What happened Monday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; quiet on the retail rate front; Synlait rises, DuVal mess exposed, Aussie PMIs rise, eyes on Aussie election budget, swaps stable, NZD holds, & more

24th Mar 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SYNLAIT IMPROVES
In its half year update, dairy processor Synlait has reported significantly improved performance. This includes revenue up +16% to $917 mln, after-tax profit doubling to $4.8 mln, and net debt down -29% to $392 mln. They have a base payout price of $10/kgMS and with various supplier premiums, they estimate the total forecast average milk payout to suppliers will be $10.48 per kg/MS.

DU VAL DOESN'T
Here is a link to the Statutory Manager's latest report on this sorry saga. Liabilities are growing the more the Statutory Manager looks at this sorry situation. And there is clearly insufficient funds available to pay them, so the taxpayer (MBIE) is going to have to fund part/most of this cost (so far $1.0 mln).

SETTLED
Economists don't see the upside surprise to the latest quarterly GDP figures as derailing likely Official Cash Rate cuts in each of the next two RBNZ reviews - but beyond that there's question marks over what comes next.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is unchanged so far today, although it remains down -0.4% over the last five days. Over the past six months, the index has declined -1.6%, and now only has a +0.4% gain year-on-year. The Warehouse, SkyTV, Hallensteins, and Stride Property lead the gainers as Air New Zealand, Oceania, Tourism Holdings, and Manawa Energy top the losers. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.6% so far today.

MOVING UP
The latest internationally-benchmarked factory PMI for Australia for March is recording a strong gain and an expansion that is its strongest since late 2022. Their 'flash' services PMI also rose but it is recording a more modest expansion.

SIX WEEKS TO GO?
We are standing by for a May election in Australia. Probably May 3, or May 10, both Thursdays. We won't know what they actually decide until after their 2025/26 Federal Budget is released tomorrow. Because it is an election Budget, its forecasts will be looked at dubiously. Current polling has the opposition parties ahead, but falling rather sharply in support. Here is a recent outlier poll. It's basically too close to call.

SPREADING TRAVEL ADVISORIES
Travelers contemplating going to the US either for holiday, work, or conferences are increasingly at risk of arrest at an airport on arrival. You have to give over your phone for inspection, and anything found that is critical of Trump or his clampdown on (say) academic freedoms for example can put you in severe jeopardy. Foreign nationals from France, Canada, and the UK have also been detained in recent weeks. The individuals in all these cases appear to have attempted to enter the United States legally, raising questions as to why they ended up in detention centers. Some were detained for weeks and were reportedly subjected to aggressive interrogations. The following countries have updated travel advisories for going to the US: Canada, Germany, France, the UK, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark.

NOT GUILTY
In South Korea, their presidential impeachment process is going down to the wire. Today, a South Korean court ruled to restore Prime Minister Han Duck-soo to office, a move that comes as the nation awaits a ruling in the impeachment trial of President Yoon Suk Yeol. The Constitutional Court announced in a press release that presiding judges deemed the evidence insufficient to uphold Han's impeachment, with seven justices voting to reject impeachment and one to uphold it.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably higher in a steepening trend although the sort rates may not have moved much. So keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.64% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.45% today. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.91%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 4.68% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.60% and down another -1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.27% and up +2 bp from this morning. Their 2yr is up +3 bps at 3.98%, so that positive curve is now at +29 bps.

EQUITIES WAVER
The NZX50 is down -0.1% in late Monday trade. The ASX200 is also down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.1% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.4%, while Shanghai is down -0.1% at its open. Singapore has opened unchanged. The S&P500 futures have suddenly turned negative as Asian markets open, and if they held at current levels they suggest Wall Street will open with the S&P500 down -1.0%.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price is little-changed from this time this morning's open and now just under US$68/bbl in the US, and just under US$72/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FALLS
The carbon price is down today at NZ$59/NZU and up by -$1. There are many sellers and volumes are relatively high. We make that its lowest level since August 2024. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2 from this morning, now at US$3021/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning's open at 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are now at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 53 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 67 and up +10 bps from this morning.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is up +0.4% from this morning, now at US$85,576US$84,757. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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15 Comments

by Officebound | 24th Mar 25, 4:09pm 1742785783

Interesting comment that Du Val liquidator fees will need to be paid by MBIE.

My understanding was that they get paid before anyone, including the IRD.

by AN Other | 24th Mar 25, 4:23pm 1742786613

Are things different because they were sent in by MBIE?

Maybe Kenyon Clarke could donate a kidney to help pay the bill (/sarc (/notsarc)).

by Nifty | 24th Mar 25, 4:39pm 1742787553

Kenyon Clarke is still advertising himself & BS business leadership courses on social media... pretty unbelievable.

Are you a sheep or wolf? 😅 https://www.instagram.com/reel/DHXK024y7zt/?igsh=MWY5N2V1am00c2ZwcQ==

by Averageman | 24th Mar 25, 4:40pm 1742787650

Wow. They standard developer mass companies wide and deep. No role other than to defeat creditors, as makes an administrative mes, but alsos for anyone following.

by Yvil | 24th Mar 25, 4:23pm 1742786619

We are standing by for a May election in Australia. Probably May 3, or May 10, both Thursdays.

You had me sweating here, I have an important overseas event of Saturday 3rd of May, (flights and accommodation booked), I thought for a sec that I got my dates wrong...

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Mar 25, 4:25pm 1742786738

"The government says its new replacement for the Resource Management Act will cut administrative and compliance costs by 45 percent.

The government will look to progress its reforms, introducing two Acts to replace the RMA by the end of 2025.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the RMA was "the culture of 'no' that I spoke about earlier in the year brought to life".

RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Undersecretary Simon Court said replacing the RMA with law based on property rights would grow the economy and lift living standards."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/545835/watch-live-christopher-luxo…

by mfd | 24th Mar 25, 4:54pm 1742788452

Lets hope this allows some more housing density in areas that people want to build and buy them. Perhaps Luxon can have a chat to the local MP who spoke out against high density housing in his Auckland constituency.

"There are other parts of Auckland that make sense for us to put higher density dwellings into. This is an area that should always stay a single dwelling zone" - Chris Luxon demonstrating the 'culture of no'.

https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/08/02/fast-track-panel-hears-pms-objection-…

by Yvil | 24th Mar 25, 4:30pm 1742787017

Travelers contemplating going to the US either for holiday, work, or conferences are increasingly at risk of arrest at an airport on arrival. You have to give over your phone for inspection, and anything found that is critical of Trump or his clampdown on (say) academic freedoms for example can put you in severe jeopardy. Foreign nationals from France, Canada, and the UK have also been detained in recent weeks

Catastrophic move to totalitarian authoritarianism. I feel safer travelling to China.

by Pragmatist | 24th Mar 25, 5:32pm 1742790770

Leave your main phone at home, get a cheap 2nd hand phone and factory reset it before flying, then restore from the cloud once you've arrived. Just need to remember a password or two to get to your data.

by Foxglove. | 24th Mar 25, 6:02pm 1742792554

What about I Pads. Foxglove is now too frightened to even transit through Hong Kong because of some of the ribbing of Comrade X on here who refuses to divulge where Foxglove is on his or her red hit list.

by Yvil | 24th Mar 25, 9:02pm 1742803330

Just don't fly to the USA anymore

by J.C. | 24th Mar 25, 4:54pm 1742788498

Advertising guru Rory Sutherland is also a smart economic thinker. He does a great opinion piece of why young English people are probably better off in Manchester than London.

For this bonding to happen, therefore, it helps if your younger colleagues — who gain the most from the exchange — can afford to buy a pint, a latte or a peshwari naan. In London the answer to this question is increasingly no. And the negative gets more and more resounding as you near payday.

Yet a large city should offer two things which a smaller place cannot. One is “gains to agglomeration” (when economic activity is concentrated in one place), which should lead to higher incomes. The other is breadth of opportunity. Both of these advantages are now eroded.

Higher incomes are completely offset by housing and transport costs. The supposedly meritocratic gains to opportunity are destroyed by a property-led caste system where your overall wealth depends much more on if, when and where you (or your parents) entered the housing market than any particular talent or enterprise you yourself possess.

It was often said that London was one of the few places in the world where you could become a millionaire through working in a paid job. That’s still true — but it’s also one of the few places where you can be a millionaire while living in a one-bedroom flat, which you struggled to buy from a librarian who bought it for peanuts in 1983.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/manchester-better-for-young-london-h…

by J.C. | 24th Mar 25, 5:54pm 1742792046

Former African Union Ambassador to the United States, Arikana Chihombori-Quao on the USAID terror:

“They're using that open access, sounding humanitarian, to constantly destabilize governments”

“We need to understand the real reason why USAID is in Africa, and not just USAID, but other NGOs They are coming in claiming that they're introducing grassroots initiatives that are going to help the people, and so they use that as a way to go into the most remote parts of Africa. When you look at it on paper, it all looks really good, but they're actually wolf in sheep's clothing.”

“The American taxpayer needs to know the billions of dollars that are being given to USAID. A fraction is making it to the people”

“They're using that open access sounding humanitarian to constantly destabilize governments. I can tell you right now, the majority of African leaders, and not just African leaders, but leaders in the developing world are celebrating the exit of USAID."

"If you think about it, their sole purpose, for example, filling in the gaps in healthcare and education, where is the change? Show me one country that USAID was in and education improved. Show me what country where USAID was in and healthcare improved?”

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2025/3/16/chihombori-…

by Foxglove. | 24th Mar 25, 6:20pm 1742793605

Guess no surprises there then. Likely what packages arrive from China in similar wrapping, are little different. As someone said - the corruption that lies hidden in plain sight, is the worst enemy of any society.

by J.C. | 24th Mar 25, 6:37pm 1742794671

The Helen Clarks of this world likely to give Arikana Chihombori-Quao a disapproving look.