What happened Tuesday - gold tops US$3000

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; Heartland disengages from home loan offers, Moody's affirms big bank ratings, farmer sentiment nears all-time highs, swaps firm, NZD jumps, & more

18th Mar 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank removed all its fixed rate offers today except its one year rate, which it raised by +64. It is no longer accepting new home loan clients. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TRACKING SIDEWAYS
Despite falling interest rates the housing market turned in a very average performance in February as revealed by a look at the key indicators out of the REINZ sales activity data.

AFFIRMED
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the A1 long-term issuer ratings of ANZ, BNZ, and Westpac, and the one notch higher Aa3 long-term issuer rating of ASB, "reflecting the banks' strong asset quality, robust capitalisation and profitability". All were maintained as stable'. Kiwibank was also affirmed at A1, stable.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 has fallen -0.6% so far today and falling, extending its -2.7% decline over the past five days. Over the last six months, the index has dropped -4%, although it remains up +3% year-on-year. Heartland, Manawa Energy, Gentrack, and Genesis lead the day's gainers with Kathmandu, NZX, Serko, and Summerset the main decliners,

EIGHT YEAR HIGH
Federated Farmers may give the impression that its sector is grumpy and deserving of more taxpayer support warranting intervention to allow it to avoid environmental regulation, and to borrow more, but in fact the surveys of farmer confidence (including the FedFarmer's own one) are all very positive. High and rising prices, strong demand, and favourable growing conditions are all in the rural sector's favour. Today the Rabobank survey of farmer sentiment reported that following a big jump in the last quarter of 2024, farmer confidence in the broader agri economy has risen again and the net confidence reading now sits at +44% (from +34%). This is the second-highest net reading recorded across the past decade, with only the quarter two reading in 2017 (+52%) higher.

DEVELOPED HERE BUT WE ARE NOW JUST A SUPPORT PLAYER
The listed T&G Global, controlled by Germany's BayWa, is touting a very strong start to its apple season, especially for Jazz apples. They supply 50 markets and are shipping a premium crop on that and other varieties bolstered by 'ideal' growing weather conditions. Japan and the UK are where they are winning big demand increases. But the New Zealand crops are just a transition from the same varieties that are now produced in a number of other countries too.

BLOWN OFF COURSE
An independent panel led by Judge Laurie Newhook has declined resource consent sought by Contact Energy for a wind farm in Oware and Gore, Southland.

AML BREACHES DRAW WARNING
The Department of Internal Affairs has issued a formal warning to NZForex Limited (trading here as OFX) for failing to meet its obligations under the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act 2009. NZForex voluntarily disclosed to DIA that it had identified a system issue with its prescribed transaction reporting processes. This resulted in NZForex failing to report 3,182 transactions (that were not denominated in New Zealand Dollars) to the New Zealand Police Financial Intelligence Unit between 1 November 2017 to 28 February 2024. NZForex has since taken steps to remediate the system issue and has reported all outstanding transactions. NZForex is also undertaking an independent audit voluntarily.

PRESSURE UPGRADED
The FMA has filed criminal charges against former financial adviser David McEwen, for failing to comply with an FMA stop order, due to concerns he is still contacting potential investors. They allege McEwen failed to comply with the stop order by continuing to make offers and accept contributions for financial products.

SMARTPAY IN DEMAND
Smartpay Holdings Ltd has appointed Morgan Stanley and Bell Gully as financial and legal advisers after receiving two separate conditional, non-binding and indicative takeover proposals. One's from Tyro Payments Ltd, and the other from what it describes as "an international strategic".

COMMODITIES MOVING
Apart from the items noted below, today there are some big movements in some commodity prices. European gas prices are down sharply as is Russian oil. US egg prices are falling back sharply. Chinese rebar steel prices are lower again. Tin seems to have ended its recent sharp run-up - or maybe its just a hesitation. The cobalt price has suddenly surged.

EXTRA-TERRITORIAL REACH
In Melbourne, Chinese/Hong Kong authorities have sent 'wanted' letters for information and a bounty for a democracy activist who fled after the Umbrella protests. The Guardian is reporting that a bounty of $203,000 is offered. Australian government officials are alarmed by the move. It is similar to a Chinese campaign being waged in the UK. Do you know of similar moves in New Zealand?

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today today although little-changed at the short end as global rate rise, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -3 bps at 3.66% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.44% today. The China 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 1.96%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.75% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.70% and up +2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.30% and down -1 bp from yesterday. Their 2yr is up +2 bps at 4.04%, so that positive curve is down -4 bps at +25 bps.

EQUITIES FIRMER, EXCEPT THE NZX50, AGAIN
The NZX50 is down -0.5% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.6% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is also up +1.6%, while Shanghai is up only +0.1% at its open. Singapore has opened up +0.9%. The S&P500 ended its Monday session up +0.6% on Wall Street trade.

OIL SETTLES
The oil price is down less than -50 USc from this time yesterday and now just over US$67.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$71/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOWER
The carbon price is staying down today at NZ$59.50/NZU on quite good volumes. That is extending the slide that started early February. The next release of units at the official auction is this week on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD PUSHES UP THROUGH US$3K
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$15 from this time yesterday, now at US$3005/oz and finally breaching the psychological US$3000 threshold.

NZD MUCH FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +70 bps at 58.3 USc from this time yesterday and a new three month high. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +50 bps at 53.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 67.4 and up +50 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday, now at US$83,231 vs yesterday's US$83,249. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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30 Comments

by Yvil | 18th Mar 25, 4:16pm 1742267792

by Toye | 3rd Feb 25, 4:07pm

Dollar into the 40s by end of Feb particularly if OCR drops 50bps.

Beware who you listen to.

by J.C. | 18th Mar 25, 4:30pm 1742268612

In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$15 from this time yesterday, now at US$3005/oz and finally breaching the psychological US$3000 threshold.

Looking at the ol' gold miners using GDX as the proxy, things are looking spunky:

Year to date: Up a whopping 29%

Past 12 months: +49%

And 101% since the dark days of Covid onset.

You wouldn't have heard this at your property seminar or through Granny Herald.

by Zachary Smith | 18th Mar 25, 4:34pm 1742268890

Well, I guess a property seminar would be about property...

by kraken | 18th Mar 25, 4:42pm 1742269357

Time to rotate out of the property ponzi into the gold ponzi. $3,000 is the floor.

by KH | 18th Mar 25, 5:40pm 1742272858

I am quite positive about gold. But if you are not I think "bubble" is a better word than "ponzi"

by kraken | 18th Mar 25, 5:49pm 1742273387

I'm positive too. It’s not a ponzi or a bubble, it’s a tier one asset that central banks are buying. And it’s climb suggests inflation remains a problem, with other commodities usually following.

Copper shouldn't climb during recession

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Mar 25, 8:12pm 1742281968

It can - and will - in the ultimate recession.

Ultimate scarcity - a wave breaking over us all, whether we want to know or not

by kraken | 18th Mar 25, 9:07pm 1742285230

I think we agree, industrial commodities shouldn’t rise in a normal recession, but I think we’re in stagflation, and true inflation is higher than the official numbers.

by interesting1234 | 19th Mar 25, 7:57am 1742324250

Copper should climb given the increasing demand for it for electronic devices, cars etc and AI being pushed.

by Yvil | 18th Mar 25, 4:43pm 1742269394

Touché 😅

by kraken | 18th Mar 25, 5:25pm 1742271952

Gold tops US$3000

Someone needs to hike rates to keep a lid on gold prices and make government bonds more attractive, as gold is in direct competition as a tier one asset. Housing, however, isn’t a tier one asset and doesn’t need the same protection as government bonds.

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Mar 25, 5:46pm 1742273181

Gold?

I'm not having a bar of it

by Foxglove. | 18th Mar 25, 6:29pm 1742275777

Didn’t pan out?

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 25, 6:38pm 1742276289

Lost its shine

by kiwikidsnz | 18th Mar 25, 7:04pm 1742277871

Not all that glitters

by Foxglove. | 18th Mar 25, 7:21pm 1742278872

No, courtesy the early Beatles - you really ingot a hold on me.

by J.C. | 18th Mar 25, 4:34pm 1742268897

Oh my. The Cantillon Effect knows no boundaries in Aussie.

"8% of credit from Australian banks goes to owner-occupier households earnings less than $120k, who account for about 60% of society"

"9% of credit goes to housing investors earning more than $500k, who account for just 1% of society"

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/you-ll-never-know-your-grandkids-bankin…

by J.C. | 18th Mar 25, 4:43pm 1742269428

Mark Carney places all of his financial assets, other than personal real estate, into a blind trust, according to a spokesperson. Things getting interesting.

The Conflict of Interest Act, a 2006 law that outlines the ethics rules for federal public-office holders, gives individuals subject to the act up to 60 days after taking office to make a confidential report to the ethics commissioner.

The confidential report must include a description of their direct and contingent liabilities, a breakdown of all sources of income over the past 12 months, their charitable work over the past two years and “any other information” the commissioner considers necessary.

In addition, there is a 120-day deadline to make a public declaration of assets and outside activities, subject to some exemptions, and sign off on a summary statement to be posted on the commissioner’s website.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-mark-carney-divests-as…

by mfd | 18th Mar 25, 4:54pm 1742270087

Should be standard practice for anyone serving in a position that could present a conflict of interest with their own investments.

Should we mention Luxon's (shrinking) property portfolio?

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 25, 5:26pm 1742271971

John Key had an amazing BT that invested in all the companies benefiting from .....

by interesting1234 | 19th Mar 25, 8:01am 1742324493

The former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England

There you have it, he knows the game and is trying to game it. It seems the elite are becoming more and more obvious by the day. How long until it is in the public interest for transparency to be demanded and enforced (or ideally voluntarily disclosed).

by Hans Brink | 18th Mar 25, 4:59pm 1742270351

Farming is looking a bit better. And to add to the fun we had 22mm of rain today!

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 25, 5:19pm 1742271574

Lucky you I got 4mm, that moisture map looking bad

by redcows1 | 18th Mar 25, 6:14pm 1742274891

16.5mm

Much needed.

by Wilco | 18th Mar 25, 8:37pm 1742283454

I am a rather rotund gentleman and even with that surface area as a target today's dribble only caught the edges.

by Kate | 18th Mar 25, 9:33pm 1742286808

I find the mood of the nation improves when farming is winning - not unlike when the ABs are winning.

It's great news and (fingers crossed) I think if Trump implements those 25% across the board types tariffs, against the rest-of-the-world, it can only spell continued good news for our export sectors.

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 25, 6:40pm 1742276411

https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/03/18/new-deals-to-lure-auckland-renters-t…

Househunters are being offered $500 grocery vouchers or a free week's rent by Auckland landlords keen to lure them - but are being told to hold off for more.

TradeMe statistics showed the number of new rental listings in the city in February was up 34% on the same time last year - from 8049 to 10,805.

Aspire Property Management managing director Mike Atkinson said the market was like musical chairs.

"At the moment there are a lot more chairs than there are people playing the game so it's a lot easier to get a seat," he said.

Aspire had about 1000 properties on its books, most of them in Auckland.

Atknson had noticed more little sweeteners enter the mix.

"Food vouchers, like Countdown vouchers for $500, we have a couple of properties at the moment offering one week's free rent. That's particularly common amongst apartments," he said.

RNZ also found properties on Trade Me advertising two weeks free rent, and several houses that had dropped their weekly rent by up to $60 a week.

Atkinson said would-be tenants would probably be better off in the long term by negotiating a lower weekly rent.

"If you find a property that you think is a nice property, that you'd like to live but its $20 a week more than you think you can afford to pay, then definitely put an offer in to the agent or landlord," he said.

One of the biggest things landlords could do to help get tenants was to allow pets, he said.

Atkinson said "new listings" figures did not tell the full story because many homes were are sitting empty for longer than they were a year ago, further increasing the pool, he said.

Figures Aspire used showed and an almost 60% increase in available rentals in South Auckland.

Those working in property said there was a mix of reasons - including Aucklanders moving overseas, moving back in with their parents, or putting their own homes up for rent when they could not sell them.

RNZ visited a Mount Roskill viewing to ask house hunters what they were seeing.

Prashitesh and Palvi were searching for a family home and had noticed some of the incentives but they were not enough to lure them.

"Either its not the area we want, or its not the type of house we want," Palvi said.

Flat hunter Parush, who was looking with two flatmates, noticed there was a lot more choice than when he last looked two years ago.

"We've already looked at 20-25 houses so it good, there are lots of options," he said.

Latest figures from realestate.co.nz showed the growing renters market might be having an impact on weekly rents.

The average rental Auckland in February fell 4% on the previous year to $689 a week.

But Zac Thomas, the president of advocacy group Renters United, said talk of a renters market was not all it seemed to be.

There was still a power imbalance that meant very few renters were negotiating cheaper prices, he said.

"If you are a renter that knows about these statistics then, great, there are the odd instances, but its not something we are seeing across the board," he said.

His advice to renters who did get a good price was to lock it in their contract for as long as possible.

by Kate | 18th Mar 25, 9:38pm 1742287083

Long may these green shoots keep sprouting :-).

Nice link, thanks!

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 25, 10:02pm 1742288579

Very soon, selling a house is going to be, like musical chairs....

by interesting1234 | 19th Mar 25, 8:05am 1742324724

Those working in property said there was a mix of reasons - including Aucklanders moving overseas, moving back in with their parents, or putting their own homes up for rent when they could not sell them.

Oh dear, it appears that there must be many investment properties draining landlords pockets. Hopefully they stacked the cash from the bumper years from 2020 and can buffer any losses themselves, however for those with empty rentals and on interest only, it will be a hard time to sell if they want out of the kitchen.