A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; a few retail TD rate changes, good trade surplus, FedFarmers twists ComCom into pointless effort, low-spending tourists, India vs China, swaps stable, NZD dips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Robobank and Unity Money both trimmed term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TRADE SURPLUS RISES
In February 2025, compared with the same month in 2024, goods exports rose by +$954 mln or +16% to $6.7 bln, goods imports rose by +$125 mln or +2.1% to $6.2 bn, so our merchandise trade balance was a surplus of +$510 mln. That compares with a deficit of -$319 mln a year ago, a swing of +$829 mln. More here.

WHAT HAPPENED WITH OUR TOP TRADING PARTNERS IN FEBRUARY
Our trade with China was in surplus in February by +$489 mln compered to +$288 mln a year ago. With the US, the February surplus more than halved from a year ago to +$167 mln. With Australia, we had a +$196 mln surplus in February compared to break-even a year ago. With Japan we went from a -$68 mln deficit in February 2024 to break even in 2025. With South Korea, its a big improvement for us, going from a -$456 deficit in the same month last year to -$43 mln this February.

COMCOM PROBES BANKS' NET-ZERO STRATEGIES
The Commerce Commission says it has; "opened an investigation to determine whether the adoption and alleged alignment of net-zero strategies and targets by banks, including commitments made under the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, could breach section 30 of the Commerce Act." This follows a complaint from Federated Farmers.

FRUGAL VISITORS
The RBNZ released its February credit card data today, but there wasn't much of interest in it - at least, related to credit card activity. But this caught our eye: "Billings in New Zealand on overseas issued cards decreased -9.3% from last month to $765 million in February-25. Annually, billings on overseas issued cards were down -1.2%." That seems to imply that while tourism is making some comeback, even if it isn't back to pre-pandemic levels, these visitors aren't spending like we need them to. We are attracting the frugal end of the tourism market.

A COUPLE OF [MINOR] GONGS
The RBNZ has won two categories in the Central Banking magazine awards. They were the Corporate Services Initiative Award for the successful renewal of their IT system, and the Green Award for their climate stress testing work. There were 27 awards in 2025. The central bank of Thailand won the Bank of the Year, and the governor of the Czech National Bank won the governor's award.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 has gained +0.9% so far today, though it remains down -0.9% over the last five days. Over the past six months, the index has declined -1.9%, but it holds a +2.1% gain year-on-year. The Warehouse, NZX, Kathmandu, and Infratil top the gainers. Vulcan Steel, a2 Milk, Mercury, and Fletchers lead the days decliners.

CHINA NOT HAPPY
New Zealand’s efforts to win a trade deal with India may have ‘damaged’ its relationship with China. The Chinese ambassador has criticised Luxon’s India trip.

20 CONCLUSIONS BUT NO SMOKING GUN
Australian supermarkets are actually not very good compared to New Zealand equivalents. But they are being blamed for food price inflation and a study by their competition regulator ACCC concludes they are "among the most profitable in the world". Still, after a 12-month inquiry, the regulator has not been able to support claims that Coles and Woolworths are to blame for the inflationary cost-of-living squeeze. And they don't recommend breaking up the two dominant players, Coles and Woolworths.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today at the short end, but up at the long end, so keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 3.65% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.44% today. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.91%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.68% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.61% and down another -5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24% and up +1 bp from yesterday. Their 2yr is unchanged at 3.97%, so that positive curve is now at +28 bps.

EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is up +1.1% in afternoon trade on the eased RBA risks. Tokyo is down -0.2% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.0%, while Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. The S&P500 ended its Wednesday session up -1.1% in Wall Street trade making back the prior day's fall.

OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$2 from this time yesterday and now just under US$68.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$72.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price is marginally firmer today at NZ$60/NZU and up by +50c. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES BACK SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$11 from this time yesterday, now at US$3037/oz.

NZD EASES FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps at 57.6 USc from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 53.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 66.9 and down -20 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is down -1.1% from this time yesterday, now at US$84,757. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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