A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; employment confidence and job ad levels sag, eyes on milk powder prices, commercial lease listings rise, swaps steepen, NZD softish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report again today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank cut their one year rate by -10 bps to 4.30%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE SAGS AGAIN
Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Survey shows lowest levels of labour market confidence since the immediate aftermath of the first Covid lockdown in 2020.

JOB ADS SAG
In related data, the BNZ/Seek job ads series shows they declined -1.8% in February from January, acting as a reality check after their +4.0% lift in January. Job ads are down -16.8% compared to a year ago. The labour market is still deteriorating, albeit the pace of decline is slowing.

BANKING BARRIERS
The most common barriers people are facing when trying to open a bank account include complex paperwork, language barriers as well as lack of proof of address, photo identification, language and access to a bank branch. This is according to new research published by the Reserve Bank on Tuesday from a survey of 722 frontline bank staff. A third of them said they are regularly not able to open accounts for some people. The groups reported most likely to find it difficult to open a bank account include recent migrants, rural communities, the elderly, people with disabilities, and trusts, including Māori trusts. RBNZ Assistant Governor SImone Robbers said the research provided a “snapshot” of the onboarding bank experience in NZ and the shifts needed to promote “efficient and inclusive” access to bank accounts.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is up +0.6% so far today, and up +0.9% over the last five days. Over the past six months, the index has declined -1.2%, and now has a +1.1% gain year-on-year.

EYES ON MILK POWDER PRICES
There is another dairy Pulse auction event tomorrow for WMP and SMP. Futures market signals suggest that the SMP price could come in +2% above last week's full event. But the WMP price is under pressure, and these same signals suggest it could fall more than -5% from last week's full event.

EYES ON COMMERCIAL LEASE VACANCIES
We track commercial space for lease advertising (weekly), and these listings are now at their highest in a year. The change isn't dramatic, but the vacancy rates are clearly rising. Nationally these listings are up +2.5%. In Auckland they are up +3.2% region wide. But industrial Manukau has far lower availability (down -11%). Hamilton is up +4.2%. Tauranga is up +2.9%. Wellington is up +2.4%. Going the other way, Christchurch vacancies are -2.1% lower. The tightest center is Palmerston North, down -10.1%.

REGIONAL WINNERS & LOSERS
StatsNZ released some regional GDP data today, but because it is as at March 2024, it is quite out of date. All the same it does allow us to see long term trend shifts. We looked the tenn and 20 year changes. Gross GDP in Auckland rose from 35.3% of national GDP ten years ago, to 37.9% in 2024. That is actually an outsized shift up. For Wellington it is a shift from 13.3% ten years ago to 12.3% in this latest data. For Canterbury it is from 13.2% to 12.5%. On a per capita basis, Auckland shifted from 105% to 113% of the national levels, Welling shifted from 121% to 118.5%. Canterbury shifted from 104% to 95%.

EYES ON JIM CHALMERS
It's Federal Budget Day in Canberra, Australia. Those details will be released at about 9:30pm tonight, NZT. Almost certainly there will be no budget surplus in their forecasts. The Murdoch media is already trash-talking it on behalf of the opposition Liberals. But the ASX200 is rising in advance, up +0.6% so far. More here.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably higher in a continuing steepening trend although the short rates may not have moved much. So keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.63% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.49% today. The China 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 1.87%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also up +3 bps at 4.71% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.60% and up +5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.34% and up +7 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is up +5 bps at 4.03%, so that positive curve is now at +30 bps.

EQUITIES FIRMER
The NZX50 is up +0.7% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is also up, by +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.8% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.1%, while Shanghai is up +0.1% at its open. Singapore has opened up +1.0% which is a lot for them. On Wall Street, the S&P500 opened its Monday with a +1.8% gain, all on the idea that tariff threats are being scaled back.

OIL UP
The oil price is up +US$1 from this time yesterday and now just on US$69/bbl in the US, and just under US$73/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE SLIPS AGAIN
The carbon price is down -50c today at NZ$58/NZU. There are many sellers and volumes are again relatively high. We make that its lowest level since August 2024. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$8 from yesterday, now at US$3013/oz.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are now at 91 AUc and down -30 bps. Against the euro we are unchanged at 53 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 66.9 and down -10 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is up +1.9% from this time yesterday, now at US$87,183. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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