A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; up signs for housing market, but unsold stock stays high, gender retirement gap unmoved, financial crime assessed, services back shrinking, swaps & NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No major changes to report today. But this analysis on rate strategy may be helpful. And Resimac trimmed its floating rates on its runout portfolio. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Both Liberty Financial, and Heretaunga Building Society cut some rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HOUSING MARKET SEES SOME RECOVERY
The REINZ reports that both the median house prices and sales volumes are on the rise. The national median house price rose +2.9% in February from January, reaching $772,000. But there is no evidence in this February data that stock levels are falling.

LOANS DUE
The clock is ticking on Covid-era government-backed small business loans. The IRD reminds businesses with small business cashflow loans from 2020 that the repayment deadline is near.

PROGRESS STALLS
The Retirement Commission today released a review of the gender retirement savings gap, which they say is 25% and there has been no progress on closing this discrepancy. It was a very comprehensive review of 3.2 mln KiwiSaver members (97% of all members). It had previously been estimated (by the WEF) that the gap would not be closed until 2158, in 133 years. But this updated review shows even that won't be achieved. More here.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 was basically flat at 3pm today, down -0.2%, resulting in a -2.2% decline over the past five days. Year-on-year, the index remains up +4.4%. a2 Milk, Infratil & Oceania lead the few gainers, Spark, Kathmandu & Meridian lead the many decliners, Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged.

NAB CFO QUITS FOR RIVAL, ALSO LEAVES BNZ BOARD
BNZ says director Nathan Goonan has resigned, jumping ship to become the Westpac Group CFO. Goonan also resigned Monday from his role as Chief Financial Officer of BNZ's parent National Australia Bank. He has been on BNZ's board since November 2023, and was a member of the board risk and compliance committee.

WHERE THE RISKS ARE, & THEY ARE GROWING
The Police today released their 2024 National Risk Assessment report from their Financial Intelligence Unit. It identifies that fraud-related crime, drug crime and transnational money laundering are the highest threat, with fraud accelerating and seeing both ‘defrauding’ and the subsequent ‘laundering’ occurring within the financial system.

ANZ PART OF AUSTRALIA'S FOREIGN POLICY
In a clear foreign policy move to prevent them falling to mainland Chinese bank buyers, the Australian Government is giving ANZ direct support to its Pacific Islands division to prevent them divesting these operations. It includes a AU$2 bln limited guarantee over 10 years. The have operations in nine island countries, employing 1200 staff and are the only remaining AA- rated bank operating in this market.

NAME CHANGE
First Union said today that it wants to me know as Workers First Union.

BACK TO NORMAL, ONE THAT ISN'T POSITIVE
After an unusual January expansion (but very minor), the BNZ/BusinessNZ service sector PSI moved back into contraction in February, its normal place over the past year. All five sub-indices are in contraction and well below their respective long-term averages. The services new order component remains the furthest below its historical average

NEVER-ENDING 'MORE STIMULUS'
China's State Council has launched 'a special action plan' to boost domestic consumption, including increasing residents' income and establishing a childcare subsidy scheme. The plan came a week after the Premier's work report to the National People's Congress, which focused on boosting household spending to cushion the impact of weak external demand. Asian equity markets liked what they saw.

LOLLY SCRAMBLE
A week from tomorrow (on Tuesday, March 25, 2025) the Australian Federal government will release its Budget 2025/26. That effectively kicks off their federal election campaign. Voters there are about to be deluged in 'promises' from all sides.

SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today today even at the short end as global rate rise, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.69% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.46% today. The China 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 1.93%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps at 4.73% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.68% and up +4 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31% and down -1 bp from this morning. Their 2yr is unchanged at 4.02%, so that positive curve is down -1 bp at +29 bps.

EQUITIES FIRMER, EXCEPT THE NZX50
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late Monday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is also up +1.2% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.7%, while Shanghai is up +0.2% at its open. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open tomorrow up +0.5%..

OIL FIRMS
The oil price is up almost +US$1 from this morning and now just under US$68/bbl in the US, and just under US$71.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE SLIPS AGAIN
The carbon price is down another -50c today at NZ$59.50/NZU on better volumes. That is extending the slide that started early February. The next release of units at the official auction is this week on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD STAYS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$5 from this morning, now at US$2990/oz but still not breaching US$3000 again

NZD SLIGHTLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps at 57.6 USc from this morning. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 52.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 66.9 and up +0 bps from this morning.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is down -0.5% from this morning's open, now at US$83,249. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».