Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No major changes to report today. But SBS Bank said it would cut its reverse mortgage interest rate by -50 bps to 8.89% from April 15, 2025. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
PRESSURE ON FOOD PRICES LOW
Food prices fell -0.5% in February from January, reversing January's sharp rise, while annual grocery costs continue to climb. Year on year food prices are up +2.4%. Meanwhile Infometrics reported that Foodstuffs paid its suppliers +1.8% more in February than a year ago.
A MODEST PICKUP
Westpac's monitoring of the card records shows retail spending is starting to pick up again, but the recovery remains gradual for now. Mortgage costs remain an important drag on spending for many households, they say. They also note spending in those regions with a strong rural backbone is outpacing spending in metro centres.
'LIFT-OFF'
The BNZ/BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose strongly in February to its best expansion since August 2022. New order growth essentially drove the gains but this is the one area that was still weaker than the long-term average. The rural sector is rising strongly, and now if the factory sector is too, we just need the tourism and household sectors to make their comebacks.
FAT BANK BALANCE
The release today of the RBNZ's balance sheet as at the end of February 2025 shows that the Crown had a settlement account balance exceeding $40 bln (for which it earns the OCR interest rate, or +$125 mln per month). That is its highest balance since April 2021. The RBNZ total assets are unchanged however.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 was basically flat at 3pm today, resulting in a -1.5% decline over the past five days. Year-on-year, the index remains up +3.5%. Ryman, a2 Milk, Vulcan Steel, and Vista Group were today's top gainers, with Kathmandu, Vector, Hallenstein, and Heartland all declining.
COUPE OUTED, CONVICTED, JAILED
Real estate businessman and serial offender Aaron Coupe has been sentenced to 4 years and 5 months of imprisonment by the Auckland District Court in January for taking part in the management of companies in breach of the law. An appeal for permanent name suppression was abandoned, bringing protracted court proceedings to a close for a long list of aggrieved and vulnerable investors, and business partners in the United States, Auckland and Cardona Valley in the south.
EVEN MORE STUDIES
The Government says it is getting ready to make a decision on the next Auckland harbour crossing. So it is commissioning more studies including geotechnical, environmental, and utilities investigations to gain a comprehensive understanding of ground and seabed conditions and, in time, to determine whether a bridge or a tunnel would be the more suitable crossing option. It says it is also looking at "innovative" funding arrangements for what could be the country's largest infrastructure project ever.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today, maybe marginally higher, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.69% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.45% today. The China 10 year bond rate is yup +1 bp at 1.91%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.71% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.64% and down -6 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -3 bps at 3.96%, so that positive curve is unchanged at +32 bps.
EQUITIES HOLD, EXCEPT ON WALL STREET
The NZX50 is up +0.1% in late Friday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is also up +0.3% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is up +1.0%, while Shanghai is up +0.8% at its open. Singapore has opened down -0.1%. The S&P500 fell -1.4% in Thursday Wall Street trade, the largest mover on global markets.
OIL SOFTER
The oil price is down -50 USc from this time yesterday and now just on US$67/bbl in the US, and just over US$70/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE SLIDES FURTHER
The carbon price is down -$1.25 today at NZ$60/NZU on better volumes. That is extending the slide that started early February. The next release of units at the official auction is next week on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD JUMPS
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$50 from this time yesterday, now at US$2988/oz and a new record high. But so far it hasn't ticked over US$3000 at any point yet.
NZD SLIPS BACK
The Kiwi dollar is back down -30 bps at 57.1 USc from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 66.3 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is down -2.7% from this time yesterday, now at US$81,701. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.6%.
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