Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
BUSINESS BORROWING RATE CHANGES
ANZ said it has cut three key business borrowing rates today, including their Business Bank Indicator rate to 11.85%, their Agri Current Account rate to 10.05%, and their Business Overdraft rate to 13.85%.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are none here today. But this review of savings account options may be useful. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SIGNS OF LIFE I
Stats NZ figures show that manufacturing and wholesale sale figures flipped into positive territory in the December quarter after both going backwards in the September quarter. The meat and dairy sectors were strong contributors. It is the agri-business sector pulling the economy up.
THE BIGGEST WHINERS ARE THE BIGGEST GAINERS
In another release, StatsNZ said that the total number of filled jobs (from employer payroll returns to the IRD) were down -1.6% to 2.285 mln as at December 2024. It was the public sector hiring that is keeping this from falling faster. Education (up +1.9%), healthcare (up +2.4%), and "arts & recreation" (up +2.8%) were the largest rises in the year. IT (-8.6%), administration (-6.8%), and construction (-5.8%) had the largest retreats. It was similar for compensation. Overall earnings were up +4.5% for the year, with education up +5.5%, healthcare up +8.2%, and public administration earnings up +7.0%.
SIGNS OF LIFE II
ANZ said today that a review of activity by its credit card holders shows overall card spend growth rose +1% in February from January, a welcome result after recent weak outturns. The types of spending most sensitive to interest rates (housing, durables, and discretionary spending, including clothing) are still experiencing the largest falls versus a year earlier. Tourism categories of spending are well down versus a year ago. Business goods & services are now top for annual growth.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 has dropped -1.3% in today's session so far, extending its monthly decline to -4.1%. Despite the slump, the index remains up +4% year-on-year. The down day on global risk aversion was led down by Summerset, Infratil and Freightways. Vista, Vital, Tower and Auckland Airports were among the few gainers
A BIG IMPORTANT IP PROTECTION WIN IN CHINA
German controlled, but locally listed horticulture marketer T&G Global said today it has won an important IP protection case in the Chinese court system, in fact at their top court, the Supreme People’s Court of the People’s Republic of China. This is precedent-setting and will allow them to move against IP theft in China, and protect their local production of the ENVY apple variety by its licensee.
MUSK ALTERNATIVES EXPAND
For mobile phone users attracted to the One.NZ-Starlink option, but turned off by its Elon Musk ownership (as Tesla is finding, not to mention the recent SpaceX "issues"), there will be an alternative soon in New Zealand. Telco 2degrees said it is aiming for a 2026 launch with AST SpaceMobile - with 4G/5G broadband from mega satellites, allowing users to avoid the Musk odors.
WE ARE HIRING
interest.co.nz needs an experienced business or economics journalist to work from our Auckland office. More here.
AND SO IS REALESTATE.CO.NZ
In what appears to be a sudden decision, the chief executive of the REINZ, Jen Baird, has resigned, to be immediately replaced in an acting capacity by long-time manager Rowan Dixon.
SOLID GAIN TO THREE YEAR HIGH
The Australian consumer sentiment survey by Westpac/Melbourne Institute reported a solid improvement in March, and taking it to its highest level since May 2022.
SLIPPING BACK TO DECLINE
Meanwhile the NAB business sentiment survey for Australia reversed in February in their report released today. They said business conditions rose marginally in February, with small lifts in both trading conditions and profitability. However, there was a notable fall in business confidence which fell -6 points, largely offsetting the improvement seen in January.
AUSSIE HOUSING VALUES RUN OUT OF PUFF
The total value of housing in Australia owned by households reached AU$10.6 tln as at December 2024, up +4.4% from a year ago. That is a AU$448 bln rise in a year, but far less than the +8.1% rise in the year to December 2023, or +AU$760 bln. If we included the dwelling stock owned by others, the rise to December 2024 was also up +4.4%, and that adds another AU$440 bln, taking the total value of Aussie housing stock to AU$11 tln. Interestingly, all the 2024 rise happened in Q1-2024 - total values were flat for the rest of the year even after their new builds were added. (This para has been updated with corrected total values. H/T AW)
SUDDEN ABOUT TURN
The January Japanese household spending survey released today delivered a large shock, with spending falling the most in one month since 2021. That dragged their year-on-year gain down to just +0.8% from +2.7% in December. No-one saw this coming, although it has to be said there have been other December/January shocks in the past and all followed by a recovery in February. All the same, perhaps Japanese households are suddenly turning fearful about what lies ahead, with reason this time.
SWAP RATES SOFT, LONG RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally softer again today, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.70% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.40% today. The China 10 year bond rate is up another +4 bps at 1.89%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.65% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.62% and down -2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.17% and down -11 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -15 bps at 3.84%, so that positive curve is now at +33 bps.
EQUITIES ALL IN BIG RETREATS
The NZX50 is down -1.3% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is also down -1.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -2.3% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.1%, and Shanghai is down -0.4% at its open. Singapore has opened down -1.6%. The S&P500 fell -2.7% in Monday Wall Street trade, spooked by how the US Administration is managing the US economy. But at least it was a recovery from the -3.5% drop an hour before their close.
OIL FALLS
The oil price is -US$1 softer from this time yesterday and now just over US$65.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$69/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE GETS MINOR BOUNCE
The carbon price is up a minor +50c today at NZ$61.75/NZU on improved volumes. That is just off its six month low. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$22 from this time yesterday, now at US$2889/oz.
NZD SUFFERS AS A COMMODITY CURRENCY
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps at 56.9 USc from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 52.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just on 66.4 and down -30 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN DOWN AT FOUR MONTH LOW
The bitcoin price is down -3.4% from this time yesterday, now at US$79,136. Volatility of the past 24 hours has again been very high at just on +/- 4.5%.
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