A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; Liberty drops mortgage rates, FHBs fade, eyes on broker churn, NZX50 rises above peers, Aussie inflation eases, swaps stable, NZD on hold, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Liberty Financial cut all its mortgage rates, floating and fixed, by -50 bps. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank trimmed rates shorter than 1 year by -5 to -10 bps. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FHB SHARE FADES
Latest figures from the Reserve Bank show that first home buyers continue to take a declining share of monthly mortgage advances, while the overall figures for February were down on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

WHAT'S MOTIVATING THE HIGH CHURN?
The latest RBNZ data, for February, shows that borrower penchants for changing banks is remaining high with one in four "new loans" (by value) happening because of a bank change. By volume it is one in eight, and near its series high. Interest rates may not be changing, but this market remains intensively competitive based on either a) borrower behaviour, or b) (more likely) broker churn. Long term market share data (RBNZ Dashboard) shows very minor net share changes between institutions, only noticeable over the very long term. So long as brokers deliver at least three good options to their clients, all is well with switching. But selective and opaque reasoning presented to borrowers is inherently problematic.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 gained +1.2% today, extending a +2.1% rise over the past five days but still down -1% for the month. Year-on-year, the index is now up +2.5%. F&P Healthcare, Ryman, Meridian, and Channel Infrastructure lead the gainers with Mercury, Kathmandu, Gentrack, and Contact the big decliners.

INFLATION EASES
In Australia, inflation seems to be easing slightly. Today's release of their monthly inflation indicator for February shows this index was unchanged from January, up 2.4% from a year ago, comfortably within the RBA's 1-3% range and the lowest level since November. Food prices moderated on soft rises in some key grocery items like bread (+2.3%) and dairy (-0.3%). Rents rose at their slowest rate since March 2023 at +5.5%, but other owner-occupier costs rose just +1.8%. The RBA probably won't cut at their next April 1 meeting, but one is on the cards for their May meeting, especially if the election precedes it.

SMALL RISE IN BURGLARY
Data out today in Australia shows that the proportion of households that were broken into rose from 1.8% in 2022-23 to 2.1% in 2023-24. That is one chance in 48 of a household break-in. If you know the equivalent New Zealand data, please record it in the comments below.

A RESTRAINED ELECTION BUDGET
Last evening, the Australian Government released its 2025/26 Federal Budget. In the shadow of security threats from both the US and China, they managed a ‘modest’ tax-cut bribe, and increased government spending, all to be financed by raising their borrowing levels, which it has to be said are low (at 44% in 2024. New Zealand is 39%. Japan 254%, Canada 108%. The USA 122%. China 83%. EU 87%. UK 95%.). There are no fiscal surplus prospects in the next ten years. Maybe one reason the Budget was restrained is that there is suddenly a chance the Government will be re-elected, helped by anti-Trump sentiment and the cozy relationship the opposition Liberal Party has with the US Republicans. (The Murdoch press has avoided running updates to its polls, a clear sign they are worried.) But the election date has not yet been announced.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.63% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.51% today. The China 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 1.90%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.67% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.64% and down -1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.33% and down -1 bp from yesterday. Their 2yr is down -2 bps at 4.013%, so that positive curve is now at +32 bps.

EQUITIES FIRMER
The NZX50 is up +1.2% in late Wednesday trade and among the strongest of the markets we follow. The ASX200 is also up, by +0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.4% in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.9%, while Shanghai is up +0.3% at its open. Singapore has also opened up +0.3%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Tuesday with a minor +0.2% gain, all policy news that seems a bit shallow.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price is little-changed from this time yesterday and now just over US$69/bbl in the US, and just over US$73/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE SLIPS YET AGAIN
The carbon price is down -$1 today at NZ$57/NZU. In between, it got down as low as $54/NZU. There are many sellers and the few buyers aren't in any hurry. We make that its lowest level since August 2024. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$11 from yesterday, now at US$3024/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are now at 91 AUc and unchanged. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 53.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 67 and up +10 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is up +0.8% from this time yesterday, now at US$87,870. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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