What happened Thursday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; ANZ trims TD rates, TradeMe & QV describe a strong buyers market, immigration stays low, tourism recovers, electricity demand low, swaps and NZD stable, & more

[updated]

13th Mar 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. Update: ANZ has cut -10 bps from all its TD offers 3 months to 1 year. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

WAY MORE SELLERS THAN BUYERS
Ten-year high stock levels on Trade Me Property are giving buyers plenty of choice as the summer season winds down. More than 49,000 residential properties are listed on the portal.

LOWER INTEREST RATES AREN'T HELPING
Meanwhile QV reported that house values remained flat over summer despite falling interest rates.

CHEAPER BUT NOT NECESSARILY AFFORDABLE
Realestate.co.nz data is showing rents are falling, especially in Wellington where they are down -8.0% in a year. In Auckland its a -4.1% fall. In Canterbury rents are on hold but renters there are paying the highest proportion of income on rent.

A MINOR FACTOR NOW
The low levels of net migration we have seen since July 2024 continued in January, with less than +4000 arriving on a net basis in the month. From a year ago, total arrivals were 155,300 and down -31% from the same year to January 2024, departures were 122,800 on that same basis, so there was a net gain from migration of +32,500 and well below the +121,800 in the prior equivalent year.

QUEENSTOWN LEADS THE TOURISM RECOVERY
January inbound tourism data out today brought a jump in visitors from China, edging out the rise from the USA as our second main inbound market. Australia remains our largest source (now 38%) and growth from there remains strong. But it is still not back to pre-pandemic levels. But there is one region back to pre-pandemic levels: Queenstown.

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FALLS TO EIGHT YEAR LOW
MBIE reported that Q4-2024 industrial demand for electricity was unusually low. They said as a consequence, total electricity generation fell to its lowest level for a December quarter since 2016. Most of the fall was by fossil fuel generation, so that emissions from electricity generation also feel to a record low. Behind it all is a growing de-industrialisation and industrial hollowing out.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 was higher by a minor +0.3% in the morning session but has reversed this afternoon to be down -0.1% so far, to be down -1.3% over the past month, and up +3.9% over the past year. There are 37 gainers today led by Synlait (+2.2%), Auckland Airport (+1.8%), and Mercury, a2 Milk, Goodman, EBOS and Heartland all up +1.3%. There are 45 decliners, led by NZME's -2.5%, Gentrack (-2.3%, and Freightways (-1.9%). Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5%. In addition SkyTV said it had won the rights for the upcoming British & Irish Lions tour of Australia. Ryman said it had completed the retail part of its recent fundraising. The retail part raised $280 mln (less fees), meaning Ryman has now raised a total of $1 bln under the Placement and Entitlement Offer announced on February 24, 2025.

HIGHER SAFE HAVEN DEMAND
There was another surge in demand for today's NZ Government Bonds on tender with almost $2.5 bln offered in 156 bids. This was more than the huge $2.485 bln demand we noted on February 20, 2025 and is only exceeded by pandemic and GFC demand records. Only 33 bids were successful. YTM comparisons are not so relevant this time because two of the three maturities have been offered for more than 20 weeks.

TAX FRAUD BY EX-TAX AGENT GETS HD
A former tax agent was sentenced to the maximum length of home detention possible for sustained fax fraud. Chafic Georges, appearing on 19 tax fraud charges, was sentenced to 12 months home detention in the Manukau District Court.

NEW KEY TASK REVEALED
Chinese warships may have been circling Australia for geopolitical warning reasons. Or they may have had other objectives as well. Today the official work report from the Chinese National Congress was released, and it includes a mention (page 17) of it now being a "key task for 2025" to develop "deep-sea science and technology", which is a new item added this year. It's a reach of course, but we may be seeing more Chinese vessels on our presumably valuable continental shelf. If we don't want them there we will have to develop the ability to keep them away.

WHAT CAN HAPPEN WHEN ...
This updated chart of the price of eggs in the US is interesting. They are now up +100% in one year, up +42% in 2025 alone.

LEOPARD, SPOTS
In what is probably no surprise to interest.co.nz readers, Aussie regulator ASIC says "some" payday lender are not respecting their laws for these types of loans, branding them 'predatory'. It is always surprising when regulators think such 'lenders' should respect the law. Who do they think they are dealing with?

RETALIATION
Riled up Canadians are now proposing to toll US trucks that go through its state to service Alaska.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.69% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.48% today. The China 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 1.90%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.74% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.70% and up +2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.30% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is up +5 bps at 3.99%, so that positive curve is now at +32 bps.

EQUITIES STILL HESITATE
The NZX50 is down -0.1% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is also down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.8% in early Thursday trade on top of yesterday's rise. Hong Kong is down -0.4%, while Shanghai is unchanged at its open. Singapore has opened unchanged too. The S&P500 recovered +0.5% in Wednesday Wall Street trade, a minor move in the context of the past two weeks.

OIL FIRMER
The oil price is up +US$1 from this time yesterday and now just on US$67.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$71/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE SLIDE EXTENDS
The carbon price is down -50c today at NZ$61.75/NZU on better volumes. That is extending the slide that started early February. The next release of units at the official auction is next week on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$24 from this time yesterday, now at US$2939/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps at 57.4 USc from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged again at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 52.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 66.5 and up only +10 bps from this time yesterday mainly because of a biggish shift against the Yen.

BITCOIN BASICALLY FLAT
The bitcoin price is up +0.7% from this time yesterday, now at US$83,925. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 2.0%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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36 Comments

by Foxglove. | 13th Mar 25, 4:14pm 1741835694

Sky TV got the Lions covered. Sky TV increasing its charge for its sports channels. Sky TV? Thanks but no thanks. Not worth the lax service nor the ever increasing percentage of adverts.

by Nifty | 13th Mar 25, 4:22pm 1741836130

What's the alternative?

by Yvil | 13th Mar 25, 4:24pm 1741836263

There are several online sports streaming platforms, that are good and cheaper.

by Nifty | 13th Mar 25, 5:11pm 1741839102

Like what, that's legal & you don't have to get vpns etc?

by IT GUY | 13th Mar 25, 6:34pm 1741844099

None, but there is this guy in Dubai who ... for a fee, will sell you an HDMI plugin that has an I-phone app, that is pretty cool, its about $399 Nzd a year for everything and more..... its legality is doubtful and not fully explored. it runs about 10-15 seconds behind real time though so not great if you are a sports better.

includes most pay to view boxing etc, its pretty much 12 months all you can eat. has built in VPN, you just plug into tv, add wifi and use I-phone to choose channel.

Anyway that's what a friend told me. its not perfect a few buffers per super rugby game.

by rolande | 13th Mar 25, 10:18pm 1741857534

There's a few kebab shops in Auckland that have that sort of device. Literally hundreds of sports channels. I'm sure I was watching some Afghani Olympic Wrestling with my felafel kebab. Also flicked through about a dozen cricket channels

by DMC45 | 14th Mar 25, 2:07am 1741871246

It is a guy in Turkey, so my friends told me....

by Kate | 13th Mar 25, 7:10pm 1741846237

Disney+ just added ESPN.

by Nifty | 13th Mar 25, 8:42pm 1741851731

Hmm right, I'm guessing ESPN won't have any NZ sport though - All Blacks, Warriors, Blackcaps, A League...?

by profile | 13th Mar 25, 4:28pm 1741836530

$9 trillion squandered. A pity something useful like a couple of thousand nuclear reactors had been built instead. NZ wind at 3pm 10% of installed capacity - replaced by good old gas and jungle coal.

"Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year."

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/eur/en/insights/latest-and-featured/eo…

https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/live-system-and-market-dat…

by IT GUY | 13th Mar 25, 6:05pm 1741842354

It must piss off the rich greenies and lefties who purchased the Tesla cars, that now Elon his pissed them off, people from the further left and radical left (imagine that) are setting them alight and spray painting them...

I find it highly amusing, but also illegal. We could just bend a knee as they do it though or forgive them due to hard family upbringing.

you cannot make this shit up

Worked at McDonalds, now owns a Tesla..

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buy-tesla-searches-spike-after-trump-…

by Foxglove. | 13th Mar 25, 6:18pm 1741843092

Tariffs the proverbial rat amongst the chickens. Walmart inviting animosity by expecting their purchase prices to be reduced to compensate. Wonder then how Tesla handles this in so much how many components are imported out of necessity and how many vehicles are imported that are fully made up. There is yet a lot of fuss and feathers to fly off the wheel.

by IT GUY | 13th Mar 25, 6:36pm 1741844171

28-44% (divergence due to not really known but analysts estimates) of S&P500 earnings are from offshore, hence the puking

by profile | 13th Mar 25, 4:34pm 1741836849

Hopefully this can be replicated at scale to save the green virtue signallers some land filling.

"...Most current recycling methods use powerful acids or ammonia to extract these metals, but these processes can harm the environment.

The new method, developed by scientists from Central South University in Changsha, Guizhou Normal University, and the National Engineering Research Center of Advanced Energy Storage Materials, works at a neutral pH level, reducing pollution and safety risks.

...In just 15 minutes, it can extract 99.99% of the lithium, 96.8% of the nickel, 92.35% of the cobalt, and 90.59% of the manganese from used batteries.

The real kicker? The leftover glycine solution can be used as a fertilizer, further reducing waste."

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/amino-acids-for-battery-lithi…

by powerdownkiwi | 13th Mar 25, 4:48pm 1741837711

How much energy does this process take?

Source?

Longevity thereof?

by J.C. | 13th Mar 25, 4:36pm 1741837001

Big numbers coming out of Japan’s annual Shunto wage negotiations. Unions had asked for an average 6% increase yoy. Of course, these negotiations cover only a fraction of the workforce, those employed by the larger, more international companies.

SME’s have struggled to raise wages, leading to a widening pay gap, and perhaps hastening the closure of many of these uncompetitive small businesses. Nonetheless, this should be positive for domestic consumption and bolsters the case for Japan having exited deflation on a more than temporary basis.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Work/Japanese-companies-boost-wages-a…

by Officebound | 13th Mar 25, 6:42pm 1741844579

Unions always ask for the moon....

by J.C. | 13th Mar 25, 4:39pm 1741837157

Walmart is trying to force Chinese suppliers to reduce the price of goods, for which the profit margins are already very slim.

Beijing has stepped in to stop Walmart from bullying Chinese manufacturers.

That was the backdrop for Tuesday’s meeting in Beijing, where Chinese officials asked Walmart representatives to explain what the company was doing, according to people familiar with the meeting. The officials said making Chinese suppliers pay the costs of tariffs would be irresponsible and unfair.

There was also a veiled threat: The Chinese side told Walmart that asking suppliers to lower prices might violate contracts and disrupt market order, and the officials referred to potential legal consequences, the people said.

“If Walmart insists” on making Chinese suppliers absorb the blow, “then what awaits Walmart is not just talk,” state broadcaster China Central Television said on social media Wednesday.

https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/china-summons-walmart-for-talks-as-…

by keithwoodford | 13th Mar 25, 4:53pm 1741838021

To the best of my knowledge we have no rights to prevent anyone puttering around above the NZ continental shelf as long as they stay outside territorial waters.

KeithW

by IT GUY | 13th Mar 25, 5:46pm 1741841213

12 mile limit if you are just sight seeing?

by AN Other | 13th Mar 25, 5:35pm 1741840556

"...for sustained fax fraud. "

Doing it old school I see. I also see that is what IRD recalled it in the article on their website. Hopefully there are no grounds for appeal for this former IRD staffer, on this minor typo - unless Georges used a fax for his wealth padding action.

by IT GUY | 13th Mar 25, 6:03pm 1741842213

by IT GUY | 13th Mar 25, 5:48pm 1741841336

Before email we ran multimillion dollar projects by fax...

and at the end of the projects you would shred the faxes, just like US Aid is doing now.

by Antz | 13th Mar 25, 5:49pm 1741841347

Can I fax the IRD my tax payment (;-)??

by J.C. | 13th Mar 25, 6:25pm 1741843525

No real surprises here. Like Aotearoa, high cost, sub-standard output.

The national broadband network has been a financial disaster for Australia, delivering among the highest-costing and lowest-speed internet in the world. It, like many of the so-called big reforms of the past 20 years, will be an economic and productivity albatross around the necks of Australians for generations to come.

Earlier this year, Communications Minister Michelle Rowland announced that the Albanese government would inject a further $3 billion of taxpayer funds into the NBN to “fund the upgrade of Australia’s remaining national fibre-to-the node (FTTN) network”. This $3 billion would supplement $800 million of NBN Co funds to “deliver access to higher internet speeds for around 622,000 additional premises” by 2030.

https://www.afr.com/technology/highest-costs-lowest-speeds-make-nbn-a-f…

by powerdownkiwi | 13th Mar 25, 6:37pm 1741844256

will be an economic and productivity albatross around the necks of Australians for generations to come.

Ah, no.

Nothing lasts for generations, the internet included. So we are looking at an opinion/bias doing the writing here. Just saying. Needs to be viewed through a lens.

And no generation hence, is going to be worried about broadband speed. They will know that productivity was really energy-efficiencies, and in that regared, they'll be well ahead of us.

by Zachary Smith | 13th Mar 25, 6:51pm 1741845061

They wont be worried about broadband speed because they will all have super-fast Internet access. I think it's time to get help PDK.

Looking further ahead, by 2050, the internet is expected to transform into a fully immersive experience, powered by augmented reality, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence. This will enable seamless and fast internet access for most people around the world.

by IT GUY | 13th Mar 25, 7:07pm 1741846027

They can just get starlink

by J.C. | 13th Mar 25, 7:37pm 1741847837

They can just get starlink

Kinda what I was thinking. Just consider NBN a 'sunk cost.'

by Foxglove. | 13th Mar 25, 7:07pm 1741846049

Internet is marvellous.,The information and thus learning ability is stupendous. What worries me most though is how many of my contemporaries, that is the elderly bracket, now require it to do their thinking for them which in turn questions the same impact on the younger generations who have been availed of it right from their start.

by gnx | 13th Mar 25, 7:24pm 1741847063

I can remember going to a friends house to borrow the Encyclopaedias for school projects....often.

How the world has changed.

by Zachary Smith | 13th Mar 25, 8:08pm 1741849699

The Internet also offers huge savings in energy costs. No more printing for example. No more travelling to the bank, insurance office or travel agency. Working from home. Remote meetings. There are innumerable cost savings.

Things will just get more amazing as time marches on. With the power of advanced computing technology we will become like gods. And it is certain that human populations will dramatically reduce in numbers reducing energy consumption. I see a very spectacular future ahead.

by powerdownkiwi | 13th Mar 25, 8:46pm 1741851969

Bollocks it does.

The internet uses a lot of energy - and the electricity is largely traceable to fossil feedstock.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-prod-source-stacked

So a temporary arrangement. High opinions of self - including presumably other selves, as I doubt you're a tecchy - cannot transcend the Laws of Physics. Including entropy - how old are you? You don't look like your 5-year-old self in the mirror, do you? That's entropy.

Gods schmods - if we'd been that smart we wouldn't have irrupted, gotten overshot, or trashed our habitat. But we did all three, concurrently. I call that really. really stupid. Doesn't bode well - but the Romans didn't see it coming either. And some still can't see what hit them - even with hindsight.

by Zachary Smith | 14th Mar 25, 7:13am 1741889618

I am a techie. Can't believe you spout this utter nonsense. You have a profoundly childish notion of entropy. I mixed my genes with that of another and produced new life. Evolutionary principles develop stronger, more complex lifeforms that regenerate. Human technology follows the same principles. You need to get out of your weirdo echo chamber and just open your eyes.

by IT GUY | 13th Mar 25, 10:32pm 1741858337

The country’s economy is in a rut, which helps explain why 15 per cent of its population is in Australia.

The Economist

Mar 13, 2025 – 4.00pm

"Escape the winter chill” and “expand your horizons in sunny South-East Queensland!” reads one newspaper advertisement, luring New Zealand’s healthcare workers towards a new life in Australia.

“Warmer days and higher pays”, enthused another, last year, from the Queensland police service. Kiwis who chose “policing in paradise” could look forward to 300 days of annual sunshine and a $20,000 relocation bonus, it declared.

by rolande | 14th Mar 25, 7:21am 1741890077

The Economist has always had a weird beef against NZ. It's probably just snobbery. But NZ doesn't appear on any standard graph or table. Any article mentioning NZ is probably in the negative and without context