime, education, cost of living, etc before the election, now that seems to have all gone away. The election prior to that, the media were labours best mate.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 25, 7:58pm 1737442700

Remember, not a single "main-stream" media outlet was picking a Trump victory yet his victory was overwhelming. Why would anyone pay for that quality of journalism?

Most of the political experts use dodgy panels for their polling. Not worth the time or effort. The degenerates on Polymarket were far more accurate in understanding. Traditional polls showed a much tighter race, often within the margin of error. For ex, Nate Silver's simulations indicated that Harris had a substantial chance of winning, contradicting Polymarket's predictions.

The prediction market's ability to reflect market sentiment—where bettors risk money based on their beliefs—was cited as a reason for its perceived accuracy over polls, which are based on surveys and opinions.

https://www.uc.edu/news/articles/2024/12/election-results-show-potentia…

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 25, 8:17pm 1737443863

I don’t agree at all that ‘the media are left wing’. Many are. Many are also centre-right. And many are in the middle.

Also many ‘progressives’ who think they are of the left, really aren’t. Well, at least not in traditional terms

by bender | 21st Jan 25, 9:16pm 1737447415

Wrong, wrong. Won by 1.5%, not overwhelmingly. Didn;t reach 50% of the vote either. Surprised it wan't by more in that racist, sexist country.

by kiwikidsnz | 22nd Jan 25, 8:42am 1737488539

Won the Presidency, House, Senate & the popular vote = overwhelming.

In a democracy people who don't vote get the government they deserve.

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 25, 6:22pm 1737436955

Agree. I much preferred Biden to Trump, I may have celebrated slightly when Biden won 4 years ago, but probably only for a few minutes. Trump supporters are weird people, it’s actually quite worrying.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 25, 4:48pm 1737431321

With the inauguration of Donald Trump as president , 56 of Facebook's 58 human sex identities will be crying themselves to sleep tonight ... sorry to the thems , theys & its ....

... I identify as a bloke , so heeee heeeeee heeeeeee ...

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 4:52pm 1737431572

Ask your People and Culture person what the + stands for in LGBTQIA+

by RookieInvestor | 21st Jan 25, 4:57pm 1737431874

I'd have to ask them what the I and A stand for also.

by AN Other | 21st Jan 25, 5:07pm 1737432434

I = Intersex

A = Anything you like

I might be wrong about Intersex though.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Jan 25, 5:23pm 1737433419

Friggin' hell !!!

How fragile are you people to even care?

by Baywatch | 21st Jan 25, 5:33pm 1737433993

It says alot about the people who make an issue out of this...seems they may be scared of something inwards about themselves...storing it it the closet perhaps?

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 6:21pm 1737436885

I store my double ended jelly dildo's in the closet, where do you store yours? (They are too long to fit in the bedside table....).

Sometimes you can find them in the dishwasher for cleaning.

by Baywatch | 22nd Jan 25, 7:04am 1737482689

Makes sense now...

by M0ralHazard | 21st Jan 25, 9:53pm 1737449633

They are too busy fighting over culture war nonsense to buy your guillotines Chris. Isn't that the point of it?

by chemistpeter@g… | 21st Jan 25, 7:28pm 1737440886

+ = New mental illnesses to be discovered.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 4:49pm 1737431341

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/539482/joe-biden-issues-preemptive-par…

I saw this coming, now they are free to tell the truth about Fauci, its not going to be pretty.

by Nifty1 | 21st Jan 25, 4:54pm 1737431662

More craziness...how do people (that aren't 'conspiricy theorist') explain why Fauci was pardoned...

by Zwifter | 21st Jan 25, 5:45pm 1737434746

We have not even started with getting to the bottom on the origins of Covid. Personally I have a pretty good idea what happened but we are unlikely to ever get confirmation. They love to label you as a conspiracy theorist but that's just a diversion. One thing is for certain, a few people out there know exactly what happened, but will it ever see the light of day.

by Te Kooti | 21st Jan 25, 5:50pm 1737435029

We just need to "flatten the curve", remember that!! Nek Minnit, locking NZ citizens out of the country for 2 years and running a raffle for quarrantine slots. Parent dies, too bad - some Kiwi on holiday to Fiji needs it. I am your single source of truth.

What a total cluster that all was. She went full Mao.

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 25, 6:16pm 1737436563

Kids, help your grandparents navigate the internet.

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 25, 6:23pm 1737437016

The quarantine worked though, just one person sneaking through could have kept us in lockdown or restrictions for months. I don’t remember people complaining when we were Covid free had live sport events while the rest of the world were in and out of lockdowns and restrictions.

by Te Kooti | 21st Jan 25, 6:56pm 1737439010

Yeah, Super Rugby - that's what mattered.

by mfd | 21st Jan 25, 8:22pm 1737444130

Yeah the border shutdown worked wonders. Kept the disease out until it had weakened and vaccines were in all arms that wanted them.

Some questionable decisions made for sure but the freedom we had to operate and travel within New Zealand was remarkable.

by profile | 21st Jan 25, 9:46pm 1737449175

Cool story and only cost $120 billion to the unborn kiwis, lost kids education, throwing out the NZ Bill of Rights, a PMship and a cushy job at Otago.

"...the 17 more vulnerable countries (those with per capita nominal GDP < $30,000, Gini > 0.35 for income inequality and/or ≥2.5% of their population living in poverty) had very high excess deaths compared with 2017–2019, while the other 17 less vulnerable countries had deaths during 2020–2023 that were comparable to 2017–2019."

Variability in excess deaths across countries with different vulnerability during 2020–2023

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2309557120

No learning loss in Sweden during the pandemic: Evidence from primary school reading assessments

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883035522000891

by Murray Falconer | 22nd Jan 25, 5:53am 1737478411

in all arms that wanted them

My recollection is slightly different.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 25, 8:19pm 1737443978

And covid is still prevalent. But we don’t stop the world, now. My wife is only just getting over a dose of the dreaded lurgy

by johno1234 | 21st Jan 25, 8:21pm 1737444071

Thank God the DJs got let in and out though!

by 26@Main | 21st Jan 25, 6:04pm 1737435894

Personally I have a pretty good idea what happened

Lol, ofcourse you do .... spill.

by jbman | 21st Jan 25, 6:18pm 1737436739

but will it ever see the light of day.

I believe it will, but unfortunately a lot of people will choose to bury their heads in the sand anyway.

It's like debating a young-earth creationist. It doesn't matter how much evidence there is to the contrary; the earth is no more than 2000 years old, and anyone who claims otherwise is a heritic.

by Kate | 21st Jan 25, 8:57pm 1737446221

I thought it pretty certain to be a lab leak. That type of gain of function experimentation was not permitted in the US - so the work they wanted done was contracted out to China. What's the big deal? This type of GoF research was done across multiple labs across multiple countries. No conspiracy theory needed.

by rastus1 | 22nd Jan 25, 8:52am 1737489155

You seem to have overlooked how any mentioning those with evidence of such were locked out of FB and other outlets. This view was not allowed to be discussed at all.

by Threecents | 21st Jan 25, 9:52pm 1737449570

This article might give people an idea

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-suspends-ecohealth-alliance-peter-daszak-after-covid-19-evidence-uncovered-house

EcoHealth Alliance, the nonprofit that Dr. Anthony Fauci used to offshore risky gain-of-function research 6 months before the Obama administration banned it, has finally been cut off by the US Government - along with its former president, Peter Daszak, for a period of five years following scrutiny over its work in Wuhan, China ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic.

...

"Given that a lab-related incident involving gain-of-function research is the most likely origin of COVID-19, EcoHealth and its former President should never again receive a single cent from the U.S. taxpayer," Comer continued.

by J.C. | 21st Jan 25, 5:52pm 1737435170

DGM flowing thick and fast out of Aussie at the moment.

Australian insolvency appointments surge in six months to December as hospitality businesses collapse

Business failures have surged by 50 per cent this financial year as elevated operating expenses coupled with cost of living pressures and an aggressive crackdown on unpaid debt by the tax office force companies to close.

Last year’s record high of 11,053 is expected to be smashed over coming months, with insolvency appointments forecast to reach up to 16,000 this financial year, even if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates.

Via The Australian (paywalled)

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 25, 6:13pm 1737436418

Here it makes the news each time a restaurant shuts down.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 7:40pm 1737441615

Hate to tell you but stuff and herald are not the home of financial reporting anymore..... that tat is produced in Manilla and is largely international news published 2 days late so its cheaper to buy, and a few cat up tree stories.

I just turned on through TV channels, TV1-3 we have the block Aussie, rich house poor house and a Master Chief, turned back off, tho may watch some sport, the only reason I have Sky.

the herald and stuff, both full of crap, Guardian ok but way to leftie for me...

I may have to finally suck it up and buy an AFR Sub.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 25, 8:23pm 1737444232

Yeah The Guardian is ok, but even though I am left of centre I still get put off by some of it

I quite like The Telegraph, have toyed with idea of a subscription

I quite liked The Australian when I lived in Aus, even though it is right of centre

by WinHonourHelp | 21st Jan 25, 9:12pm 1737447131

I subscribe to The Telegraph, it's ok, has a wide range of contributors and is the best source of US news. UK news and politics is so depressing though! And don't expect deep analysis and quality graphics like it used to offer.

by Averageman | 21st Jan 25, 6:57pm 1737439030

Well in some ways it's just a larger, stupider version of housing speculand. At least there is real work in mining camps if their banking system gasses you.

Let them eat cake, or rock if need be...

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 7:00pm 1737439208

Mortgage rates are dropping, even though the OCR hasn't yet.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 7:21pm 1737440463

One could argue that banks are front footing the Feb expected 25-50 points, due to not much new biz and insane competition, I suspect there books are reducing due to repayments rather then increasing due to new lending... no one like shrinking profits.

Sales are very low and I also suspect some are cashback shopping

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 7:28pm 1737440903

Yes, and some of us, not many, saw that coming. Others argued just last week that the RB won't cut by 0.5%

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 7:30pm 1737441048

can you please forward me there Feb decision.... I may want to place a trade if you know the result.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 25, 8:37pm 1737445025

"can you please forward me their Feb decision"

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 25, 7:28pm 1737440927

This seems to have happened prior to the last few OCR decreases. Sometimes you actually get worse rates after the decrease as it was already priced in and their special rates end.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 7:32pm 1737441163

they will be giving the 25 points now not may will be rolling off as not many people settle houses in January ... therefore limited hit

mortgages tend to be locked to settlement dates in general, people like to move in before xmas, nothing is purchased in late dec or jan as we are all on the beach

by kiwikidsnz | 21st Jan 25, 7:14pm 1737440044

Roy Morgan poll update for December. Quite a different picture from last weeks Curia poll.

"Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for December 2024 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 51.5% (up 7.5% points) and clearly ahead of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 44% (down 6.5% points).

For the National-led Government there were increases for all three coalition parties led by National, up 2.5% points to 31% and joined by ACT, up 4% points to 13% and NZ First, up 1% point to 7.5%. This is the highest level of support for ACT since the 2023 New Zealand Election."

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9813-nz-national-voting-intention-de…

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 7:25pm 1737440746

I expected this. But the public are now fixated on the economy. Its a case of performance and results or we hold the right to vote differently. My issue is I see changing deck chairs but no articulate vision.

I see their only play is foreign investment and I am already looking for a Chinese speaking real estate agent. $5mil here we come.

Even my partner who has visions for this place says $5 mil, take it, we can relocate to Cambridge and get bigger place for 3mil and bank the difference.

by RickStrauss | 21st Jan 25, 8:15pm 1737443750

Yep, all they've got is selling the silverware out from under following generations while expecting the same to fund their pensions. Entitlement Mentality aplenty, but no economic plan beyond.

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 25, 7:25pm 1737440730

You have to wonder what the real margin of error is in these polls. Every one tells a completely different story, either people are constantly changing their minds or they are a complete waste of time.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 25, 7:29pm 1737440990

If you get a cell call from a number you do not know, do you answer it?

by kiwikidsnz | 21st Jan 25, 7:48pm 1737442091

The RM link has the margin of error table at the bottom. IIRC the Curia poll also claimed 3%.

As I've previously mentioned, over the last year the RM response breakdown shows the demographics that consistently support the Coalition are everyone except child bearing age women (18-49).

by Baywatch | 22nd Jan 25, 7:09am 1737482995

Dreaming if you actually believe that...word on the street is getting worse by the day, even from true blue supporters. They need to post some wins .. it's nearly half time?

by rastus1 | 22nd Jan 25, 8:55am 1737489348

I expect Act will be the beneficiary of ex blues.