Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society (NBS) cut its fixed rates today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut its RapidSave account by -55 bps to 3.20%. General Finance and the Nelson Building Society (NBS) cut TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A QUICK IMPROVEMENT
Housing affordability continues improving for first home buyers. In fact, that turnaround has happened quite quickly. Lower house prices and lower interest rates have complimented the modest increase in take-home pay to create a virtuous shift.
MORE JOBS, BUT TOO SOON TO SAY ITS A TREND
Filled jobs rose for a third straight month in January, adding about +8000 in the month. But they are still lower than year-ago levels. An up-trend is not really evident yet however, so perhaps it is best to say this market is stabilising.
NO CHANGE, NOT ESPECIALY POSITIVE
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey was basically unchanged in February from January, and basically holding on to the level it rose to in September. The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item, the best retail indicator, is also little-changed but also still quite negative. Inflation expectations were little changed too, but high at 4.0%, continuing their stable run. So no easing of these expectations.
PICKING UP THE PACE I
The total amount owed for housing mortgages hit $370 bln in January, up +4.0% from a year ago, and the fastest pace of expansion in two years. For banks the growth was +4.3%, for non-banks their share fell -15%.
PICKING UP THE PACE II
Even though household bank balances fell in January from December in the normal post holiday shift (down -$710 mln), the amounts diverted to term deposits actually rose +$473 mln. Actually, this is a normal holiday shift although this year the rise was only half of January 2024 shift, and a quarter of the January 2023 shift.
PICKING UP THE PACE III, FOR SOME
Lending to business rose +3.3% in January from a year ago, a 21 month high. But rural lending actually fell -0.6%.
PAYING FOR THE COSTS OF GROWTH FROM THE GROWTH
The Property Council today claimed that housing affordability is "an increasingly pressing issue" which justifies less pressure on developers to pay for the infrastructure required for housing developments. Supporting that, the Government announced work to ease the burden, pushing cost recoveries on to the future owners of the developed land, providing for targeted rates, and broadening existing tools to support value capture and cost recovery. They also acknowledged the roll-out of the Milldale model hasn't worked and the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Act will need a substantial overhaul. More here.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is unchanged today at 3pm from yesterday's close, but that still leaves it down -1.8% for the week. From a year ago it is up +6.5%. Vista Group, Summerset, Port of Tauranga, and Contact lead lead today's gainers with Kathmandu, Meridian, NZX, and F&P Healthcare all topping the decliners.
PROFILE UPDATES
Users of our NZX50 company profiles should know that we have updated Channel Infrastructure (CHI, #35), NZX (NZX, #39), and Summerset (SUM, #16) with their latest annual results.
A SMART MOVE
Ratings agency S&P says Port of Tauranga's acquisition of an effective 50% stake in Northport should bolster its competitive position. With this control they say they will be in a better position to withstand the coming tariff uncertainties to trade.
CHANGES IMMINENT
Today, February 28, 2025 is the last day you can comment without being a supporter. And that is also the last day you can get our daily or weekly email newsletters without being a supporter.
'SEE, I TOLD YOU'
Ahead of an industry conference, the Insurance Council release the results of a survey they commissioned that supports its stance on climate change resilience. One in two New Zealanders believe the Government should invest more to protect people and properties from extreme weather events, according to a new survey. They did not release the survey details however.
THE LIABILITY NET WIDENS
The courts have agreed now that a CFO can be personally liable for public company continuous disclosure requirement breaches, not just CEOs and directors. The FMA has won its case against the CFO of CBL.
FASTER THAN THEIR RIVALS
Fonterra said that its January milk collections were up +4.6% from the same month last year, up +3.6% over the last full year. They also reported that the full industry collections here were up +2.9% in January, up +2.0% for the full year. It is an impressive market share gain for a company that used to be regarded as slow & lazy.
SCAM TSUNAMI
Australian company regulator ASIC says they are shutting down about 130 investment scam websites per week (yes, almost 20 per day), as this type of fraud explodes. The claim they have now shut down more than 10,000 of them so far.
SWAP RATES LOWER
Wholesale swap rates could be a bit lower today on negative global trends, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.76% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 1.80%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.61% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.58% and down -1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.22% and down another -6 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is down -7 bps at 4.02%, so that positive curve is little-changed at +20 bps.
EQUITIES DROP HARD, NZX50 LOOKS GOOD BY COMPARISON AGAIN
The NZX50 is unchanged in late Friday trade. However the ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down a chunky -2.8% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.4%, and Shanghai is down -0.6% its open. Singapore has also opened down -0.3%. Wall Street was down a sharpish -1.6% on the S&P500 in Thursday trade.
OIL FIRMS IN THE US, NOT ELSEWHERE
The oil price is up +US$1, now just on US$70/bbl in the US, and over US$73/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STILL IN RANGE
The carbon price is still within its range, and today is up a marginal +10c at NZ$63.10/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$36 from this time yesterday, now at US$2876/oz.
NZD MUCH SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar has fallen -90 bps from yesterday at this time, now at 56.1 USc as the USD surges. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 54 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 66.2 and down -50 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN RETREATS FURTHER
The bitcoin price is down -4.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$81,901. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.3%.
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